Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

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Are conservatives seriously start boycotting Tim Hortons over pulling an Enbridge ad?
http://globalnews.ca/news/2036702/tim-hortons-faces-backlash-after-yanking-enbridge-ads-from-stores/?hootPostID=fe43cf0e03c0343e7de441d2b852e7e4

It says a lot about how conservatives have built such a bunker mentality that they get angry over a private organization pressuring a private company's decision to enter sponsorship agreements with another private company.

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That's certainly a plausible outcome. Yesterday I met someone who ran for the Liberal nomination in this district and she went on about how the Liberal culture has barely changed from the days they were the "natural governing party". And if the 2008/2011 thrashings can't destroy the old guard and replace it with more nimble and versatile leaders, nothing will.

But, Canadian voters are more fickle than the US or UK counterparts. It's also plausible that the NDP storms in on the back of anti-Harper sentiment and the Conservatives are plunged into civil war after the worst result for the right since Confederation. Thanks to a steadily improving economy and a Conservative Party riven by infighting and seen as unelectable, the NDP wins again in 2019. By now, the old guard of the Liberal Party has now literally died off and Justin Trudeau is seen as an experienced, familiar face heading a nimble and versatile machine. By 2023, the NDP is seen as tired and beset with scandals. The Conservatives are still unelectable thanks to Harper's unpopularity. The Liberal Party presents itself as a true alternative, and wins decisively.

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As long as the Liberals significantly improve on their 2011 results and there is no Conservative majority, Trudeau's job as leader is secure. If the Liberals are still in opposition, they can present thenselves as the principled and moderate opposition while the Conservatives are waging their civil war (a formal split of the Conservative Party won't happen, as everyone knows the right will be shut out of power for a generation).

By 2023, the NDP will probably have become tired. Trudeau himself will have significantly aged, and physically seems more mature. In any case, by then anyone refusing to vote Liberal due to their bad memories of Pierre will be in their 70s. This puts him in a great position to decisively win. And, unless the Conservatives win back their lost support this year, Harper's unpopularity will haunt them for many years to come. This final point is predictable. How do the Ontario Liberals hold power other than using the bad memories of Bob Rae and his successor?

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Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?

Other than Brad Wall, I can't think of any (potential) Tory leader who isn't encumbered by their association with Harper. The Liberals (helped indirectly by the NDP) will gleefully point these connections out.

A real danger for the Liberals is if the NDP continues to Blairize under Mulcair and in government. The Liberals will be squeezed on the left and unable to catch Red Tories without alienating its centre-left wing.