Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

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This is beyond absurd: Trudeau said all Liberal senators will sit as Indies and if elected, he'll make "non-partisan" appointments.

This is serious! Less than half of his caucus was elected in 2011, the majority being unelected Senators, so he's shut out over half of his party's representation on the Hill!

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In other news, the 2 former NDP MHAs in Newfoundland that became independents due to concerns with leader Loraine Michael are now Liberals

I can't stand disloyal opportunists like these. If they'd stayed as independents, they may well have been turfed out by their constituents at the next election. As Liberals, especially given polling, they are more likely to hold their seats.

Completely unprincipled, disloyal opportunists.

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I've been trying to keep posts down to a minimum here

HI (Horrible Idea). Your commentary is how I keep informed of most Canadian news.

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That would almost be enough for a majority, if it were not for the Tories pulling ahead in BC. Difficult to get a majority when you're on the nose pretty much everywhere West of Ontario.

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More important that Wildrose leading provincially is Wildrose leading in all geographic areas.

What I find surprising is PC third in Edmonton!? What's the sample size?

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Insert snark, JT will have a memoir out this fall.

I thought you needed to accomplish something before having memoirs published? #inoverhishead

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If the Liberals poll third in seats next year, being party leader of the third largest political party may be his highest pinnacle of success...  Perhaps his memoirs are not out of synch with his career progression...

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His rationale when asked is that voters still have questions and want to know more about him.

I suspect the real reason is the slide revealed in the latest poll... As the honeymoon draws to a close, they need something to keep him in the news - and let's face it, the bump they received was based entirely on personality, not policy, so something like this is what is required to continue focusing attention on the Derek Zoolander of Canadian politics.

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Awesome work!

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Terribly sad. RIP.

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In other AB news: Rajotte still contemplating a PC leadership bid, but waiting on Mandel and Prentice. Nomination battle I really care about is Edmonton-St. Albert.

I'm a big fan of James Rajotte. If he won the leadership, I'd have to seriously consider my provincial party support.

But, as you say, the real nomination of interest is Edmonton-St Albert, and I have my fingers crossed for a good result there.

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Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

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Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

What's wrong with Libby Davies? I would've thought the most hated NDPer would be Pat Martin.

I haven't had any personal interactions with her, but from what I've heard, she's very intolerant of conservatives generally - so her attitude more than anything. Plus, her stance on Israel makes her pretty much the left-wing version of Rob Anders.

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On the flip-side, I have heard that Joe Comartin is a genuinely nice guy.

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So what's up with that Angus Reid poll? Rogue poll or is there a shift afoot?

otherwise normal poll save for a huge swing to the Tories in Ontario.  methinks a 20th poll

That's probably it, but could be that all the talk of a provincial election is focusing attention on that and possibly tainting the grit name?

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As Njall notes, the issue in that poll is undecided voters, which will almost certainly (but not definitely) break for the progressives. This would no doubt be attributed to a bump from the new leader, but realistically, the new leader probably won't have contributed much to that, unless it's someone like Rajotte, or if Morton ran again (and won this time). Red Tories are not the ones deserting the party and therefore not the reason Wildrose is once more leading in the polls, so changing one red leader for another will likely have negligible impact on poll support.

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Common in Australia, but they're more quick with the knives, and they don't poll the party members.

Depends which party.  I know for a fact that Labor polls the party members.

Those Labor spills didn't happen at a leadership convention.

Yes, as Hatman notes, spills aren't triggered by party members, and the leadership vote was only extended to Labor members (rather than just MPs) for the first time prior to the most recent one.

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Yeah, but by 2023, a tsunami could have wiped Nova Scotia away and loons could have evolved laser beam-shooting eyes.

A tsunami hitting Vancouver would likely have a greater political impact.

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A positive review of the NDP Throne Speech by well-respected Conservative and former Director of Communications for Wildrose, Brock Harrison.

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Does anyone know a seats calculator according to %? Thanks.

I have one, I think Earl has one, Citizen Hats has one, and someone else (name eludes me) also has one, and those ate just the ones I confident exist (although could be mistaken). I think they all (or most) work off very similar maths. That said, I'm not how predictable this election will be at the seats level.