Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:15:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159491 times)
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« on: January 24, 2014, 01:46:41 PM »

Country singer George Canyon will run for the CPC nomination in Bow River
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2014, 08:29:51 PM »

For those who are interested: the policy resolutions that have been submitted to the LPC's convention.  One that jumped out to me was number 97, calling for a trial of a guaranteed income supplement.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2014, 07:43:56 PM »

Darshan Kang (MLA for Calgary-McCall) will run for the federal Liberal nomination in Calgary Skyview for 2015
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2014, 11:53:18 AM »

More important that Wildrose leading provincially is Wildrose leading in all geographic areas.

What I find surprising is PC third in Edmonton!? What's the sample size?

Sample size of the whole poll was 1000, with 806 decided voters.  The Edmonton sample size was 266 (compared to 275 in Calgary and 264 in the rest of Alberta).

http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/AB%20Provincial%20Poll%20-%20February%2028%202014.pdf

In terms of all 1000 people polled, the results were as follows:

Wildrose: 28%
PC: 17%
NDP: 11%
Liberal: 10%
Alberta Party: 2%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 24%
Don't know/Wouldn't vote: 8%

As an active PCer, I'm obviously viewing this with a strong bias.  However, when I saw this, I was reminded of a poll from 2010 that showed 42% Wildrose to 27% PC.  We've pulled ourselves back from being this low in the polls before, and in the same timeframe.  It will certainly be tough, but considering that this poll was conducted after the media has been hounding the government over expenses related to government plane usage for the better part of two months, things could be a lot worse.

Something else of note: assuming that this poll is correct, the Wildrose has gained very little support from the PCs since the election.  The majority of PC losses in the polls seem to be related to gains by the Liberals and New Democrats.  The WRP, according to this, has only gained about 4 points, compared to a combined 11 points for the NDP and Liberals.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2014, 12:18:36 AM »


It looks like Environics disagrees.

PC: 36
WRP: 33
ALP: 18
NDP: 12
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2014, 04:54:09 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2014, 04:57:16 PM by Mideast Assemblyman Njall »


Definitely.  Judging by the regional samples, I could see the PCs holding on to their majority, but if they were to do so then it would be much closer than in 2012.  They seem to be doing a decent job of holding their ground in Calgary, Edmonton, and the rural north.  However, it looks like the WRP would pick up a fair amount of the remaining rural PC seats in southern and central Alberta.  Seats in the province's smaller cities could be interesting to watch as well.  The PC's hold most of the seats where small cities make up at least part of the riding population, but if enough PC voters from the last election were to move over to other parties, then these would be vulnerable.  Notably, there's a decent chance of Lethbridge-West going NDP, and an outside chance of Red Deer-North going Liberal, depending on how the voters ultimately vote.



Don Braid is certainly loving this; it's giving him lots of catchy headlines for him column.  But the PO does need to get its act together. 
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2014, 06:39:27 PM »


That's certainly the feeling that a couple commentators out here have been getting from this situation.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/op-ed/Lakritz+Double+standard+takes+wing+Redford+Klein/9610511/story.html

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Klassen+Attacks+Redford+about+gender/9598527/story.html


The Tories would be wise to dump Redford. I can't see them winning with her as leader.

At this point, I don't either.  But at the same time, I don't get the feeling that we're up for another leadership contest.



I'm not sure how accurate these allegations are.  Keep in mind that Webber's never been a friend of the premier's.  In fact, he was pretty vocally trying to get people to vote against her in the leadership review at our last AGM.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2014, 01:41:35 PM »

On a bit of a lighter note, here's yet another demonstration of SUN news' quality of journalism:



It was a good guess, but that gentleman is Jim McCormick, President of PC Alberta.  I believe that Dave Hancock's in the back somewhere, behind a few people.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2014, 08:46:23 PM »

It's shameful that she had to leave in this manner.  I just hope that the debate can return to policy, rather than the WRP carrying on about negligible expense issues.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2014, 08:50:58 PM »

As expected, speculation is already starting on who will run to replace her.  Stephen Mandel, Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Jim Prentice, Gary Mar, and Thomas Lukaszuk have all had their names thrown around as potential contenders.  Supposedly Nenshi didn't give a firm 'no' when a reporter asked if he would run, but regardless, I doubt that a candidacy by him would go over really well.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2014, 09:59:27 PM »


As expected, speculation is already starting on who will run to replace her.  Stephen Mandel, Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Jim Prentice, Gary Mar, and Thomas Lukaszuk have all had their names thrown around as potential contenders.  Supposedly Nenshi didn't give a firm 'no' when a reporter asked if he would run, but regardless, I doubt that a candidacy by him would go over really well.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2014, 10:22:40 AM »

According to Calgary Herald reporters' comments on twitter, Hancock and Griffiths have both said that they won't run for premier.  Presumably, this means that Hancock will take the interim premier position until a new leader is selected.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2014, 12:57:08 PM »

I'm sure this comes as no surprise, but Rob Anders is being...well, himself again.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2014, 02:20:49 PM »

On a lighter note, who's everyone's favourite premier of your respective province? Mine's in my sig.

Probably Peter Lougheed
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2014, 06:55:54 PM »

Ken Hughes becomes 1st candidate to enter race for Leader of PC Alberta
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2014, 11:12:02 PM »

Looks like Prentice is actually running for PC leader.  Go figure.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2014, 12:22:02 PM »

Breaking: Brian Mason will be stepping down as Alberta NDP leader in October.  In other words: two autumn leadership races in Alberta!
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2014, 02:55:55 PM »


Nothing surprising, in the aftermath of Redford resignation. It will tighten later, through.

Indeed. I'm curious how much of a bump Prentice will give them.

A big one, if we're lucky.  One thing to note from that poll is that a quarter of the sample was undecided, and if this is anything like polls we saw leading up to the 2012 election (including from around the time that Stelmach stepped down), a large amount of those undecideds are past PC voters who are at this point unsure about whether they'll come home.  From that perspective, a big bump from Prentice could certainly make a comeback possible.  The WRP is definitely ahead at the moment, and there's absolutely no denying that.  However, PC fundraising numbers are still strong, and assuming that this poll is right, the WRP is still within the margin or error of their 2012 result (when you factor in all respondents).

Here's the poll document, for anyone who's interested.  Total sample results were 38% WRP, 25% undecided, 16% PC, 12% NDP, 8% Liberal, 1% other
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2014, 09:54:46 PM »

Alberta Infrastructure Minister Ric McIver will step down from cabinet in order to run for PC leader.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2014, 05:39:29 PM »


I highly doubt that this is true, at least in its entirety.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2014, 01:50:01 AM »



Alberta projection roughly from the Leger Poll (don't have proper cross tabs yet)

Overall, I could certainly see a map very similar to this one emerging from an election with these numbers.  However, I do have comments about a handful of these ridings:

1. Calgary-Elbow: This is Alison Reford's seat, and is undoubtably coloured blue here due to her strong performance in 2012 (she got 58%, which was roughly double the percentage received by the 2nd place (Wildrose) candidate, and was the strongest showing by a PC in Calgary in 2012).  However, given all that has gone on in the past few months, there is no doubt that she would lose this time around if she decided to run again for some reason.  If she decides to retire, the chances of another PC candidate holding the riding depends largely on the PC's ability to hold Liberal voters.  The Liberals consistently received at least 30% in Calgary-Elbow between in every election from 1989 to 2008, including a 2007 by-election that they won.  If they were to gain back their old voters, the Liberals could conceivably win this riding.  If the PCs keep the voters that they brought over last time (unlikely), they'll keep it.  Otherwise, a vote split between the PCs and ALP could allow the WRP to pick up this seat

2. Calgary-McCall: Currently held by Liberal MLA Darshan Kang, this is a lower-income, immigrant-heavy riding, and results have even greater dependence than usual on parties' GOTV efforts.  Last election, Kang's 6.4% margin over the WRP candidate represented a mere 671 votes.  The Liberals never won here until Kang's 2008 victory, and although they seem to have a fairly solid base of about 25-30% of voters here, their current strength seems to be partially based on having him as the MLA.  Since he's running federally in Calgary Skyview in 2015, it is likely that he will step down before the next election.  I'm not saying that the Liberals will lose without him, but given the closeness of ALP, WRP, and PC results last time, and the nature of the riding, this seat can't be counted on by the ALP to stay red.

3.  Other Calgary ridings with PC incumbents: especially since this new poll actually shows a tightening race, I find it doubtful that all 18(-ish, dependent on future events) PC MLAs would lose their seats.  Some MLAs such as Ken Hughes (Calgary-West) and Manmeet Bhullar (Calgary-Greenway) seem to be well-respected, and had fairly good margins of victory in 2012.  I certainly wouldn't count some of them out quite yet.  Additionally, if my absolutely-not-conclusively-proven belief that Chinese-Canadians are a fairly PC-friendly voting bloc, this factor could help PC incumbents in Northwest Calgary to hold on to their seats.

4. Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity: These ridings are coloured red due to their higher-than-average ALP vote shares in 2012.  In both cases, these ridings had ALP incumbents who retired in 2012, and both of these ridings elected PC candidates in the election.  Now, depending on the ALP candidates in these ridings, they certainly could present pickup opportunities.  After all, both of these ridngs do contain fairly progressive (for Calgary, in any case) neighborhoods.  Other factors could come into play though, especially in Calgary-Varsity, where incumbent MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans is currently an Independent, and it is unknown whether she will run for re-election and/or rejoin the PC caucus before the next election.  

5. St. Albert: I find it very hard to believe that this riding would go Wildrose.  It is another one of those ridings that I consider to be fairly progressive, for Alberta, and it has a history of electing progressive MLAs (it voted NDP in 1989, and Liberal in 1993 and 2004).  Like Calgary-Elbow, this riding has had a solid Liberal base in its recent history, and it would appear that the 2012 election saw the majority of past Liberal voters voting PC.  However, even if ALL of those voters went back, the PCs would still be neck-and-neck with the WRP here, and I believe that the PCs would ultimately pull off a victory.

6. Edmonton-Manning: the NDP did perform well here in 2012.  Considering that the NDP vote in Edmonton is MUCH lower in the suburbs compared to the more central parts of the city, the NDP vote share here strikes me as a little odd.  Now, I don't know the particular reason why they did so well here last time, and I don't have any evidence for why they woudn't continue to improve.  It's just a gut feeling of mine to be skeptical of possible NDP gains in the Edmonton suburbs.

7. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: This riding is likely coloured green due to the WRP's heightened performance here in 2012 (they had an incumbent MLA; a floor-crosser).  Additionally, both of the Fort McMurray ridings seem to vote quite uniformly.  While this could mean that FM-Conklin would go WRP, the more likely occurance given the PC strength in Northern Rural Alberta would be a PC victory in both ridings.

8. Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: I only mention this riding because the WRP candidate in 2012 was fairly high profile, which could skew the results here.  Additionally, the local PC association has an extremely large warchest (approximately $175,000).  While money spent is by no means a guarantee of victory, their monetary reserve here will certainly come in handy.  

9. Red Deer North: This riding did have a high result for the ALP compared to a lot of other ridings (they got 17%), but the Liberals don't have a history of winning here.  I could be wrong, but this seat would likely be a PC-WRP tossup.

10. Lethbridge East: unlike RD North, this riding was Liberal turf from 1993 to 2011, when incumbent MLA Bridget Pastoor crossed the floor to the PCs.  In 2012, she appeared to take a very large amount of her former voters with her to the PCs.  If this was due to her personal popularity, then she should be able to hold the riding for the PCs.  Otherwise, I could legitimately see this goin back to the ALP.

11. Banff-Cochrane: While this is likely the most progressive rural riding in Alberta, the Liberals have never come close to winning this, even in the Liberal surge of 1993.  The PCs will even be lucky to hold onto this riding, although it is possible if they manage to hold and build on their numbers from 2012, specifically in Banff and Canmore.

EDIT: It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, crosstabs will have on this projection.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2014, 10:58:26 AM »

You still voting Tory next time Njall?

I certainly will, although the biggest reason for my doing so is my desire to see my own MLA (Linda Johnson) re-elected.  She's a very hardworking MLA, and she's quite visible within the constituency.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2014, 01:26:31 AM »

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2014, 03:16:29 AM »

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.

Your PC scores in your profile show that you're left socially as well. Unless your views have changed?

Those scores are from back when I first registered for the forum.  At that time, I wasn't nearly as involved in local and provincial politics as I am now, and I had a tendency to take strong policy positions without much regard for the positive and negative consequences of having those beliefs enacted.  Anyways, I ran the test again, and my econ. score is apparently unchanged at -5.68, but my social score is now supposedly -0.17.



care to elaborate on your social conservatism?

A more accurate description of my social views would be that I am a social moderate (in the Canadian context; if I was living in the US I would certainly be a social liberal), tilting conservative on a few issues, and with a moderately conservative attitude about change.  I am certainly very far from the textbook definition of a socon.  For instance, I am completely supportive of same-sex marriage and homosexual rights.  That said, I don't always hold positions that are that straightforward.

Regarding the abortion debate, I would consider myself to be pro-choice.  Safe, legal access to abortions is a much preferable status quo to having multitudes of illegal abortions.  However, abortion without a concrete reason (such as a medical concern) becomes much less palatable to me after the first trimester.  I would also like to see contraceptive use promoted as much as possible, so that the need for abortions to be performed in the first place can be reduced.

Overall, I have a fairly anti-drug attitude.  I don't count myself as supportive of marijuana legalization, and would be completely against it if it wasn't for the paradox of marijuana being illegal while alcohol and tobacco (generally considered to be more damaging) are legal.  At this point in time, I would support marijuana decriminalization and refocusing efforts to target marijuana dealers rather than users, but I can't say that I support outright legalization.  With other drugs, I would be uncomfortable even with decriminalization. 

I wouldn't consider myself to be very religious, but I do still believe in strong morals.  And while I don't personally participate, I do appreciate the (oftentimes, not always) valuable role that religious institutions play in our society.

On the topic of institutions, I am also a staunch monarchist, and I believe in a strong, well-funded military (again, in the Canadian context; the Americans do certainly need to cut their defense budget).  I would also be open to making all Canadian youths spend a certain period of time (say, a year) in the military, with a civil service alternative for those who are completely opposed to military service.  I find that many people of my generation have a shocking lack of respect for authority figures.

That's the best I can do at explaining it, for now.  I tend to focus more on economic issues, and my opinions about those issues tend to be stronger and more well-defined as a result.



And the same to you! Smiley
Logged
Njall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -5.91

« Reply #24 on: July 08, 2014, 12:44:46 AM »

It would appear that Mike Allen (MLA for Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo) has rejoined the PC caucus; a fact that I was unaware of until I ran into him at tonight's Calgary-West PC Association Stampede barbeque.

Looks like caucus voted on and approved his re-entry at a meeting this week.  For those who don't remember, Allen left caucus last summer after attempting to hire two "prostitutes" (who were actually undercover cops) while on a government trip to Minnesota.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.