Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

Participated in a Forum poll today about the state if politics in Ontario. Got the seasonal questions about "Happy Holidays" vs. "Merry Christmas."

I was disappointed that they didn't ask where I place myself on the political spectrum. To them, I'll just look like a typical Liberal, which isn't very accurate. But whatevs. 

What are you exactly? I've never been able to figure it out.

People laugh when I say "pro-union centre-rightist," but I do think that's the most accurate description. In the end I guess it evens out to being a bit of a moderate. I will vote for the federal Conservatives for the foreseeable future, but the PCs in Ontario have disqualified themselves from contention during the last few elections. Probably would've voted for the party under Jon Tory. Christine Elliott may yet be able to win my vote. But right now I have to go for the Liberals, even though I'm disgusted by their lack of restraint in certain areas.

Thanks for the info. I don't follow Ontario politics too closely, but even I was tempted to vote Liberal last time. Too bad Wynne insisted on buggering up a decent solution to pension reform

Could you elaborate a bit on the the Liberals' "lack of restraint"?

[DC Al Fine]

My year end gift to myself: A decade's worth of Nova Scotia polls in graph form.

[Njall]

My year end gift to myself: A decade's worth of Nova Scotia polls in graph form.

Nicely done.  It's interesting (at least from my view, with little knowledge of what caused this) to see the levels of party support become markedly divergent over the decade.


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In Alberta political news, a poll from Mainstreet Technologies has been released showing the PCs at 44%, the WRP at 20%, the NDP at 18%, the Liberals at 14%, and the Alberta Party at 4% with decided voters.  20% of voters are undecided.  The poll also shows Prentice with a 63/26 approval rating.

[DC Al Fine]

Given how uniform their distribution is, Wildrose could go seatless with those numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 51% econ approval, 49% Harper approval. The leadership # are of course name ID, but fun nonetheless.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus has the Tories up 1 nationally.

Poll has some funky regionals. Liberals only up 12 in Atlantic, Tories only up 19 in Alberta.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos also has Mulcair with a slightly higher (57/55) approval than Trudeau but more voters believe Trudeau's ready to be PM than Mulcair.

[Njall]

Given how uniform their distribution is, Wildrose could go seatless with those numbers.

That would certainly be possible.  Barnes might be able to hang on in Cypress-Medicine Hat (he won by 18 points in 2012), but that could very well be it.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the NDP next time around.  At 18%, they would be sitting at almost double their vote share from the last election - they'd almost certainly get official opposition in that case, and would probably pick up 3 or 4 seats in Edmonton (as well as having an outside shot at Lethbridge-West).

[politicus]

Ipsos also has Mulcair with a slightly higher (57/55) approval than Trudeau but more voters believe Trudeau's ready to be PM than Mulcair.

Why do you think that is? Mulcair has a lot more experience incl. being part of a provincial government. The natural distribution would seem to be that people loved handsome, charismatic youngish Trudeau, but still recognized that he was a bit of a light weight and that old greyfaced Mulcair was after all a more qualified leader

[You kip if you want to...]

Ipsos also has Mulcair with a slightly higher (57/55) approval than Trudeau but more voters believe Trudeau's ready to be PM than Mulcair.

Why do you think that is? Mulcair has a lot more experience incl. being part of a provincial government. The natural distribution would seem to be that people loved handsome, charismatic youngish Trudeau, but still recognized that he was a bit of a light weight and that old greyfaced Mulcair was after all a more quaified leader

Because when you've already had one Prime Minister Trudeau, another doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting Ian MacDonald scooplet: NDP internals have the Bloc barely in double digits, compared to their 15-18% in public polls.

[Poirot]

CROP federal: 33/30/21/12 among Francophones, 37/30/17/13 topline.

Quebec City: 37/31/21.

Based on that CROP poll Too Close To Call has a seat distribution of LPC 36 seats, NDP 35 and PC 7.

[DC Al Fine]

Merry Christmas to all the Canuckleheads on Atlas

[RogueBeaver]

Potential retirements: Oliver, MacKay, Shea, the first two deny they're leaving. Shea has said for a while she'll reflect over the holidays. Given the likely Gritnami out East, wouldn't be surprised if she bows out. Oliver leaving would probably mean Finance Minister Clement if Harper wins.

Immigrant vote VIP as ever.

Harper would be in rather exalted company if he wins a 4th and final term.

[RogueBeaver]

Craig Oliver said on QP today that Liberal and NDP emissaries are meeting, with their leaders' knowledge and consent, to ensure that the harassment scandal doesn't preclude "making some kind of deal working on other issues outside of this one." How subtle.

Meanwhile on West Block, Delacourt revealed that Dipper staffers complain to journalists if a Liberal is quoted above a Dipper in an article. More importantly, Mulcair himself recently said publicly: "when the media runs Trudeau before NDP, write them a letter. Give them sh**t." LOL.

[RogueBeaver]

Good Wells article on the parties' electoral challenges.

Angus-Reid: 34/31/22, BC 34/31/25, ON 40/34/20.

[DC Al Fine]

And here are the Newfoundland polls. Yes those are real numbers for the Tories. They managed to stay above 70% in the polls for 3+ years and broke 80% twice. Just freaking incredible. Also, how the mighty have fallen

[RogueBeaver]

Braid: Tumultuous year in AB ends with a reset to dynastic supremacy. Wonder if they have any young stars capable of shooting for Klein's record or beyond...

[swl]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30627630

[Zanas]

Well Edmonton just beat Vienna's yearly record in one day. And I guess some US cities can do it in one hour.

[RogueBeaver]

Party subsidies disappear tonight.

PQ still not acknowledging their real GE problem. Then there's the closely related problem of the splinter parties, something whose roots go back 15+ years. If they're smart they'll tap Cloutier or Hivon in 2018.

[RogueBeaver]

PNP's top 5 blunders of 2014: 5) Calandra 4) Trudeau gaffes 3) Fantino 2) Hudak/Horwath 1) PKP.

[DC Al Fine]

I will be attending a wedding in Winnipeg this summer. Any ideas for stuff to do in that god forsaken hell hole Manitoba?

[DC Al Fine]

Mulcair promises PR if NDP wins election.

If only, if only...

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt's been banging this drum for at least a year. He thinks Mulcair should go deep on a national industrial strategy and abandon core policy positions (resources, guns, Sherbrooke, etc.) he inherited. If he & other English Canadian journos define "centre" as "Liberal-lite", as they seem to be, then that's not happening.