Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

No, the NDP floor is much lower than you think. Maybe 15?

[MaxQue]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

No, the NDP floor is much lower than you think. Maybe 15?

It would require a collapse in Quebec.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

No, the NDP floor is much lower than you think. Maybe 15?

It would require a collapse in Quebec.

Yeah. Barring a wave or change in alignment I'd put the NDP floor around 20 or so.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why? They've only ever got more than 20% in two elections in their entire history. Of course it would require a collapse in Quebec to get lower than that again, but that's not outside the realm of possibility, considering they've only voted NDP once before.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is Canada. How can anyone take any of these things as a given?

[Hatman 🍁]

Once upon the time the NDP's floor was 6%. Don't see it going that low in the near future.

[MaxQue]

Why? They've only ever got more than 20% in two elections in their entire history. Of course it would require a collapse in Quebec to get lower than that again, but that's not outside the realm of possibility, considering they've only voted NDP once before.

Federally, Quebec swings around once every decade. 1984 (Liberal->PC), 1993 (PC->Bloc), 2004 (Liberal->Bloc), 2011 (Bloc->NDP). NDP should be safe until early 2020s.

[Smid]

So what's up with that Angus Reid poll? Rogue poll or is there a shift afoot?

otherwise normal poll save for a huge swing to the Tories in Ontario.  methinks a 20th poll

That's probably it, but could be that all the talk of a provincial election is focusing attention on that and possibly tainting the grit name?

[RogueBeaver]

More Prentice PC buzz, believe when seen.

[RogueBeaver]

Robocall investigation is closed.

[MaxQue]

Robocall investigation is closed.

Disgusting. Again, the Conservative Party used their power to protect themselves.

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, Poilievre will support some Senate FEA amendments, so looks like it'll still pass on time.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos national has 33/33/24. Only 23% following FEA debate closely, in line with Angus-Reid & Political Traction.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Only" 23?

[RogueBeaver]

Or to put it another way, 77% aren't following closely.

[RogueBeaver]

Some more FEA numbers: 87% think ID should be presented to vote, 70% support eliminating vouching, 52% don't care if it makes voting difficult for some. All # from CTV's Richard Madan.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

[RogueBeaver]

Supremes rule as expected on the Senate: 7/50 for elections and term limits, unanimity for abolition, feds can abolish QC property requirement without consulting Assnat.

[Citizen Hats]

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

I think it's just more that 52% of Canadians are sufficiently comfortable and have long been sufficiently comfortable to simply not be able to grasp how difficult this can be for some people's circumstances. It's so very far outside your typical middle class Canadian's life experience to not be able to prove your identity that they simply don't get it

[RogueBeaver]

A fair few FEA amendments.

[DC Al Fine]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

[MaxQue]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

Good decision. Schools aren't allowed to dictate how students must act out of school.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

I think it's just more that 52% of Canadians are sufficiently comfortable and have long been sufficiently comfortable to simply not be able to grasp how difficult this can be for some people's circumstances. It's so very far outside your typical middle class Canadian's life experience to not be able to prove your identity that they simply don't get it

Yes, most middle class voters have driver's licenses. I have an expired one (I have no need or desire to drive anymore) and was lucky enough to be able to use it last summer as ID in a by-election (they didn't check whether it was valid, and I'm not sure if it even matters, as it still has a photo of me).  My partner even used her British passport! We also used some bills to prove where we lived.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

Good decision. Schools aren't allowed to dictate how students must act out of school.

Bad decision. It's not as if those students couldn't go elsewhere if they don't like the restriction, and I utterly fail to see how it prevents Trinity Western's students from being good lawyers.  The idea that we have to force people to be universally tolerant is one of the more intolerant ideas I have come across.  Now if one could actually show how TW's policy negatively impacts its students, I'd be supportive of the action against the school, but so far no one has.