Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

Pandering to the middle class does nothing to prevent further alienating voters like me. (Not that I can be any more alienated from the Liberals)

[RogueBeaver]

QC budget will be next week, and they're still leaving the door slightly open for a March dissolution. In which case it'd be a mini-budget.

[DC Al Fine]

Someone made a positive comment about Harper at work today... yeah it's not really news, but I'm a student and I live in Atlantic Canada, so it's news for me.

[RogueBeaver]

Flaherty's publicly doubting income splitting. I don't believe Flaherty quits unless it actually happens, but he's been acting a bit strangely recently.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau: budgets balance themselves. In the same universe where Santa, the Easter Bunny and unicorns exist, undoubtedly.

[DC Al Fine]

Flaherty's publicly doubting income splitting. I don't believe Flaherty quits unless it actually happens, but he's been acting a bit strangely recently.

Boo, hiss!!

Trudeau: budgets balance themselves. In the same universe where Santa, the Easter Bunny and unicorns exist, undoubtedly.

This is good for the Tory narrative. Trudeau's airheadedness is astounding.

[RogueBeaver]

Either that or he's to Mulcair's left on budgeting, and we know which one it is.

[RogueBeaver]

Check out Andre Marin's Twitter feed now. He's going completely apesh**t on Rob Silver - and Marin personally Tweets most of the time.

[RogueBeaver]

There will be a spring Quebec election, with a minimalist budget next Thursday. All that's left to decide is D-Day and E-Day. When that's known I'll put up the thread.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath is ramping up pressure on the Grits, but still mum on an election. Grits don't feel they'll survive.

Oh FFS, socons will vote for Kenney at the appropriate time regardless of his marital status.

[RogueBeaver]

So Trudeau's big economic plan is a spending orgy in areas of provincial jurisdiction. Which is exactly what Paul Martin did.

Yeah, Poilievre's one of our MVPs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Poilievre's one of our MVPs.

Most valuable prick? The man is a tool, and the last press conference I saw him in (the rebuttal to Trudeau's Senate shakeup) he was just terrible at attacking Trudeau and defending the Tory position. This is when I actually agreed with the Conservatives on something.

[Hash]

Yeah, Poilievre has always come off as an insufferable useless hack/prick to me and I don't get why everybody loves him now. Probably because the idiot media love "young politicians" who are gonna "shake things up"

[MaxQue]

If the Conservative MVP is a tape recorder, it's not going well for them.

[RogueBeaver]

Mexican visa restrictions will remain in place.

How Heenan Blaikie imploded.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario poll from Ipsos: 34/31/31 among all voters, 37/33/27 among LV. 60/40 wrong track, 32/31/28 preferred premier. Being Ipsos, they also include regional numbers. Seat guesstimate, anyone?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario poll from Ipsos: 34/31/31 among all voters, 37/33/27 among LV. 60/40 wrong track, 32/31/28 preferred premier. Being Ipsos, they also include regional numbers. Seat guesstimate, anyone?

I wonder if Central Ontario = 705 and Northern Ontario = 807. If so, then their regional descriptors are very misleading.

Good to see the NDP ahead in SW Ontario. Outside of Windsor and maybe London, it's not exactly the most traditional NDP part of the province. The traditional NDP areas are downtown Toronto and Northern Ontario, but I suspect the NDP is struggling in DT Toronto from those numbers. If the Liberals slip to third province-wide, I expect Toronto voters to start swinging en masse to the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP is 3rd (43L/29C/26N) in 416 and 905 (48C/28L/20N).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some 519 (SW Ontario) ridings that I think the NDP would pick up with those numbers:

Windsor West (duh)
London North Centre
Brant
Guelph
Kitchener Centre
Cambridge
Sarnia-Lambton

Distant possibilities (rural seats):
Perth-Middlesex (strong campaign in Stratford could swing it)
Huron-Bruce (previous target in 2011)
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (strong Green presence in the past, could switch to the NDP)

NDP is 3rd (43L/29C/26N) in 416 and 905 (48C/28L/20N).

Yes, I noticed that. But, if the Libs drop to 3rd province-wide, I expect a 3 way race in the 416. The 905 will always be a write off for the NDP, except for Hamilton, parts of Niagara, Bramalea-Gore-Malton and maybe Oshawa.

[RogueBeaver]

They don't specify if the regional # are under the regular or LV screen. Suspect the former. Either way, good news for both our parties. Question is whether Horwath pulls the trigger.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm hoping the Liberals will realize the huge threat of their downfall, and give the NDP huge concessions to stay in power.

[RogueBeaver]

Transit tax, full Liberal term, possibility of triggering an election which results in a Tory win (even with an NDP OO) all factor in. I'll believe an election when I see someone roll that die.

[MaxQue]

How come Windsor West isn't NDP-held?

[Hatman 🍁]

How come Windsor West isn't NDP-held?

Terrible candidate last election.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath just called Wynne's bluff.

Now this is downright hilarious: PLQ might bring back Charest if Marois gets a majority.

Speaking of which: Assnat will be dissolved March 11 for an April 14 election. Marois is now in majority territory per CROP: 40/34/16. Marois leads 30/22 on best premier.