Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[MaxQue]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

Good decision. Schools aren't allowed to dictate how students must act out of school.

[MaxQue]

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

I think it's just more that 52% of Canadians are sufficiently comfortable and have long been sufficiently comfortable to simply not be able to grasp how difficult this can be for some people's circumstances. It's so very far outside your typical middle class Canadian's life experience to not be able to prove your identity that they simply don't get it

Yes, most middle class voters have driver's licenses. I have an expired one (I have no need or desire to drive anymore) and was lucky enough to be able to use it last summer as ID in a by-election (they didn't check whether it was valid, and I'm not sure if it even matters, as it still has a photo of me).  My partner even used her British passport! We also used some bills to prove where we lived.

In Quebec, for voting, it's clearly written in training documentation than an expired driving licence is perfectly valid.  Same thing for an expired Health card or an expired passport.

[MaxQue]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

Good decision. Schools aren't allowed to dictate how students must act out of school.

Bad decision. It's not as if those students couldn't go elsewhere if they don't like the restriction, and I utterly fail to see how it prevents Trinity Western's students from being good lawyers.  The idea that we have to force people to be universally tolerant is one of the more intolerant ideas I have come across.  Now if one could actually show how TW's policy negatively impacts its students, I'd be supportive of the action against the school, but so far no one has.

In my mind, that's a violation of the Charter provision on forbidding discrimination. I doubt than Trinity Western will properly teach those notions, as it's going against their agenda.

[MaxQue]

In Montreal, Independent and bigoted city councillor for Loyola district (Côte-des-Neiges-Notre-Dame-de-Grâce) Jeremy Searle was almost kicked out of council.

Two weeks ago, during the borough council meeting, he said than independentists were like insects needing to be exterminated.

Today, at the city council, he asked a question to the mayor and the mayor answered than he wanted an answer about that. Searle said than it had no link with the question and than the mayor had a head problem. That caused the Speaker anger and Project Montreal wanted to expell him from the council.

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2014/04/28/separatists-as-insects-searle-makes-things-worse-for-himself

EDIT: We can also had than he was elected in a wierd 5-way race. 23-21-17-17-17 (Independent-Projet Montréal-Team Denis Coderre-Mélanie Joly Group-Coalition Montreal)

[MaxQue]

I thought NDG was a bunch of yuppies. How'd he even get a quarter of the vote?

I posted about him in the 2013 election thread, noting he had a tendency to say wierd things and than he was born in Bristol, UK.

He is also there since decades. Reputation built in part on painting white circles around potholes in 1998 to force the city to repair them quicker.

Defeated in 1990 for the Democratic Coalition for Loyola ward. Elected in 1994 for Montrealers Party for Loyola ward, elected as an independent in 1998, reeelected as Union Montreal in 2001. Defeated when he ran for borough mayorship in 2005 (for Team Jeremy Searle). Tried coming back in 2009 in his ward, as an independent, lost, but won back in 2013.

Article about him from 2009 (in English): http://www.lesactualites.ca/01_anciensite/?site=CDN&section=page&1=C090826&2=C090826_JeremySearle

[MaxQue]

Dippers have a 38/24 lead among Francophone voters, 33/32/20/12 in QC generally.

Despite a 1% lead for NDP, it would be a large lead in seats for them. Bloc might hope to gain a few seat because of NDP/Liberal division, Conservatives are obviously not going well.

[MaxQue]

New AB poll: Wildrose 50, Progs 21.

Wow. And the Liberals are in fourth!

Nothing surprising, in the aftermath of Redford resignation. It will tighten later, through.

[MaxQue]

I thought NDG was a bunch of yuppies. How'd he even get a quarter of the vote?

I posted about him in the 2013 election thread, noting he had a tendency to say wierd things and than he was born in Bristol, UK.

He is also there since decades. Reputation built in part on painting white circles around potholes in 1998 to force the city to repair them quicker.

Defeated in 1990 for the Democratic Coalition for Loyola ward. Elected in 1994 for Montrealers Party for Loyola ward, elected as an independent in 1998, reeelected as Union Montreal in 2001. Defeated when he ran for borough mayorship in 2005 (for Team Jeremy Searle). Tried coming back in 2009 in his ward, as an independent, lost, but won back in 2013.

Article about him from 2009 (in English): http://www.lesactualites.ca/01_anciensite/?site=CDN&section=page&1=C090826&2=C090826_JeremySearle

He denied than the issue was his alcoholism and than the odor of alcohol during the council was from drunk journalists.

He said than he had an issue with alcohol, like he has an issue with his age (he thinks he is 2 times too old).
He also said than people not drinking alcohol during supper are losers.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201404/30/01-4762414-probleme-dalcool-le-conseiller-searle-se-defend-et-en-rajoute.php

That guy is dangerous.

[MaxQue]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

No, there's maps there now!

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

[MaxQue]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

No, there's maps there now!

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

Works for me, he does have maps for 1979-1984 now

Indeed. Sadly, I would have prefered not seeing my riding voting Social Credit in 1979.

[MaxQue]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

No, there's maps there now!

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

I thought Reform was winning a lot of seats for the early 80's...

Well, it's fixed now but, as me, you'll probably have to clear the cache (press the refresh button while holding the Ctrl key under Firefox).

[MaxQue]

I thought NDG was a bunch of yuppies. How'd he even get a quarter of the vote?

I posted about him in the 2013 election thread, noting he had a tendency to say wierd things and than he was born in Bristol, UK.

He is also there since decades. Reputation built in part on painting white circles around potholes in 1998 to force the city to repair them quicker.

Defeated in 1990 for the Democratic Coalition for Loyola ward. Elected in 1994 for Montrealers Party for Loyola ward, elected as an independent in 1998, reeelected as Union Montreal in 2001. Defeated when he ran for borough mayorship in 2005 (for Team Jeremy Searle). Tried coming back in 2009 in his ward, as an independent, lost, but won back in 2013.

Article about him from 2009 (in English): http://www.lesactualites.ca/01_anciensite/?site=CDN&section=page&1=C090826&2=C090826_JeremySearle

He denied than the issue was his alcoholism and than the odor of alcohol during the council was from drunk journalists.

He said than he had an issue with alcohol, like he has an issue with his age (he thinks he is 2 times too old).
He also said than people not drinking alcohol during supper are losers.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201404/30/01-4762414-probleme-dalcool-le-conseiller-searle-se-defend-et-en-rajoute.php

That guy is dangerous.

At the borough council meeting, he refused to resign and called Richard Bergeron, leader of Projet Montréal, "a promoter of terrorists".

[MaxQue]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

No, there's maps there now!

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

I think this may be a browser issue. It works for me in Safari.

It's worked after I cleared the cache.

[MaxQue]

Some of the BC ridings from 1979 seem both familiar and strange, like Cariboo-Chilcotin stretching all the way down to Howe Sound past Squamish.   My first thought was that it sort of made sense, since the Sea-to-Sky highway wasn't built until the 1960s, and there was only ferry and rail access to Squamish, but then I remembered that Cayoosh Pass, the route north of that region, wasn't motorable until the 1970s. The only other way not-by-rail in or out of that region is by some shifting logging roads may not have existed in those days.

I'm amazed how few ridings suburban Toronto had. Brampton isn't even worth an entire riding, only two for Mississauga and only one riding for the whole of Vaughan, Markham etc.

Look at the results in some of those ridings too. Some ridings had 100000+ voters.

Montreal is the same. Montreal northern exurbs are 2 ridings (and parts of 3 rural ridings), Montreal southern exurbs are 4 ridings, Laval is 3 (right now, it's 5.5, 6 and 3.5 and will be
7, 7, 4 in 2015)

[MaxQue]

The expanded Atlas also us to explore further back in the history and see some curiosities, like a Independent winning York North in 1984. (York North was huge then, including current Vaughan, Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Markham-Unionville and parts of Oak Ridges-Markham). It's an interesting story.

The PC incumbent, John Gamble (1979-1984) was a controversial hard-right and anti-communist MP. He ran for PC leadership in 1983 and got a very small result. Tony Roman was the mayor of Markham and local influent people convinced him of running to get rid of the hard right MP, because the Liberal candidate was weak (those local people were PCers, independents and Liberals). He ran on on some wierd halfway between Liberals and PC and won. He retired after one term and returned to Markham mayorship.

John Gamble tried to run for Reform in 1993, but was expelled for its links with neo-nazi Heritage Front.

[MaxQue]

Old news but forgot to post: Tory MPs Greg Kerr (West Nova, BC) and Colin Mayes (Okanagan-Shuswap, BC) will retire next year.

Surprising for Greg Kerr, he is only elected since 2008, but I suppose he thought he would lose next time (Harper is very unpopular in the Atlantic), and his riding voted Liberal in 2006. He won 47-36 over the former Liberal MP last time.

Mayes was elected first in 2006. Riding is quite safe, last time it was one by another party than Reform/Conservtive was in 1988 (NDP). He won 55-36 last time against NDP, with Liberals 4th, behind Greens in 3rd.

[MaxQue]

McKay none too thrilled with Trudeau's abortion edict.

Rightfully so; Trudeau is a moron for saying what he did. I want to know his logic as to how it will help win over Tory-Liberal swing voters or help win back seats in Scarborough.

He has principles instead of saying whatever could get him elected.

[MaxQue]

McKay none too thrilled with Trudeau's abortion edict.

Rightfully so; Trudeau is a moron for saying what he did. I want to know his logic as to how it will help win over Tory-Liberal swing voters or help win back seats in Scarborough.

He has principles instead of saying whatever could get him elected.

The Liberal Party has always welcomed pluralism on social issues, so good for him if he wants to stick to his principles but trying to impose it on all the Liberal Party itself by banning people with social views different to his as standing as a candidate is absurd. He seems completely cavalier to the entire principle of Liberalism, and it's going to hurt his party. This won't affect your vote, but it will affect many others.

But that may allow him to gain other votes. I know people who will refuse to consider voting Liberal until they got rid of pro-life and anti-gay-marriage MPs.

[MaxQue]

McKay none too thrilled with Trudeau's abortion edict.

Rightfully so; Trudeau is a moron for saying what he did. I want to know his logic as to how it will help win over Tory-Liberal swing voters or help win back seats in Scarborough.

He has principles instead of saying whatever could get him elected.

The Liberal Party has always welcomed pluralism on social issues, so good for him if he wants to stick to his principles but trying to impose it on all the Liberal Party itself by banning people with social views different to his as standing as a candidate is absurd. He seems completely cavalier to the entire principle of Liberalism, and it's going to hurt his party. This won't affect your vote, but it will affect many others.

But that may allow him to gain other votes. I know people who will refuse to consider voting Liberal until they got rid of pro-life and anti-gay-marriage MPs.

His ruling does not get rid of sitting social conservatives, thankfully, so those people you know have some time to wait.

But most voters ignore those details.

[MaxQue]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

[MaxQue]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

[MaxQue]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

I don't know. He nearly won the Rothesay by-election, which is the richest riding in the province. I do think he picked the wrong Fredericton riding though. According to this: http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/05/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html he should be running in Fredericton South, not Fredericton West-Hanwell.

The south side of Fredericton is quite left leaning, the NDP won the area in the federal election.

Didn't think than Fredericton was so good for NDP. South was the 3rd most strong NDP in the province (I would even say 2nd, since Tracadie-Sheila was the leader seat). Through, I must say than, surprisingly, Fredericton West-Hanwell is quite good for NDP. I understand the symbolism, through. It includes part of the capital, suburbs, rural areas and a Native reservation.

[MaxQue]

Well, it confirms than much of my family will vote NDP next time. They insist than Bloc shouldn't be about independence, but about Quebec interests and I suspect they aren't alone. Thank you Bloquistes.

[MaxQue]

Beaulieu's leadership going even better than expected. He characterized the past 20 years as "waiting and defeatism", naturally Duceppe was furious. One riding association president quit already.

The FLQ reference terrifies me.

[MaxQue]

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

The rule always was than your are invoted if you got an MP when the election was called. It would mean Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau, Beaulieu and May.