Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Njall]

A strange poll on Alberta's provincial voting intentions:
http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

26% PC
23% NDP
21% Wildrose
20% Liberal
9% Alberta

Does the pollster have any credibility here? It doesn't seem realistic for the NDP to have a chance of winning... it should be an easy PC win, no?

It would be great news if this poll was in any way accurate. Not just because the centre/left can have a chance, but a four-way race would be a well-needed shake-up in Albertan politics.

It should be noted that the group behind this survey is advocating for the progressive parties in Alberta to jointly nominate candidates in order to take out the PCs.  

Regarding the numbers, the PCs seem to be polling much too low, especially given Angus-Reid's recent job approval numbers for Premier Prentice, and the general disorganization of the opposition.  The NDP numbers are actually fairly believable, since they're really the only opposition party that's acting competently as of late.  I'd expect the Liberals and WRP to both be a little lower (maybe around 15%) in reality.  And there's no way that the Alberta Party is at 9%.


EDIT: on the topic of Alberta, the government tabled the budget for this year today.  Notable amongst the changes is the abandonment of the flat income tax; starting in 2016, new higher tax brackets will come into existence for incomes between $100,000 and $250,000 per year, and for incomes over $250,000 per year.

[Njall]

EDIT: on the topic of Alberta, the government tabled the budget for this year today.  Notable amongst the changes is the abandonment of the flat income tax; starting in 2016, new higher tax brackets will come into existence for incomes between $100,000 and $250,000 per year, and for incomes over $250,000 per year.

One small quibble. I wouldn't really call Alberta's taxation truly flat in the first place. I count 18 tax credits on their provincial return

Haha, I recall a talking point much along those lines in the government's 2014 tax plan documents.

[Njall]

Why did she join the PCs again?

Because she's dumb and massively overestimated her popularity with a party she spent several years attacking?

Seriously though, how the hell do you engineer a mass floor-crossing and not negotiate guaranteed nominations?

She tried, but from what I gather, the PC caucus would have revolted if that was carried out.

On a related note, due to the events of this Saturday's nominations, 5 of the 11 WRP floor crossers won their nominations and will be running as PCs in the next election, while 3 were defeated in their nominations, and 3 didn't run for re-election. 

[Njall]

Interesting Alberta Provincial poll from Mainstreet Technologies.

How Albertans (polled) would vote in the next provincial election:

WRP: 33%
NDP: 26%
PC: 20%
ALP: 3%
ABP: 2%
Undecided: 17%

The NDP are still FAR ahead in Edmonton, but the PCs are narrowly ahead in Calgary, and the WRP is ahead in the rest of Alberta.

Interestingly, despite the NDP's sharp fall in voter support, Rachel Notley's personal approval numbers are still quite good.