Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

I knew Ducasse would lead it.

They're not running in this upcoming election are they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Poilievre will run in Rideau-Carleton, Baird in Nepean.

Strange, considering Baird's current district doesn't change at all. Nepean will be much more safe for him, though. Who will run in Ottawa West-Nepean? I suppose the Liberals could pick it up.

In other news, the 2 former NDP MHAs in Newfoundland that became independents due to concerns with leader Loraine Michael are now Liberals

[Hatman 🍁]

Watson is great on Twitter; he's always replied to me when I've made some funny comments.

He has a big gay following in the city, because the gay community knows something about him that most voters are probably unaware of (if you catch my drift).  My girlfriend likes to read the local queer newspaper, and there was a recent Q&A with the mayor about what kind of example closeted politicians set for gays. Kind of an awkward question.

But before anyone jumps on the Watson bandwagon, remember, he's still a vapid centrist, and a typical Liberal panderer. Council is stocked with his fanboys/girls.  I'm hoping there will be someone challenging him from the left in the upcoming election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess I'll just waste my vote and vote for whichever clown the NDP puts up here then. The Belieberals continue to be total crap.

But you musn't waste your vote! That will let the Tories win

And I really don't how someone sane (which is what you are) can endorse a law forbidding Elections Canada to do sensibilisation in schools and banning them from doing turnout campaigns. It's a deliberate choice to lower turnout.

Trying to reduce already increasingly low turnout sounds almost American.

It does reek of what the Republicans are trying to do in the US. Luckily it wont be as bad, but still.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pandering to the middle class does nothing to prevent further alienating voters like me. (Not that I can be any more alienated from the Liberals)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Poilievre's one of our MVPs.

Most valuable prick? The man is a tool, and the last press conference I saw him in (the rebuttal to Trudeau's Senate shakeup) he was just terrible at attacking Trudeau and defending the Tory position. This is when I actually agreed with the Conservatives on something.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario poll from Ipsos: 34/31/31 among all voters, 37/33/27 among LV. 60/40 wrong track, 32/31/28 preferred premier. Being Ipsos, they also include regional numbers. Seat guesstimate, anyone?

I wonder if Central Ontario = 705 and Northern Ontario = 807. If so, then their regional descriptors are very misleading.

Good to see the NDP ahead in SW Ontario. Outside of Windsor and maybe London, it's not exactly the most traditional NDP part of the province. The traditional NDP areas are downtown Toronto and Northern Ontario, but I suspect the NDP is struggling in DT Toronto from those numbers. If the Liberals slip to third province-wide, I expect Toronto voters to start swinging en masse to the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some 519 (SW Ontario) ridings that I think the NDP would pick up with those numbers:

Windsor West (duh)
London North Centre
Brant
Guelph
Kitchener Centre
Cambridge
Sarnia-Lambton

Distant possibilities (rural seats):
Perth-Middlesex (strong campaign in Stratford could swing it)
Huron-Bruce (previous target in 2011)
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (strong Green presence in the past, could switch to the NDP)

NDP is 3rd (43L/29C/26N) in 416 and 905 (48C/28L/20N).

Yes, I noticed that. But, if the Libs drop to 3rd province-wide, I expect a 3 way race in the 416. The 905 will always be a write off for the NDP, except for Hamilton, parts of Niagara, Bramalea-Gore-Malton and maybe Oshawa.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm hoping the Liberals will realize the huge threat of their downfall, and give the NDP huge concessions to stay in power.

[Hatman 🍁]

How come Windsor West isn't NDP-held?

Terrible candidate last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Zach Paikin is running against Chris Charlton in Hamilton-West-Ancaster-Dundas next year.

Are you sure Charlton is running in this riding? It doesn't say this in your link. Why would she run here when her current Hamilton Mountain riding has undergone only minor changes and is more NDP-leaning?

Beat me to it. That would be incredibly stupid if she runs there.

So, the Paikins are Liberal? Makes sense, I guess. I wish TVO would hire non partisan journalists...

[Hatman 🍁]

That's what it said earlier IIRC. Either way he loses.

Not necessarily.

Transposed results:

Cons: 42%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 25%

Suburban Hamilton tends to be a bellwether, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

That would almost be enough for a majority, if it were not for the Tories pulling ahead in BC. Difficult to get a majority when you're on the nose pretty much everywhere West of Ontario.

Meanwhile, we have the Tories in third in BC :S

[Hatman 🍁]

If that was the result in PEI, I think it would result in the Liberals winning every seat. The NDP could win one if the leader was popular (like 1996).

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories would be wise to dump Redford. I can't see them winning with her as leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

A bit misogynistic

[Hatman 🍁]

L+1 (in Ottawa West-Nepean)?

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. Who will be the Finance Minister now?

[Hatman 🍁]

Allison Redford is going to make an announcement at 8pm

[Hatman 🍁]

No questions. So reshuffle or more apologies IMO.

Sounds to me like a resignation.

[Hatman 🍁]

And she's resigning.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nenshi as leader would be um... interesting. I'd vote for him if I lived in his district.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, Hancock will be Premier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not to sound like BRTD here, but I went to the strip club (for lunch) that Senator Brazeau manages during the day, and he was indeed there.

[Hatman 🍁]

oakville is not in mississauga