Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Njall]

In other news, it looks like Alberta's license plates will no longer proclaim the province to be "Wild Rose Country"

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[Njall]

Here are the proposed new license plate designs.

[Njall]

Kent Hehr (Liberal MLA for Calgary-Buffalo) will seek the Federal Liberal nomination in Calgary Centre for 2015.

[Njall]

Daniel Blaikie will seek the NDP nomination in Elmwood-Transcona.

He already won it.

[Njall]

The rampant speculation is that she was keeping it warm for Prentice. I'd expect Prentice to win if he ran, but given that the Tories are plumbing the polling gutter right now they shouldn't take that for granted.

Actually, the last poll only had them down by 5 amongst all voters (31% WRP to 26% PC; about a quarter of the sample was undecided).  Note that I say "only down by 5" because they had been losing by margins of 25% or more in previous polls.  Don't get me wrong, the PCs certainly aren't in the best position, but if that poll is to be believed, then the WRP is also down from the last election, and there is a significant bloc of the voting population that Prentice could snag back to the PC fold if he performs well. 

If Prentice does end up running in Calgary-Elbow, I imagine that he'll do quite well, or at the very least, pull off a victory.  This riding wasn't very friendly to the WRP in 2012; I believe that their candidate ended up getting less than 30%, compared to Redford's 58%.  As it is located quite close to the centre of the city, many of its neighborhoods have a younger, more progressive population than the city as a whole.  Their local politics reflect this quite well, as Nenshi over-performed his city-wide average in almost all (if not all) of the city voting districts that are provincially located in Calgary-Elbow, and both of the Wards that represent parts of Calgary-Elbow are represented by two of the more progressive city councillors.  On the provincial level, a Liberal was elected here (albeit with moderately different riding boundaries) during a 2007 by-election after Klein stepped down, and the Liberals used to have a fairly substantial base here.  Of course, these voters might not think of Prentice as their ideal candidate, but they would certainly prefer him to a Wildrose member.

Prentice would also be helped here by "wealthy, inner-city" vote.  By that, I am referring to neightborhoods such as Upper Mount Royal, Rideau Park, Roxboro, and Elbow Park, all of which are older, inner-city neighborhoods characterized by large, expensive houses and some of the highest average household incomes in the city.  The PCs historically do well with this demographic, and in fact, some of Redford's best neighborhood-by-neighborhood results were in these places. 

Finally, while I know that money isn't everything in politics, it does certainly help, and the Calgary-Elbow PC Association is financially more than ready to run a strong campaign; at the end of last year they had more than $200,000 in the bank.  But anyways, long story short: Prentice's victory here wouldn't be guaranteed, but he would have a strong chance.  The biggest thing that could trip him up in my opinion would be vote-splitting; if enough voter here were to vote Liberal again instead of staying with the PCs, then the WRP could snatch victory.


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On another topic: Independent MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans (Calgary-Varsity) will request permission to re-join the PC caucus.  She left caucus in March during the first round of these expense scandals, and although she didn't specifically name Redford as the reason, it's believed that Redford was at least one of the reasons for her leaving.

[Njall]

Prentice has already ruled out running for Redford's seat.  Unless someone steps down once he wins the leadership, that means that his next chance to enter the legislature will come up once the federal writ is dropped and MLAs have to resign in order to campaign federally. 

So far, it looks like four seats in the legislature will be vacated at that point:

• Calgary-Buffalo: Liberal, Kent Hehr
• Calgary-Foothills: Independent (ex PC), Len Webber
• Calgary-McCall: Liberal, Darshan Kang
• Edmonton-McClung: PC, David Xiao

[Njall]

He can't stay outside the Leg for a year, someone has to resign. Paula Simons raised the possibility of another Getty moment on Twitter today.

Seems strange that he didn't run though. Njall is right. The best place for him to run is an old money riding that's too rich to vote Lib/NDP and too liberal to swing to Wildrose. Those would be the Tories' last stronghold. How many more of those ridings are there in AB?

It's hard to say, to be honest.  Calgary-Elbow probably had the highest concentration of voters like that.  I know that my riding of Calgary-Glenmore has some pockets as well, but they're certainly a smaller part of the riding's population.  Other ridings closer in to the centre of the city, such as Calgary-Klein or Calgary-Currie, are probably in the same boat.  I don't know if Edmonton has any comparable places, but there might be one or two options there as well.

[Njall]

Don't forget the last by-election in Calgary-Elbow... what do you reckon the Liberals' chances are of winning it?

Pretty low, I'd imagine.  The Liberals have lost a lot of strength province-wide since then.  Plus, at that time the Liberals were the default anti-PC vote.  They'll certainly improve on their 2012 result, but I don't think they have what it takes to win.

[Njall]

Considering Liberals are surging in Alberta, what do Duncan's chances in Strathcona look like? Will the left-wing vote gravitate to her like it did in 2011, or could she be unseated? (By Liberals or Conservatives)?

I'd say that her chances are still pretty good.  Some of her vote from last election will undoubtably drift over to the Liberals, but Edmonton Strathcona is still a very NDP-friendly area.  The NDP won the provincial riding of Edmonton-Strathcona (which sits in the centre of the federal riding) with more than 60% of the vote in 2012, and they also won numerous polls in the ridings of Edmonton-Gold Bar and Edmonton-Riverview, both of which are partially or wholly contained within the federal riding of Edmonton Strathcona.

[Njall]

Prentice has released his leadership campaign's donor list. As of today, he has raised 1.8 million dollars.

[Njall]

A new Alberta provincial poll from Leger shows some small change; PC and WRP up, LIB and NDP down.

Breakdowns (decided voters):

Province-wide: (change from last Leger poll)
Wildrose: 33% (+2)
PC: 29% (+3)
Liberal: 18% (-2)
NDP: 16% (-3)

Edmonton:
NDP: 27%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 22%
Liberal: 20%

Calgary:
Wildrose: 33%
PC: 31%
Liberal: 22%
NDP: 9%

Rural:
Wildrose: 41%
PC: 33%
Liberal: 11%
NDP: 9%


Note: All Rural values, and Liberal and NDP values in Calgary, are estimated from the graphic in the article; I can't find them stated in writing elsewhere.

[Njall]

Prentice was sworn in as Premier today.. He also unveiled his cabinet.  Notably, he appointed two ministers who aren't (yet) elected members of the Legislature: Stephen Mandel (former mayor of Edmonton) as Minister of Health, and Gordon Dirks (former Calgary Board of Education Trustee, and Minister of Social Services in Saskatchewan during the mid-1980s) as Minister of Education.

[Njall]

Those by-elections should be fun.

I've heard of premiers being picked who don't have seats, but cabinet ministers? And now Prentice is going to force at least one more Tory backbencher to give up their seat?

On the federal level, Chretien appointed Stephane Dion to cabinet in 1996, prior to Dion winning a by-election.  In fact, according to this Edmonton Journal blog, there were 169 people appointed to the federal cabinet from outside the HoC between 1867 and 2011. 

As for the by-elections, I think only one more backbencher will have to step down.  As it stands now, I imagine that Mandel will run in Edmonton-Whitemud and Dirks will run in Calgary-Elbow, so that just leaves Prentice to find a seat.  It looks like Prentice will probably get Neil Brown to step down so that he can run in Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill; I've heard that he wants to run in a riding that (at least partially) overlaps with his old federal seat, and those four ridings are Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill, Calgary-Klein (where the MLA just got sworn in to the new cabinet), Calgary-Mountain View (has a Liberal MLA), and Calgary-Varsity (MLA shows no sign of wanting to step down; also has a strong Liberal base).

[Njall]

BREAKING: Sources say that Wildrose MLAs Kerry Towle (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake) and Ian Donovan (Little Bow) will cross the floor to the PCs.

[Njall]

The WRP President is vowing to fight the rumoured merger movement.

Personally, I'm not too fond of this merger idea anyways.

[Njall]

time to jump ship njall

Haha, we'll have to see how this plays out first.

On a random sidenote, if the merger happens and/or if 11 or more WRP MLAs cross the floor, then once Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang step down for their federal runs, Rachel Notley will become the first NDP Leader of the Official Opposition since 1993.

[Njall]

Albertan journos I'm reading say Prentice has 7 so far, needs 9 for a Liberal OO.

He'd actually need 10 to either cross the floor or sit as independents; the WRP has 14 seats right now, and the ALP has 5.

Twitter is telling me that the following 7 WRP MLAs have voted to join the PCs:
Rob Anderson (Airdrie)
Gary Bikman (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Jason Hale (Strathmore-Brooks)
Blake Pedersen (Medicine Hat)
Danielle Smith (Highwood)
Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
Jeff Wilson (Calgary-Shaw)


If true, this means that the Wildrose caucus will be left with 7 members, and the PC caucus will grow to 70.

[Njall]

Smith and Anderson will join the Cabinet.

That better turn out to be wrong.  Not so much about Smith, but I can't stand Anderson, and I really don't like the idea of rewarding a serial opportunist who left the party when things looked bleak and would probably beg on his hands and knees to be let back in now.

[Njall]

PC betrayed its voters by allowing Wildrose to access any inch of power. If people wanted Danielle Smith in the Canibet, they would have voted for her.

Keep in mind that no firm decisions have been made yet.  My MLA has been reaching out to our board of directors for input to take into the PC caucus meeting tomorrow morning.

[Njall]

There are now reports that 9 MLAs will cross the floor.  Rod Fox (Lacombe-Ponoka), Bruce McAllister (Chestermere-Rocky View), and Bruce Rowe (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills) have been mentioned as crossing in addition to the six identified earlier.  I'm also hearing that WRP MLA Heather Forsyth (Calgary-Fish Creek) will resign effective Jan. 1 for health reasons.

[Njall]

Not exactly the healthiest thing for a province with an already unhealthy attachment to one party.

If I were a PC, I wouldn't trust their kind as far as I could throw them. Danielle Smith, the Nick Clegg of the Canadian right?

http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/recent-quotes-from-alberta-s-danielle-smith-1.1686899

It would appear that many of us PCs would share your opinion.  Unfortunately, I wasn't able to be on the PC board of directors conference call on Tuesday (as I had two exams that day), but a friend of mine who was characterized it as a 'gongshow.'  Numerous MLAs and members of the party's board of directors are wary of how this whole series of events will turn out in the long run. 

So has any compelling reason emerged for this merger? I was looking forward to the next election

Smith's given rationale has been that, essentially, the socons in her party eventually drove her out

The basic idea of the Alberta PC party is to use oil revenues to fund a welfare state comparable to other provinces with a much lower rate of taxation. It's hard to run to the right of this, because most conservative voters' - as opposed to conservative activists' - dislike of services is just grounded in their dislike of having to pay for the taxes that pay for them. It may also be on the MLA's mind that the recent drop in oil prices will make this even harder.

That's pretty true, more or less.  That's not to say I completely agree with that orientation as an active PC member, but it is hard to find fault with that analysis.

[Njall]

My year end gift to myself: A decade's worth of Nova Scotia polls in graph form.

Nicely done.  It's interesting (at least from my view, with little knowledge of what caused this) to see the levels of party support become markedly divergent over the decade.


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In Alberta political news, a poll from Mainstreet Technologies has been released showing the PCs at 44%, the WRP at 20%, the NDP at 18%, the Liberals at 14%, and the Alberta Party at 4% with decided voters.  20% of voters are undecided.  The poll also shows Prentice with a 63/26 approval rating.

[Njall]

Given how uniform their distribution is, Wildrose could go seatless with those numbers.

That would certainly be possible.  Barnes might be able to hang on in Cypress-Medicine Hat (he won by 18 points in 2012), but that could very well be it.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the NDP next time around.  At 18%, they would be sitting at almost double their vote share from the last election - they'd almost certainly get official opposition in that case, and would probably pick up 3 or 4 seats in Edmonton (as well as having an outside shot at Lethbridge-West).

[Njall]

Rumblings of an early election in Alberta.

[Njall]

Spring election inbound in Alberta.

I'm still not 100% convinced  of this; it's possible, but the media's been speculating about this for months