Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159508 times)
Njall
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« Reply #250 on: February 27, 2014, 07:43:56 PM »

Darshan Kang (MLA for Calgary-McCall) will run for the federal Liberal nomination in Calgary Skyview for 2015
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #251 on: March 04, 2014, 05:36:19 PM »



Wildrose is out in front again.
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Smid
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« Reply #252 on: March 04, 2014, 05:56:15 PM »

More important that Wildrose leading provincially is Wildrose leading in all geographic areas.

What I find surprising is PC third in Edmonton!? What's the sample size?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #253 on: March 04, 2014, 06:09:01 PM »

Under 40, but looking good for a poll not even halfway through this term. I'd love nothing more than to see them obliterated.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #254 on: March 04, 2014, 06:21:51 PM »

Jobs Grant has now been secured. On another note, I find it pathetic that the Laurentians who crapped all over Preston Manning when he was in politics are now selectively quoting him against Poilievre.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #255 on: March 04, 2014, 07:48:18 PM »

Jobs Grant has now been secured. On another note, I find it pathetic that the Laurentians who crapped all over Preston Manning when he was in politics are now selectively quoting him against Poilievre.

Why? Like everybody, sometimes he is wrong, sometimes, he is right. And he is right about the lack of transparency and the evilness of the voter suppression strategy.

But, true, like ecologists, Manning is anti-patriotic, now?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #256 on: March 04, 2014, 07:53:34 PM »

When have I ever said Manning is disloyal for expressing his views?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #257 on: March 04, 2014, 08:11:59 PM »

When have I ever said Manning is disloyal for expressing his views?

No, but I'm quite sure than some on your side think it.
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Njall
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« Reply #258 on: March 05, 2014, 11:53:18 AM »

More important that Wildrose leading provincially is Wildrose leading in all geographic areas.

What I find surprising is PC third in Edmonton!? What's the sample size?

Sample size of the whole poll was 1000, with 806 decided voters.  The Edmonton sample size was 266 (compared to 275 in Calgary and 264 in the rest of Alberta).

http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/AB%20Provincial%20Poll%20-%20February%2028%202014.pdf

In terms of all 1000 people polled, the results were as follows:

Wildrose: 28%
PC: 17%
NDP: 11%
Liberal: 10%
Alberta Party: 2%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 24%
Don't know/Wouldn't vote: 8%

As an active PCer, I'm obviously viewing this with a strong bias.  However, when I saw this, I was reminded of a poll from 2010 that showed 42% Wildrose to 27% PC.  We've pulled ourselves back from being this low in the polls before, and in the same timeframe.  It will certainly be tough, but considering that this poll was conducted after the media has been hounding the government over expenses related to government plane usage for the better part of two months, things could be a lot worse.

Something else of note: assuming that this poll is correct, the Wildrose has gained very little support from the PCs since the election.  The majority of PC losses in the polls seem to be related to gains by the Liberals and New Democrats.  The WRP, according to this, has only gained about 4 points, compared to a combined 11 points for the NDP and Liberals.
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Njall
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« Reply #259 on: March 07, 2014, 12:18:36 AM »


It looks like Environics disagrees.

PC: 36
WRP: 33
ALP: 18
NDP: 12
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #260 on: March 07, 2014, 07:09:12 PM »

Toews gets his judgeship.

Unfortunately, Harper and Poilievre will wave Chong's bill through.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #261 on: March 08, 2014, 10:30:54 AM »


That would make for some interesting results.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #262 on: March 08, 2014, 12:04:57 PM »

Speaking of Alberta... Redford's starting to be on borrowed time. That outfit is just as trigger-happy as the PQ. Ironic considering expense abuse is probably their mildest form of corruption.
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Njall
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« Reply #263 on: March 08, 2014, 04:54:09 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2014, 04:57:16 PM by Mideast Assemblyman Njall »


Definitely.  Judging by the regional samples, I could see the PCs holding on to their majority, but if they were to do so then it would be much closer than in 2012.  They seem to be doing a decent job of holding their ground in Calgary, Edmonton, and the rural north.  However, it looks like the WRP would pick up a fair amount of the remaining rural PC seats in southern and central Alberta.  Seats in the province's smaller cities could be interesting to watch as well.  The PC's hold most of the seats where small cities make up at least part of the riding population, but if enough PC voters from the last election were to move over to other parties, then these would be vulnerable.  Notably, there's a decent chance of Lethbridge-West going NDP, and an outside chance of Red Deer-North going Liberal, depending on how the voters ultimately vote.



Don Braid is certainly loving this; it's giving him lots of catchy headlines for him column.  But the PO does need to get its act together. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #264 on: March 08, 2014, 05:17:31 PM »

I can only imagine the reaction if Toews were appointed to the Supreme Court.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #265 on: March 09, 2014, 01:38:07 PM »

Corporate Research Associates did their quarterly poll of Atlantic Canada. Change from last quarter's poll are in brackets.

Newfoundland
Liberal: 53% (+1)
Progressive Conservative: 33% (+4)
NDP 13% (-6)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 43% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 31% (+6)
NDP 21% (-3)
Green 4% (-)
People's Alliance 1 (-)

PEI
Liberal: 53% (+4)
NDP 22% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 17% (-)
Green 7% (-)

They usually release one province each day, so I expect the Nova Scotia results will be out Monday. Some comments:

1) The Newfoundland Tories just got a leader, so I doubt their uptick in support will last.
2) The swing to the NB Tories is more likely to stick, though they still have a lot of ground to make up if they want to win in October.
3) The NB NDP have declined some, but they should still establish a beachhead in the next election (maybe 4-5 seats)
4) The PEI NDP in 2nd last quarter was not a fluke! I have no idea how that support will translate into seats though.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #266 on: March 09, 2014, 03:07:42 PM »

If that was the result in PEI, I think it would result in the Liberals winning every seat. The NDP could win one if the leader was popular (like 1996).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #267 on: March 10, 2014, 01:11:31 AM »

If that was the result in PEI, I think it would result in the Liberals winning every seat. The NDP could win one if the leader was popular (like 1996).

Well, they should focus only on their leader seat for now, to try to get someone in the Assembly.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #268 on: March 10, 2014, 04:41:31 PM »

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 60% (+2)
Progressive Conservative: 20% (+1)
NDP: 18% (-1)
Green: 1% (-2)

Still in the honeymoon period I guess.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #269 on: March 10, 2014, 06:06:09 PM »

Laurie Hawn is retiring next year.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #270 on: March 13, 2014, 03:39:31 PM »

In case anyone doubted "open" LPC nominations are a joke.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #271 on: March 14, 2014, 06:06:06 PM »

Alberta PC executive meets tomorrow, no one really knows what they'll do next. My guess is nothing, for now.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #272 on: March 14, 2014, 06:15:03 PM »

The Tories would be wise to dump Redford. I can't see them winning with her as leader.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #273 on: March 14, 2014, 06:18:23 PM »

The Tories would be wise to dump Redford. I can't see them winning with her as leader.

I hope she stays. A Wildrose earthquake would be the sweetest provincial victory of all for me.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #274 on: March 14, 2014, 08:21:08 PM »

Who'd ever think treating your caucus like crap could end badly?
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