Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories may pick up some Quebec City seats they lost in 2011, and might win a couple unexpected seats due to a lot of 4-way vote splits in rural Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ick. By far Baird was/is the best Conservative MP in the region. I understand Poilievre is the next highest ranked Tory in the area, but he also makes my skin crawl. Only worse MP in the region is Gallant, but I'd imagine Hash might have something to say about Galipeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently it's just the first night of these, but it's bad news.

Here's a list: http://todaysndp.ca/Convention2015/DelegateSelectionMeetings

I'm going to see if I can keep track of these for mapping purposes.

So far:
Ashton wins Emerson and Assiniboia
Oswald wins Kirkfield Park

[Hatman 🍁]

She won't be running in Mississauga.

[Hatman 🍁]

She's not running in Mississauga because the Libs have nominated all of their candidates there

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe she actually lives in Oakville now (with her (ex?) fiance Dmitri Soudas), which is why she wanted to run there. Oakville-North Burlington has a Liberal candidate though, so she will likely run next door in Milton.

[Hatman 🍁]

She's not going to be left with much choice...

Speaking of seat musical chairs, what's happening to Leon Benoit? It appears he was the only incumbent left standing (in Alberta) after the music stopped. AFAIK he hasn't publicly indicating he isn't running again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great article by David Akin: http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/david-akin-in-defence-of-sun-news/

Sad to see him without a job. Really surprised to see that Jack Layton approached him to be a candidate!

[Hatman 🍁]

Suburban Toronto is generally a horrible place.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory MPP says he doesn't believe in evolution: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/25/tory-mpp-rick-nicholls-says-he-doesnt-believe-in-evolution.html

lolwut

I guess SW Ontario really is the "deep south" of Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

"fundamentalist multiculturalist".

lolololololol

[Hatman 🍁]

"fundamentalist multiculturalist".

lolololololol

Why is that funny? Seems like an adequate description.

The phrase just sounds particularly ridiculous. Perhaps because I don't live in Quebec, but multiculturalism is viewed by progressives in Canada as a huge part of our culture (if you can call it that) and is something that we take great pride in.

"fundamentalist multiculturalist".

lolololololol

Why is that funny? Seems like an adequate description.

I understand than white supremacy is the default position in Denmark (which have been often called in Quebec news, the most racist country in Western Europe), but Canada is multicultural. Made of French (1600), English (1700), Scottish (1700), Irish (1850), German (1900), Polish (1925), Italian, Black (1950) and now Arabs cultures.

Not to mention the Aboriginals who were here first, the Ukriainians and other Eastern Europeans in the early 1900s, Jews, Chinese (both to work on the railroads and after the head tax was repealed), South Asians, Vietnamese (after the war), Americans (e.g draft dodgers), etc, etc, etc. Arabs have also been in Canada for decades, at least in places like Ottawa and Halifax where they've contributed heavily to the local cuisines (think Halifax Donair or in Ottawa, you can't throw a rock without hitting a Shawarma restaurant) 

[Hatman 🍁]

That judge should be fired. Clearly contradicts the charter. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Quarterly Atlantic Canada polls are out.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 58% (-6)
PC:  20% (+2)
NDP: 18% (+4)

New Brunswick
Lib: 54% (+2)
PC:  27% (+4)
NDP: 9% (-5)
Green: 9% (-1)

Newfoundland
Lib: 56% (-4)
PC:  31% (+2)
NDP: 13% (+3)

PEI
Lib: 58% (+8)
PC:  26% (+3)
NDP: 12% (-3)
Green: 4% (-7)

Of note:
1) The Liberal honeymoon in NS might finally be starting to ahead. However, they are still 13 points over what they got in the last election.

2) The NB NDP's horriawful result.

Do you think there will be high level casualties in the federal election? (i.e. MacKay, Shea, other Cabinet Ministers losing their seats losing their seats)

Those are provincial polls, not federal polls.

Anyways, Shea might lose her seat, but Mackay might be safe. It'll be the last Tory seat to go down in Nova Scotia.

The NDP should be really worried, they're likely to lose even Jack Harris and Peter Stoffer at this point (let alone Megan Leslie)

[Hatman 🍁]

It makes perfect sense that MacKay would lead in a public opinion poll. He has the biggest name recognition. No one has heard of James Moore of Jason Kenney (outside of the Ottawa bubble of course). Peter MacKay on the other hand is a household name.

Of course leading with Conservative voters and leading with Conservative members are two different things.

[Hatman 🍁]

It makes perfect sense that MacKay would lead in a public opinion poll. He has the biggest name recognition. No one has heard of James Moore of Jason Kenney (outside of the Ottawa bubble of course). Peter MacKay on the other hand is a household name.

Of course leading with Conservative voters and leading with Conservative members are two different things.

1.Jason Kenney has been a cabinet minister for as long as Peter MacKay and is, obviously, extremely well known in the so-called 'ethnic communities.'  I don't really know why Peter MacKay would be better known than Jason Kenney, though I agree he likely is.

So what? It's about that je ne sais quoi that MacKay has and Kenney doesn't. Maybe Kenney is well known in ethnic communities, but that's not enough to over come MacKay being a household name. Let's face it, Kenney is just another boring middle aged Albertan Tory. MacKay is a celebrity.

Of course Tories love boring middle aged white guys, so that shouldn't stop Kenney from winning a Conservative nomination. However it does stop him from being a well known figure.

[Hatman 🍁]

You guys have short memories. When he was with Belinda, they were Ottawa's celebrity couple. And, how many times was he awarded sexiest MP?

There's more to these things than substance or intellectualism.  There's a reason Justin Trudeau is Liberal leader. Of course, when I said Justin would become leader four years ago, people would laugh in my face. Unlike Trudeau though, I don't think MacKay would actually win a leadership race. I'm just suggesting why he'd be leading in a poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

Threshold is 25% of the quota?

Max, you should've probably just started a new thread on the other board for this

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think redistricting happens enough to warrant one massive thread for all provinces.

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP-La Presse Quebec poll:

PLQ 29%
CAQ 27%
PQ 26%
QS 16%

I suspect it would cause a minority government.

2007 all over again, except with the added fun of a strong QS.

[Hatman 🍁]

hahaha wut?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, read their rather suspect methodology.

[Hatman 🍁]

Danielle Smith got thumped in her PC nomination bid. Dramatic if unsurprising end to this season of Albertan House of Cards.

Wow. Makes sense though, Tories in her riding were probably pissed of with her winning the seat in the first place.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why did she join the PCs again?

[Hatman 🍁]

How does a creationist get elected in Vancouver Island of all places?