Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

Those things would prevent MacKay from winning the Tory leadership, but would be irrelevant in a national campaign.

To be blunt, the Tories aren't going to beat Trudeau with an ugly fat guy as leader (which describes most of the so called "front runners")

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprisingly, some Liberals supported it. Wouldn't believe it by just reading the partisans on Twitter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario is allowing municipalities to bring in IVR if they so choose. I very much doubt that will happen anywhere, unfortunately.

There have been many referendums for more democratic systems. They are usually purposefully burdened with misinformation campaigns and impossible to reach thresholds. BC's STV referendum saw STV win 57%, but needed 60% to pass. Ridiculousness!

After the failure of the MMP referendum in Ontario in 2007, electoral reform sort of died down. Problem is, most people don't understand the current system, let alone a more complicated voting system. And too many of those in power know that electoral reform will prevent themselves from ever achieving the same level of power.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think, if anything, the Liberals support AV. Makes sense, as they would stand the most benefit from it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Conservatives would get screwed, but outside of Quebec it would hurt the NDP as well. We saw that in the last federal election just as many Liberal voters swung Tory as they did to the NDP.

AV would strictly benefit the Liberals, and would force to the Tories to moderate themselves in order to be competitive.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the Citizen is still referring to the riding by its old name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe because the Tories have no chance at any Halifax seats?

[Hatman 🍁]

Except for rare occasions, the establishment candidate always wins these things. Nomination races are usually shams. I admit that the Tories are probably the most democratic with their nominations.

[Hatman 🍁]

Guess that increase in Liberal support is everywhere outside of Saint John East

[Hatman 🍁]

Question for Hatman and RogueBeaver or anyone else who wishes to comment

How many of the current crop of NDP Members of Parliament from Quebec will survive the next election in your estimation?

Roughly 30 are safe due to their only relevant opposition (the Bloc Quebecois) being in even worse shape than they are. These are mostly in rural Quebec and parts of Montreal.

10ish are lost causes. These are mostly in Montreal and will be picked up by the Liberals.

The remaining ridings will depend on vote splits. The Liberals will win a few ridings in rural Quebec, the Tories might be able to snag a seat or two around Quebec City, but the NDP should hold a few of these.

I expect the Bloc Quebecois & Forces et Democratie to not win any seats.

They should hold most of their seats in the 450 area code (Montreal suburbs) as well. Outside of Quebec, the NDP is looking at mid 2000s level support, and may only win 20 or so seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

What the heck

[Hatman 🍁]

time to jump ship njall

[Hatman 🍁]

If there's one province that doesn't need to "unite the right" it's Alberta. This is most disappointing. Just when Alberta politics were about to get interesting.

Danielle Smith was a good leader for the party, I doubt they can find someone of similar qualities.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess it's impossible to keep conservatives apart for very long. I imagine UKIP wont last very long in Britain, either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great piece by Dave Cournoyer explaining what happened: http://daveberta.ca/2014/12/wildrose-party-danielle-smith-jim-prentice-floor-crossing/

[Hatman 🍁]

The PCs won a lot of support last election from moderates who normally vote Liberal/NDP in an effort to stop Wild Rose. This flies in the face of those people. One could say they get what they deserve, as someone on the centre-left should never settle for a party on the right (I'm looking at you, John Tory voters).

[Hatman 🍁]

Lorraine Michael has stepped down as NDP leader in Newfoundland. Hopefully they find someone good to replace her to save the party. Best person would be Jack Harris, but if he runs, you can kiss his federal seat goodbye for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lorraine Michael has stepped down as NDP leader in Newfoundland. Hopefully they find someone good to replace her to save the party. Best person would be Jack Harris, but if he runs, you can kiss his federal seat goodbye for the NDP.

Would you prefer he go back to provincial politics or stick with the feds?

Well, he's the best person to lead the party there. I don't really care either way, since he's unlikely to lead the party to government at the moment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool; I hadn't realized they selected Moen as their leader. Good choice.

[Hatman 🍁]

Proof that there will be no Spring federal election?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Alberta, for the lulz, I hope one of two people become leader of the WRP:

- Rob Anders or
- Derek Fildebrandt (Former classmate of mine; He had quite the reputation on campus for being an arch conservative)

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada is about to have its 2nd gay Premier. Wade McLaughlin was the only candidate to run for leader of the PEI Liberals, so he will become Premier in February.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada is about to have its 2nd gay Premier. Wade McLaughlin was the only candidate to run for leader of the Liberals, so he will become Premier in February.

In which province?

Whoops. PEI.

[Hatman 🍁]

ROFLMAO: Selinger might not even make the second ballot in March. Either way he's an underdog to keep his leadership. Pallister's election will be as easy as Prentice's. I can't think of a precedent for an incumbent premier being voted out at convention. Closest would be Smallwood, but he was already out.

Common in Australia, but they're more quick with the knives, and they don't poll the party members.

[Hatman 🍁]

Common in Australia, but they're more quick with the knives, and they don't poll the party members.

Depends which party.  I know for a fact that Labor polls the party members.

Those Labor spills didn't happen at a leadership convention.