Would Dubya Win Today?

[Bureaucat]

I've read somewhere that if the 2000 and 2004 elections were rerun today with Bush winning the same percentages in ethnic groups  he did then, but facing the current demographics with fewer white voters, he never would have been elected.  Have any of you ever examined that claim?

[DC Al Fine]

I've read somewhere that if the 2000 and 2004 elections were rerun today with Bush winning the same percentages in ethnic groups  he did then, but facing the current demographics with fewer white voters, he never would have been elected.  Have any of you ever examined that claim?

2000 is definitely true. Bush won Florida by like 400 votes. I'm pretty sure nough Hispanics have moved there to swing the election. I'm not sure about 2004.

[JRP1994]

Yes, using the "Presidential Math" calculator that Nate Silver created on the New York Times website:

2000 (Since we're removing Nader from the EQ, I assign 2/3 of Nader's votes to Gore and 1/3 to Bush)

Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 347 EVs, 52.4%
George Bush/Dick Cheney: 191 EVs, 45.8%


2004

John Kerry/John Edwards: 270 EVs, 48.3%
George Bush/Dick Cheney: 268 EVs, 49.9%

^ Sweet sweet irony, no?

[ElectionsGuy]

By my calculations, using his percentages among racial demographic groups and the 2012 electorate, he would've got 49.7% (2004) instead of 50.7%, and 45.0% (2000) instead of 47.9%. The main reason the difference is closer in 2004 is because Dubya did much better with Hispanics and Asians the second time around. So basically, he wouldn't of been elected in the first place because of 2000, but the 2004 result would probably be a win.

[opebo]

Yes, using the "Presidential Math" calculator that Nate Silver created on the New York Times website:

That calculator only goes back to 2012...

[JRP1994]

Yes, using the "Presidential Math" calculator that Nate Silver created on the New York Times website:

That calculator only goes back to 2012...

Right, the title is "Would Dubya Win Today"? I used the percentages from the Roper Center website.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not with Dick Cheney but someone with some more moderate views, he can indeed win today without the ethics cloud of Alberto Gonzalez.

[Bureaucat]

JRP

If you leave Nader in both races do you have any idea on how the maps would change from what actually happened in 2000 and 2004?