Your maps look pretty good overall, although I might flip North Carolina and maybe Missouri to the Democrats and New Mexico to the Republicans.
In both of those scenarios, NM and NC are both >40%, so don't get me wrong, they're both toss-ups and can go either way at that point. Missouri however is probably more right-wing than many people think and has trended much to the right recently, so I think republicans would win it in either scenario. I mean, even Obama in 2008 lost it when he won by 7 points and campaigned hard in the state.
You actually have a pretty good point regarding Missouri. It seems that Missouri is a lean/likely Republican state, while North Carolina and New Mexico are swing states that lean slightly Republican and slightly Democratic respectively.
