States that won't be battlegrounds in the next 20 years

[old timey villain]

Interesting thoughts on Maine, thanks for sharing.

So if the Dems take the Southwestern and/or Southeastern states, presumably the national Republican Party would be forced to move towards the center, at least in some ways, in order to compete in the Midwest (and/or win over swing voters in the SW and SE). If, in the future, the GOP's electoral strength stems from the Midwest and Interior West, where would the GOP target next?

I guess they would try to solidify the rust belt. This would be enough now. But will it be after the 2040 reapportionment?

I would be really sad if Minnesota became a GOP state. It has such a long history of progressive politics.

[windjammer]

West Virginia isn't going to be a safe GOP state unless they manage to turn it into a RTW state.

Which, unfortunately, they will certainly do.

This. When democrats will lose their majority in the WV senate, it will be over...

[Gass3268]

I don't see the Midwest being safe Republican for a long time, if ever. Just look at the places that are gaining population in these states. Almost all of thoes areas are trending Dem or already really Dem. The only state in the region I could see getting more competative is Michigan. I see the Midwest remainging one of the key sing areas.

[henster]

Big question what happens to the South once the Republicans ditch social conservatism and evangelicals how do they vote without the GOP pushing wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage.

[TNF]

West Virginia isn't going to be a safe GOP state unless they manage to turn it into a RTW state.

Which, unfortunately, they will certainly do.

This. When democrats will lose their majority in the WV senate, it will be over...

Oh, I don't disagree. Same goes for Kentucky, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which I expect to be turned into third world hellholes by the GOP in the next few decades.

[Non Swing Voter]

Big question what happens to the South once the Republicans ditch social conservatism and evangelicals how do they vote without the GOP pushing wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage.

If the Republicans ditched social conservatism, they would probably still vote Republican for other issues such as health care, gun rights, environmentalism. 

somehow the GOP has convinced them that the oil companies are aligned with their interests because their gas is 2c a gallon cheaper.  plus, it seems like states with the highest concentrations of blacks and white evangelicals have the most polarized racial politics... so there's still that.     

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I can't see how Texas becomes a "tipping point" state in the next 20 years.

This map actually looks pretty plausible to me as a future close election.

Hmm, that is rather interesting! Although I think Texas will stay Republican.
But why are people exclaiming that Michigan and Oregon will turn Republican?

[Orser67]

I think the general theory is that if the Democrats start doing better in the Southwest and/or Southeast, the Republicans will have to do better in the Midwest, which would presumably mean winning more white votes (which I guess would bring Oregon into the GOP column as well).

[Non Swing Voter]

Why would any of those states go Republican without major policy changes.  Public opinion in Oregon already favors gay marriage, it won't even be an issue in 20 years there when Republicans will presumably still be making homophobic and absurd statements every election.

[Orser67]

It's possible that a) the country continues moving to the left on social issues, b)the Republican Party continues to be a socially conservative party, and c)those positions alienate voters to the point that the GOP can't win the Midwest. I do think that this will be a major issue for the GOP. But we can't just assume the GOP won't be able to adapt, or take for granted that the country will keep moving to the left.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia isn't going to be a safe GOP state unless they manage to turn it into a RTW state.

All States will be Duty-to-Starve states if the GOP gets its way.

[DS0816]

I can't see how Texas becomes a "tipping point" state in the next 20 years.

This map actually looks pretty plausible to me as a future close election.

FANTASY MATERIAL.

The overwhelming majority of Rust Belt states are getting carried nowadays by the Democrats while the overwhelming majority of the Old Confederacy states are getting carried by the Republicans. There is good reason: Different backgrounds coupled with history.

There has been a lot of this fantasy-type material getting posted. It makes me wonder, however briefly, just what some of the people doing that have been smoking and/or drinking.

The Rust Belt will identify Republican when the Old Confederacy identifies Democratic. Just like the way it used to be. (Of course, all along, I've been referring this to the base states of both of today's major political parties.)