Classifying the States
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JRP1994
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« on: December 25, 2013, 07:39:09 PM »
« edited: December 25, 2013, 07:44:40 PM by JRP1994 »
Here's my classification of the states, assuming an election between a Generic Democrat and a Generic  Thoughts?

Solid Democrat

Washington DC
Hawaii
Vermont
New York
Maryland
California
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Delaware
Illinois
Maine's First Congressional District
Connecticut
New Jersey
Maine Statewide

Likely Democrat

Washington
Oregon
Michigan
New Mexico

Lean Democrat

Minnesota
Nevada
Wisconsin
Maine's Second Congressional District
Pennsylvania

True Battleground

Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio

Lean Republican

Florida

Likely Republican

North Carolina
Nebraska's Second Congressional District

Solid Republican

Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Montana
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska's First Congressional District
Texas
Alaska
Kansas
West Virginia
South Carolina
Nebraska Statewide
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Idaho
Oklahoma
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Nebraska's Third Congressional District
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Flake
JacobTiver
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« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2013, 07:43:31 PM »
Quote from: JRP1994 on December 25, 2013, 07:39:09 PM
Solid Democrat

Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Montana
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska's First Congressional District
Texas
Alaska
Kansas
West Virginia
South Carolina
Nebraska Statewide
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Idaho
Oklahoma
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Nebraska's Third Congressional District

Ah yes, the solid Democratic state of Wyoming.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2013, 07:44:23 PM »
Quote from: Flo on December 25, 2013, 07:43:31 PM
Quote from: JRP1994 on December 25, 2013, 07:39:09 PM
Solid Democrat

Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Montana
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska's First Congressional District
Texas
Alaska
Kansas
West Virginia
South Carolina
Nebraska Statewide
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Idaho
Oklahoma
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Nebraska's Third Congressional District

Ah yes, the solid Democratic state of Wyoming.

LOL! Good catch. I'll fix that. xD
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Flake
JacobTiver
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« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2013, 07:46:42 PM »
Quote from: JRP1994 on December 25, 2013, 07:44:23 PM
Quote from: Flo on December 25, 2013, 07:43:31 PM
Quote from: JRP1994 on December 25, 2013, 07:39:09 PM
Solid Democrat

Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Montana
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska's First Congressional District
Texas
Alaska
Kansas
West Virginia
South Carolina
Nebraska Statewide
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Idaho
Oklahoma
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Nebraska's Third Congressional District

Ah yes, the solid Democratic state of Wyoming.

LOL! Good catch. I'll fix that. xD

In all seriousness, I would move New Hampshire and Iowa to lean Democratic and New Jersey to likely Democratic.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2013, 08:03:02 PM »
« Edited: December 25, 2013, 08:47:06 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Safe R (15+ points more republican than national vote)

Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska (Statewide)
NE-3
NE-1
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming

Likely R (9-15 points more republican than national vote)

Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Missouri
NE-2

Lean R (3-9 points more republican than national vote)

North Carolina

Battlegrounds (Within 3 points of national vote either way)

Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Iowa
Nevada
Wisconsin

Lean D (3-9 points more democratic than national vote)

Minnesota
Michigan
New Mexico
ME-2

Likely D (9-15 points more democratic than national vote)

Oregon
Washington
Maine (Statewide)
Illinois
New Jersey
Connecticut
Delaware

Safe D (15+ points more democratic than national vote)

ME-1
California
Massachusetts
Maryland
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Hawaii
DC

Map:

>80% = Safe
>60% = Likely
>40% = Lean
Grey = Battleground
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2013, 01:26:34 PM »
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2013, 05:02:00 AM »
If you classify the states according to their average margins of victory in the past four presidential elections, this is how you would classify them:

Solid Republican (10+)
Utah (R+40.50)
Wyoming (R+38.23)
Idaho (R+33.71)
Oklahoma (R+29.47)
Nebraska (R+24.73)
Alaska (R+23.01)
Alabama (R+21.08)
North Dakota (R+20.81)
Kansas (R+20.71)
Kentucky (R+18.48)
Texas (R+17.94)
South Dakota (R+17.66)
Montana (R+15.41)
Mississippi (R+15.32)
West Virginia (R+14.76)
Arkansas (R+14.69)
Louisiana (R+14.50)
Tennessee (R+13.40)
South Carolina (R+13.14)
Indiana (R+11.38)
Georgia (R+10.33)

Likely Republican (5-10)
Arizona (R+8.58)
North Carolina (R+6.75)
Missouri (R+5.01)

Leans Republican (0-5)
Virginia (R+1.51)
Florida (R+0.34)

Leans Democratic (0-5)
Colorado (D+0.32)
Ohio (D+0.49)
Nevada (D+3.26)
Iowa (D+3.75)
New Hampshire (D+3.82)

Likely Democratic (5-10)
Wisconsin (D+5.37)
Pennsylvania (D+5.60)
Minnesota (D+5.96)
New Mexico (D+6.14)
Oregon (D+8.26)
Michigan (D+8.62)

Solid Democratic (10+)
Washington (D+11.17)
Maine (D+11.68)
New Jersey (D+13.93)
Delaware (D+16.07)
Illinois (D+16.09)
Connecticut (D+16.89)
California (D+17.23)
Maryland (D+20.22)
New York (D+24.57)
Massachusetts (D+25.35)
Vermont (D+25.67)
Rhode Island (D+26.27)
Hawaii (D+28.76)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2013, 05:23:15 AM »
Quote from: Hillary/Rendell 2016 on December 28, 2013, 05:02:00 AM
If you classify the states according to their average margins of victory in the past four presidential elections, this is how you would classify them:

Solid Republican (10+)
Utah (R+40.50)
Wyoming (R+38.23)
Idaho (R+33.71)
Oklahoma (R+29.47)
Nebraska (R+24.73)
Alaska (R+23.01)
Alabama (R+21.08)
North Dakota (R+20.81)
Kansas (R+20.71)
Kentucky (R+18.48)
Texas (R+17.94)
South Dakota (R+17.66)
Montana (R+15.41)
Mississippi (R+15.32)
West Virginia (R+14.76)
Arkansas (R+14.69)
Louisiana (R+14.50)
Tennessee (R+13.40)
South Carolina (R+13.14)
Indiana (R+11.38)
Georgia (R+10.33)

Likely Republican (5-10)
Arizona (R+8.58)
North Carolina (R+6.75)
Missouri (R+5.01)

Leans Republican (0-5)
Virginia (R+1.51)
Florida (R+0.34)

Leans Democratic (0-5)
Colorado (D+0.32)
Ohio (D+0.49)
Nevada (D+3.26)
Iowa (D+3.75)
New Hampshire (D+3.82)

Likely Democratic (5-10)
Wisconsin (D+5.37)
Pennsylvania (D+5.60)
Minnesota (D+5.96)
New Mexico (D+6.14)
Oregon (D+8.26)
Michigan (D+8.62)

Solid Democratic (10+)
Washington (D+11.17)
Maine (D+11.68)
New Jersey (D+13.93)
Delaware (D+16.07)
Illinois (D+16.09)
Connecticut (D+16.89)
California (D+17.23)
Maryland (D+20.22)
New York (D+24.57)
Massachusetts (D+25.35)
Vermont (D+25.67)
Rhode Island (D+26.27)
Hawaii (D+28.76)

Interesting, but Virginia being more Republican than Florida is a clear outlier here.
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