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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  "Lean" Democratic states (search mode)
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Author Topic: "Lean" Democratic states  (Read 3449 times)

excelsus
Jr. Member
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Posts: 692
« on: December 25, 2013, 11:12:31 am »

Some states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or even Minnesota have long since been considered toss-ups or "lean Democratic" by the media / polling agencies before a presidential election. After election night, however, the rude awakening comes. Every time.
Why do some people not accept that those states are ineradicably Democratic?
And are there any counterparts on the Republican side?
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excelsus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 692
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2013, 03:15:20 am »

I think pollsters confuse battleground with tipping pt states. Outside of Ia, NV, NM. OH, Va, the others like Wisc and MI are battlegrounds. Florida is as much of a battleground as Pa. The winner can have won the election without it. Hillary is the one that can make AZ the next tipping pt state.

You've got NM in the wrong place - the GOP is more likely to win MI or WI than NM.

Maybe that was just a typo?
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excelsus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 692
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2014, 08:11:30 pm »

I would probably add Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico to your list of lean Democratic states.

New Hampshire and Nevada are likely Democratic states.
New Mexico is safe Democratic.

In addition, I would consider Arizona, Georgia and Missouri lean Republican states.

Missouri is a tossup state when it comes to a Southern Democratic candidate.
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