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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  "Lean" Democratic states (search mode)
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Author Topic: "Lean" Democratic states  (Read 3452 times)
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,712
United States

« on: January 04, 2014, 10:03:18 pm »

Where is the "Virginia = Lean D" argument coming from? I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that Virginia is a Lean Democratic state. The 2013 gubernatorial election may be an indicator of Virginia's trend, it may be a fluke. But a single data point is not enough to create a new case.
Between 2008 and 2012 Virginia only trended from R+1 to EVEN. If we use that as a baseline, then in 2016 Virginia will be D+1, a Democratic tilt but hardly a Lean D state.
If we use 2004 - 2012 as a baseline, Virginia went from R+6 to EVEN, which translates to a D+3 in 2016.
In 2004 Virginia was not contested by Kerry which led to the 8-point margin of victory there. It was heavily contested in 2008 and 2012, and most likely will be in 2016, so I doubt that it will trend as much as it did from 2004-2008.
No one is saying that Virginia, or Colorado and Nevada for that matter, are Lean R. I would say that Virginia and Colorado are tossups and Nevada is a very slight Lean D.

I mostly agree with the OP's list of Lean D states- MI, MN, and WI (I'm unsure about PA at this moment but I would put it in Lean D), as well as NV.
I would say NC is the only Lean R state. It did go D in 2008, but if Bush had won by that margin either time he would have swept the aforementioned five states.
In my opinion, the tossup states are as follows: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire. Advantage R in Florida and Ohio and advantage D in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. Virginia is split evenly.
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