Maps of generic democrats and republicans winning by 5 points
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  Maps of generic democrats and republicans winning by 5 points
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Author Topic: Maps of generic democrats and republicans winning by 5 points  (Read 2272 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: December 30, 2013, 07:43:52 AM »

Republicans:



Democrats:



With shades as well. Both are 332-206 victories. The democratic victory is very similar to Obama's 4 point win. You can make your own maps if you want and judge mine on whether you think its accurate or not.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2013, 12:03:51 PM »

Your maps look pretty good overall, although I might flip North Carolina and maybe Missouri to the Democrats and New Mexico to the Republicans.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2013, 12:14:34 PM »

Your maps look pretty good overall, although I might flip North Carolina and maybe Missouri to the Democrats and New Mexico to the Republicans.

In both of those scenarios, NM and NC are both >40%, so don't get me wrong, they're both toss-ups and can go either way at that point. Missouri however is probably more right-wing than many people think and has trended much to the right recently, so I think republicans would win it in either scenario. I mean, even Obama in 2008 lost it when he won by 7 points and campaigned hard in the state.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2013, 03:06:29 PM »

I would flip Michigan and Minnesota on your Republican victory map. MN has a lower ceiling for the GOP- seems to be more inelastic than Michigan
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2013, 04:36:37 PM »

Your maps look pretty good overall, although I might flip North Carolina and maybe Missouri to the Democrats and New Mexico to the Republicans.

In both of those scenarios, NM and NC are both >40%, so don't get me wrong, they're both toss-ups and can go either way at that point. Missouri however is probably more right-wing than many people think and has trended much to the right recently, so I think republicans would win it in either scenario. I mean, even Obama in 2008 lost it when he won by 7 points and campaigned hard in the state.
You actually have a pretty good point regarding Missouri. It seems that Missouri is a lean/likely Republican state, while North Carolina and New Mexico are swing states that lean slightly Republican and slightly Democratic respectively.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2013, 09:19:46 PM »

Also, CT would go >60% Democratic in a 5 point Democratic win.  Obama did everything possible to alienate CT and he still got 58% in a 3.9 point win.
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2013, 09:44:13 PM »

That's pretty close to what I would say except I think our chances in Minnesota are better than Michigan.
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2013, 09:52:41 PM »

Republicans:



Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2013, 10:51:24 PM »

Also, CT would go >60% Democratic in a 5 point Democratic win.  Obama did everything possible to alienate CT and he still got 58% in a 3.9 point win.

How do you think he alienated Connecticut?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2013, 11:19:33 PM »

I agree with the OP's map. In a 5-point win, Minnesota should NARROWLY (on the order of FL 2000) flip to the Republicans.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2013, 12:24:29 AM »

OP's Republican map looks almost implausible while OP's Democrat map looks to be where I feel the current standing is at nationally right now.

That is what the GOP is facing.
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Orser67
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2014, 03:22:11 PM »

Republicans: It depends on which they improve on more: whites or Hispanics.



Democrats: Obviously this is easier to guess at given Obama's recent victory



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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2014, 06:24:36 PM »

Republicans:



Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

Also, CT would go >60% Democratic in a 5 point Democratic win.  Obama did everything possible to alienate CT and he still got 58% in a 3.9 point win.

Yeah, it should. Sorry about that. But New Jersey (which was also 58%) I will leave >50% due to Obama's over performance there in 2012.

Republicans: It depends on which they improve on more: whites or Hispanics.



Democrats: Obviously this is easier to guess at given Obama's recent victory





I think that's a great map for indicating toss-ups, but I think Nevada would be Lean R. But it could be a toss-up if the GOP keeps alienating Hispanics. (which, I won't be surprised if they keep doing)
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Flake
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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2014, 01:25:37 AM »

Republicans:



Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

The GOP is not done, and it won't be, likely not in my lifetime. Right now, it is much harder for the Republicans to win a national election because of the alienation of hispanics (Nevada and New Mexico would be blue) and I don't see Minnesota voting Republican for a long time. It was the only state in 1984 that Mondale won, and in a landslide 18% victory by Reagan, I think this state will continue to keep to its Democratic roots, but I may be wrong, and the Republican Party wins more white votes, and in that case, it could flip. Michigan and Pennsylvania might also flip for the Republican Party, but personally, the Republican Party has their work cut out for them in a national election. But they are not done.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2014, 07:12:49 PM »

Republicans:



Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

The GOP is not done, and it won't be, likely not in my lifetime. Right now, it is much harder for the Republicans to win a national election because of the alienation of hispanics (Nevada and New Mexico would be blue) and I don't see Minnesota voting Republican for a long time. It was the only state in 1984 that Mondale won, and in a landslide 18% victory by Reagan, I think this state will continue to keep to its Democratic roots, but I may be wrong, and the Republican Party wins more white votes, and in that case, it could flip. Michigan and Pennsylvania might also flip for the Republican Party, but personally, the Republican Party has their work cut out for them in a national election. But they are not done.

I agree with the underlined, but this a hypothetical scenario, which means it doesn't have to be realistic as of the current situation, but realistic with the hypothetical situation (5 point win). The GOP would probably win PA and NH by a few points for a 5 point win. And, for Minnesota, the 1984 argument really doesn't work as its trended significantly to the right since then and Mondale had a huge home state advantage anyway. So, while republicans do have to work on their image and electability, that doesn't just stop them from winning certain states in hypothetical margins of victory.
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Flake
JacobTiver
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« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2014, 07:15:46 PM »

Republicans:



Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

The GOP is not done, and it won't be, likely not in my lifetime. Right now, it is much harder for the Republicans to win a national election because of the alienation of hispanics (Nevada and New Mexico would be blue) and I don't see Minnesota voting Republican for a long time. It was the only state in 1984 that Mondale won, and in a landslide 18% victory by Reagan, I think this state will continue to keep to its Democratic roots, but I may be wrong, and the Republican Party wins more white votes, and in that case, it could flip. Michigan and Pennsylvania might also flip for the Republican Party, but personally, the Republican Party has their work cut out for them in a national election. But they are not done.

I agree with the underlined, but this a hypothetical scenario, which means it doesn't have to be realistic as of the current situation, but realistic with the hypothetical situation (5 point win). The GOP would probably win PA and NH by a few points for a 5 point win. And, for Minnesota, the 1984 argument really doesn't work as its trended significantly to the right since then and Mondale had a huge home state advantage anyway. So, while republicans do have to work on their image and electability, that doesn't just stop them from winning certain states in hypothetical margins of victory.

If it is where the Republican party has improved their image, then I would change Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota to go to the Republicans.
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DS0816
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2014, 04:04:19 AM »
« Edited: January 22, 2014, 06:27:56 AM by DS0816 »

It depends on what the state-after-state margins were in one election cycle; the shift in order to get to that 5-point national margin of victory also having impact on first election cycle; and from there you present an electoral-map model of what a five-point victory looks like for either side.

In 2008, had Barack Obama won not by 7+ but by 5+ percentage points, nationwide, his electoral map would have been what it turned out to be for his re-election in 2012.
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