Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,181
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« on: December 17, 2013, 03:15:04 AM » |
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1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).
Vermont. I don't see any of these people changing their minds.
Although I suppose if a Republican won 49 states it must be a super moderate republican running against a disaster of a democrat, so I suppose I could see a scenario where the last holdout state would be Maryland simply because the combination of blacks that won't vote Republican + other minorities that won't vote Republican + non-moderate ultra party line liberals in Baltimore and Montgomery county would be just enough to push Democrats over the top even in a disaster election.
2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is most likely to be that last state?
Maybe Mississippi - same reason as Maryland above but in reverse, even in an election where lots of moderates and Reagan Democrats help Democrats win states like Georgia, West Virginia, Utah, etc., I could see a lot of white holdouts simply because the voting is so racially polarized.
I don't think either of these scenarios is at all likely considering how polarized and party line elections are nowadays though.
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