49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?
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  49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?
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Author Topic: 49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?  (Read 7738 times)
ag
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« Reply #25 on: December 18, 2013, 08:10:09 AM »

A Mormon Dem, in decent standing with the LDS running against an evangelical R, who makes a point of saying that his opponent is not Christian, could win Utah. I would say OK vs VT
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morgieb
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« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2015, 02:49:26 AM »

Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.

Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.
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H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2015, 03:16:17 AM »

Oklahoma and Rhode Island
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The Free North
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« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2015, 11:46:11 AM »

Wyoming and California
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2015, 12:05:42 PM »

For the Democrats...

They haven't won a county in Oklahoma since 2000. Utah's a good choice though...Oklahoma is probably more conservative, but Utah is probably more partisan. Wyoming is also a good choice. Here's one no one has mentioned: Idaho. Hasn't gone Dem since 1964 and it was very close that year.

For the Republicans..

Not sure what state it is, but I'd rule out Hawaii because it likes incumbents (it would only be the holdout if the D candidate was from the state) and Maryland because it has too many GOP areas, unlike Massachusetts or Vermont. So I'd go with one of those. New York's not a bad choice though...I imagine that even a Republican winning a 49-state landslide would just BARELY carry NY.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2015, 01:42:30 PM »

Oklahoma and Rhode Island
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« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2015, 02:09:56 PM »

I can't really think of a 100% Dem holdout state. VT, WA & OR would be decent candidates. OR for example was found in 2004 to have both the most liberal voters and the most conservative.

As for the GOP, easily MS. I don't care how many blacks MS has, basically 50-52% of MS is the most stubbornly Republican electorate in the country. It is unmovable. Even AL whites would be easier to move since a decent number are Appalachian.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2015, 03:04:12 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2015, 03:08:21 PM by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

A Mormon Dem, in decent standing with the LDS running against an evangelical R, who makes a point of saying that his opponent is not Christian, could win Utah. I would say OK vs VT

You're saying someone like myself? Given how much respect Utah gives Harry Reid, I doubt that.


I'd go with for GOP: One of three anti Citizens United states (Illinois [Chicago machinery for this one], Vermont, or California)

For Dems: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, or Alabama
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #33 on: February 09, 2015, 05:38:55 PM »

Maryland, NY or MA for Democrats.

Utah, Wyoming or Idaho for Republicans.
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5280
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« Reply #34 on: February 10, 2015, 09:58:18 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2015, 09:59:51 PM by 5280 »




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htc710
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« Reply #35 on: February 12, 2015, 06:07:30 PM »

DC and MD for Dems

or,

UT and NE-03 for GOP

I tried to post maps, but apparently I need at least 20 posts to be able to do that. Sorry, I'm new.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: February 13, 2015, 12:53:34 AM »

Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.

Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.

Hawaii, which is even more exaggerated in its minority-majority identity than California, would hold out longer than California.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: February 13, 2015, 01:06:17 AM »

Let's try for 13 electoral votes (1984).




Fourteen for a Republican mismatch for most of the US.



A Republican nominee incompetent enough to offend the Mormon hierarchy.

In both, the Republican wins NE-03, one of the most Republican districts in America
 



1984 all over.
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morgieb
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« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2015, 02:39:40 AM »

Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.

Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.

Hawaii, which is even more exaggerated in its minority-majority identity than California, would hold out longer than California.
Hawaii is really incumbent-friendly though, perhaps down to its Asian culture. It probably would be the last holdout if the Republicans won 49 states despite not being an incumbent, but if anyone was to win a landslide of that proportion, they'd be an incumbent.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #39 on: December 21, 2016, 07:35:37 PM »

At this point, Alabama and Maryland
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Xing
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« Reply #40 on: December 21, 2016, 08:02:59 PM »

You'd have to wonder what sort of candidates would have to run under the right conditions for a 49-state landslide to even be possible, before considering which state would be the holdout. Obviously, the less elastic states are more likely to be holdouts, as are states that seem averse to the other party at all levels.

As of right now, I'd say Oklahoma and Maryland.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #41 on: December 21, 2016, 11:36:01 PM »

Republicans: Wyoming
Democrats: California or Hawaii (if CA continues to trend D, the former prevails; if HI swings back to 70-75 D then the latter prevails)
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Ronnie
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« Reply #42 on: December 22, 2016, 02:39:20 AM »

I'd say California and Alabama, particularly if the Republican is someone like Donald Trump.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #43 on: December 22, 2016, 03:03:21 AM »

A Mormon Dem, in decent standing with the LDS running against an evangelical R, who makes a point of saying that his opponent is not Christian, could win Utah. I would say OK vs VT

Fix this post with "someone like Donald Trump" and that is closer to the truth.

Anyway, with the way this election turned out, probably HI vs WY

WV would be the Massachusetts '84/Minnesota '72 in a D landslide, CA would likely be the reverse.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #44 on: December 22, 2016, 10:47:25 AM »

For D's, probably Utah, because for democrat to win KT and TN, a huge flip of white republicans would be needed. That flip would affect all of the south.

For R's probably CA.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #45 on: December 22, 2016, 12:05:59 PM »

West Virginia still has a lot of Democrats and I'd think they'd vote well to the left of Wyoming in a Republican nightmare scenario.

I'd say either Maryland or California for Democrats.  Hawaii is different from the rest of the country.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #46 on: December 22, 2016, 12:13:11 PM »

West Virginia still has a lot of Democrats and I'd think they'd vote well to the left of Wyoming in a Republican nightmare scenario.

I'd say either Maryland or California for Democrats.  Hawaii is different from the rest of the country.

I think this is what we need to imagine.  WV is uber-Republican right now, but 1) that is REALLY based on the last two Democrats + Trump appeal and 2) this is far from a "nightmare scenario" for either party.  In a 1932/1972-type scenario for Democrats (winning), WV would certainly get on board, IMO.  Such a scenario would cast voting Republican in an almost-indefensible light (likely due to economic conditions), and all the WV Dems would likely come home in desperate times.

I am going to go with Wyoming for Republicans and Maryland for Democrats.
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LLR
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« Reply #47 on: December 22, 2016, 12:18:24 PM »

I'm gonna say Oklahoma for Ds (West Virginia and Kentucky still have the Bill Clinton thing, and Wyoming Idaho and Utah all have the Mormon thing. North Dakota isn't conservative enough yet.)

and California for Rs. It's huge, mostly urban, and has Hispanics, Asians, liberal whites, and some African-Americans. Maryland would just require a very popular black Republican - Hawai'i was close in 2004. New York and Vermont also flip before CA.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #48 on: December 22, 2016, 01:18:51 PM »

Hawaii and Wyoming.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #49 on: December 22, 2016, 02:56:56 PM »

Wyoming and California.
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