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  Talk Elections
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  49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?
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Author Topic: 49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?  (Read 7105 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: December 15, 2013, 10:14:26 pm »
« edited: December 16, 2013, 03:21:20 am by Nichlemn »

1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).

2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is most likely to be that last state?

#1 I'm really not sure at all. Purely on CPVI, you have Hawaii at D+20, Vermont behind at D+16 and several other states all well behind at D+11. But those are Obama-specific numbers, go back to the Bush years and those states are much further back. Nate Silver's elasticties for each state gives us an indication - HI, VT, RI and MA are all strongly Democratic states that are nonetheless all well-above average in elasticity, and hence could easily vote for a Republican running strongly nationally. MD and NY, as strongly Democratic and inelastic states, may well be the last holdouts.


#2 Utah is the obvious pick. Wyoming seems slightly more elastic (see it electing a fair number of Democratic governors recently). I could see Oklahoma against the wrong kind of candidate (a highly successful Obama-clone?), but it has ancestral Democratic support that could turn out for a broadly successful national Democrat. Alabama and maybe Mississippi are the other possibilities - less Republican than Utah, but much more inelastic. Still, they have a bit of residual Blue Doggedness.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2013, 10:33:52 pm »

1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is the most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).

Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Massachusetts are all plausible options. Hawaii is probably too elastic to be the last state and Obama over performed there anyways. MA, VT, and RI are all elastic, but they are elastic in a way that would vote for a moderate republican. Since we know that's unlikely to happen at the presidential level, we can probably forget the elasticity argument for those states. Vermont would be my #1 guess, especially recently.

2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is the most likely to be that last state?

Utah, definitely. Utah has always been the most republican state I think since 1976, with the exception of 2008. Other options could include Wyoming (especially with its recent trend), Idaho, Oklahoma, and even Alabama (for its in-elasticity). If states like WV, AR, TN, KY trend even further to the right, those could also be possibilities.
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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2013, 12:02:14 am »

Not Rhode Island.

I think Massachusetts or Vermont for the Democrats, and Utah for the Republicans.
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Cath
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2013, 12:39:44 am »

VT, UT. All floating around the number 8 button on my flip cell phone, which contains the letters "TUV".
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2013, 12:47:55 am »

Vermont has elected plenty of Republicans to statewide though their most recent Governor was a Republican. I can't remember the last time Utah has elected Democrat statewide.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2013, 12:52:01 am »

The thing is that a lot of the traditionally elastic states barely moved an inch from 2008-2012 and some traditionally in elastic states moved in surprising ways.  I would go by best non-home state numbers for the past 2 cycles.  That means VT for last D holdout and your pick of WY/OK for the last R holdout.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2013, 01:06:39 am »

These would probably be realistic maps:




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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2013, 02:48:13 am »

Definitely Utah for the GOP. I'm gonna say Maryland for the Democrats, but that one's a lot more up in the air.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2013, 03:36:34 am »

The polarization in this country is so high now (including geographic polarization) that it borders on impossible for a candidate to do well in both a state like New York and a state like Oklahoma and win them both (even though FDR, Eisenhower, LBJ, Nixon and Reagan managed to).

I'm going to be slightly more realistic and suggest a 44-state landslide, like the ones FDR got in 1932 and Reagan got in 1980. (Carter also won DC in 1980, which could not vote in 1932). The losing candidate wins 6 states in each case.



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Nichlemn
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2013, 04:38:13 am »

The polarization in this country is so high now (including geographic polarization) that it borders on impossible for a candidate to do well in both a state like New York and a state like Oklahoma and win them both (even though FDR, Eisenhower, LBJ, Nixon and Reagan managed to).

I'm going to be slightly more realistic and suggest a 44-state landslide, like the ones FDR got in 1932 and Reagan got in 1980. (Carter also won DC in 1980, which could not vote in 1932). The losing candidate wins 6 states in each case.





On the D-landslide map, AL should be blue, and possibly MS. TN's R swing is too recent for me think it should belong. I'd go for KS over NE.

The D map seems reasonable to me.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2013, 07:10:12 am »

A massive landslide is possible, I just don't think it will be as much of a uniform improvement around the board as some people think.  The kind of Democrat who would sweep the Rocky Mountain West and the South I imagine would have to be running a pretty dang populist message that might upset a few people in New York and Connecticut, thus actually driving down their numbers in those states as opposed to an Obamalike Democrat who could easily get over 60% there.  Same thing could be said about a Republican who ends up winning New Jersey and New York.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2013, 07:45:13 am »

A massive landslide is possible, I just don't think it will be as much of a uniform improvement around the board as some people think.  The kind of Democrat who would sweep the Rocky Mountain West and the South I imagine would have to be running a pretty dang populist message that might upset a few people in New York and Connecticut, thus actually driving down their numbers in those states as opposed to an Obamalike Democrat who could easily get over 60% there.  Same thing could be said about a Republican who ends up winning New Jersey and New York.

It's a lot more likely that the winner would be an incumbent with a strong economy or other reason for their popularity other than their ideology.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2013, 07:48:55 am »
« Edited: December 16, 2013, 07:50:56 am by Cryptic »

Probably Vermont for the Democrats. 

Definitely Utah for the GOP.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2013, 12:23:05 pm »

A massive landslide is possible, I just don't think it will be as much of a uniform improvement around the board as some people think.  The kind of Democrat who would sweep the Rocky Mountain West and the South I imagine would have to be running a pretty dang populist message that might upset a few people in New York and Connecticut, thus actually driving down their numbers in those states as opposed to an Obamalike Democrat who could easily get over 60% there.  Same thing could be said about a Republican who ends up winning New Jersey and New York.

It's a lot more likely that the winner would be an incumbent with a strong economy or other reason for their popularity other than their ideology.

Yes, point is though that I severely doubt any presidential candidate is going to get over 70% in New York.  It's like a "how much more Democratic can San Francisco" get kind of scenario.
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Orser67
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2013, 05:19:09 pm »

I agree with what someone else said that you aren't going to see a 49 state victory by anyone. If either major party candidate was that bad or had that broad of an appeal, I think you'd see an independent candidate take a few states.

I'd say:



So basically conservative Western states and polarized Southern states.



So basically states where Republicans can't overcome some combination of big cities, minorities, and liberal whites.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2013, 09:47:54 pm »

Utah would be the last republican holdout, no question about it


Democrats are a bit harder. I think Vermont is the most liberal, but given that its all white, it makes me a little less inclined to chose it considering whites vote for both parties whereas minorities generally vote dem only. Massachusetts would be a good choice then, although Hawaii is interesting though its large Asian population makes it a bit of a wildcard
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2013, 11:05:41 pm »

Wyoming might be even more of a holdout than Utah. Romney was more popular there than the typical Republican (just as Obama was stronger in Hawaii than the typical Republican.) Nebraska's third congressional district is probably the Republican equivalent of Washington DC, so that's probably joining Wyoming.

On the Democratic side, Vermont's been getting more left-wing, although it was within ten points recently enough in 2000. Rhode Island's consistently in the top five, but other states are beating it. New York's been getting more liberal, and it's a really expensive media market. Although numbers were probably inflated in 2012 thanks to Sandy. Massachusetts has another expensive media market, and that's been pretty consistently Democratic. My guess is that the last state standing in a Republican landslide would be Massachusetts (along with DC.)
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Harry
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2013, 12:08:33 am »

Mississippi was Romney's 17th best state and gets more Democratic every year as olds die and replaced by youngs.  Even John Kerry won the under-30s in Mississippi (now the under-39 population), and he only did that in about 30 states.

By 2016, I bet Mississippi is the 19th or 20th most Republican state.  It simply doesn't belong as a holdout on a 40+ state Democratic landslide.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2013, 03:15:04 am »

1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).

Vermont.  I don't see any of these people changing their minds. 

Although I suppose if a Republican won 49 states it must be a super moderate republican running against a disaster of a democrat, so I suppose I could see a scenario where the last holdout state would be Maryland simply because the combination of blacks that won't vote Republican + other minorities that won't vote Republican + non-moderate ultra party line liberals in Baltimore and Montgomery county would be just enough to push Democrats over the top even in a disaster election.

2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is most likely to be that last state?

Maybe Mississippi - same reason as Maryland above but in reverse, even in an election where lots of moderates and Reagan Democrats help Democrats win states like Georgia, West Virginia, Utah, etc., I could see a lot of white holdouts simply because the voting is so racially polarized.

I don't think either of these scenarios is at all likely considering how polarized and party line elections are nowadays though.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2013, 01:39:29 pm »

That's an interesting theory re: Maryland and Mississippi.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2013, 02:51:41 pm »

Vermont or Maryland for the Republican and Utah or Oklahoma for the Democrat.
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morgieb
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2013, 02:59:02 pm »

I reckon Maryland is actually a pretty decent answer. Hawaii loves incumbents (which frankly is the only way a Republican's getting a 49-state landslide), and the triumvirate of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont can still and have voted for moderate Republicans (which the Republican would have to be). New York could be another one, I guess, but I reckon it's the right sort of state that could consider a certain slant of Republican. Of course, if it was a conservative who was just crazy popular, then the answer would be Vermont.

Republicans, the correct answer is Utah. Oklahoma if it is a crazy popular liberal, but it definitely would vote for the right kind of Democrat.

To who said Mississippi - I reckon Alabama's a better fit. With Mississippi you only need about 20-25% of the white vote to win (which granted is hard), but Alabama's black population is smaller and the polarisation is only slightly better.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2013, 03:20:12 pm »

I reckon Maryland is actually a pretty decent answer. Hawaii loves incumbents (which frankly is the only way a Republican's getting a 49-state landslide), and the triumvirate of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont can still and have voted for moderate Republicans (which the Republican would have to be). New York could be another one, I guess, but I reckon it's the right sort of state that could consider a certain slant of Republican. Of course, if it was a conservative who was just crazy popular, then the answer would be Vermont.

Republicans, the correct answer is Utah. Oklahoma if it is a crazy popular liberal, but it definitely would vote for the right kind of Democrat.

To who said Mississippi - I reckon Alabama's a better fit. With Mississippi you only need about 20-25% of the white vote to win (which granted is hard), but Alabama's black population is smaller and the polarisation is only slightly better.
I agree with you about Vermont. If a Republican such as Jon Huntsman received the nomination and faced off against a particular weak Democrat, then Huntsman could potentially carry Vermont, albeit barely. In Oklahoma, it seems that the more conservative Republican candidates do the best in the state, so even if it is a Hillary Clinton vs Rick Santorum race, Santorum would still win the state by a landslide even if he was losing big elsewhere.
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Sol
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« Reply #23 on: December 17, 2013, 04:21:51 pm »

Maryland, definitely. It's county map is deceptive, but it certainly isn't one to vote for pubbies, particularly Nat'l ones.
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2013, 09:44:06 pm »

Vermont and Oklahoma
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