when did missouri cease being a swing state?

[WalterMitty]

circa 2000.

[IceSpear]

Obama. Missouri was only a couple points more Republican than the country in 2000 and 2004. Hillary will likely be very competitive there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hillary will regain lost ground. I don't know if she can win it though. It depends on how much of the shift is entirely because of Obama (hostile rural wwc area shifts and etc) and what is the result of the emptying out of St. Louis. Hillary can fix the former, but the not the latter. She isn't that great a candidate.

[CatoMinor]

Missouri won't be a swing state once Hillary takes it back for the Dems once and for all. From what I have gathered, Hill-dog's map to victory should look like this.

Edit: Please note I was not being serious with this map lol...

[henster]

At this point MO is too far gone like WV for Hillary to win it in 2016 after 8 years of Obama. She will definitely do better than Obama did in 2012 but I doubt she would win the best she could hope for is a narrow loss.

[ElectionsGuy]

Missouri won't be a swing state once Hillary takes it back for the Dems once and for all. From what I have gathered, Hill-dog's map to victory should look like this.

I see we're back in 1996

[RosettaStoned]

Missouri won't be a swing state once Hillary takes it back for the Dems once and for all. From what I have gathered, Hill-dog's map to victory should look like this.

 That is far too generous to Hill-Dog.

[WalterMitty]

At this point MO is too far gone like WV for Hillary to win it in 2016 after 8 years of Obama. She will definitely do better than Obama did in 2012 but I doubt she would win the best she could hope for is a narrow loss.

correct answer.

[Mr.Phips]

Missouri won't be a swing state once Hillary takes it back for the Dems once and for all. From what I have gathered, Hill-dog's map to victory should look like this.

 That is far too generous to Hill-Dog.

Yeah, if even Mark Pryor is struggling in Arkansas, Hillary ain't winning there.  Tennessee and Kentucky are not winnable either.

[Kevin]

The Dems can still win MO with the right candidate.

Plus the D's control the Governorship and one of the State's Senate Seats. MO was also very close in 2000 and 2008 plus it wasn't out of reach for the Democrats in 2004 ether.

[henster]

Would be interesting to see a Nixon vs. Blunt Senate match up in 2016 and see how that turns out with Clinton at the top of the ticket. I think that would be a race to watch.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Nixon-Blunt will be competative regardless. If it ceases to be so, then it means Nixon is running away with. I never did much care for Blunt because he was so close to Tom Delay back in the day and I frankly don't see what he offers against Nixon except lots of establishment money and incumbency.

In fact, we might be better off with an open seat.

[Conflicted Progressive]

At this point MO is too far gone like WV for Hillary to win it in 2016 after 8 years of Obama. She will definitely do better than Obama did in 2012 but I doubt she would win the best she could hope for is a narrow loss.

Missouri is nowhere near as difficult for Hillary to win as WV. Obama got 35% in WV, 44% in MO.

[henster]

It really depends on who Clinton is running against if its Christie she may do much better in rural Missouri since I see Christie as being a bad fit for the region. Rural Missourians may be turned off by Christie completely and either not vote at all or vote for Clinton instead who's a better fit there. Against any other Republican and she loses narrowly of course. 

[Consciously Unconscious]

Post 2008.  It was the closest state in 2008, so it was still a swing state then.  Now, it is not. 

[illegaloperation]

There are many reasons, but two main ones.

1. Kansas City barely grew and St. Louis actually lost population. This is just part of the urban/rural divide.

2. Southern whites are leaving the Democratic Party.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At this point MO is too far gone like WV for Hillary to win it in 2016 after 8 years of Obama. She will definitely do better than Obama did in 2012 but I doubt she would win the best she could hope for is a narrow loss.

Missouri is nowhere near as difficult for Hillary to win as WV. Obama got 35% in WV, 44% in MO.

West Virginia has fewer minority voters and thus a much lower floor then in a state like Missouri where there is more to hold them up above 40%.

[henster]

At this point MO is too far gone like WV for Hillary to win it in 2016 after 8 years of Obama. She will definitely do better than Obama did in 2012 but I doubt she would win the best she could hope for is a narrow loss.

Missouri is nowhere near as difficult for Hillary to win as WV. Obama got 35% in WV, 44% in MO.

West Virginia has fewer minority voters and thus a much lower floor then in a state like Missouri where there is more to hold them up above 40%.

Fewer? Their basically nonexistent lol.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Meh, it still is a close state. I would say it still is one, just that Obama isn't a good candidate for the state.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri and North Carolina were mirror images of each other in 2008 in that:

Obama won more votes than McCain in 2008 in North Carolina, but by a lesser margin than the difference between right-wing Barr and left-wing Nader. The right-leaning votes in North Carolina (McCain, Barr) were more than the left-leaning votes (Obama, Nader).

McCain won more votes in Missouri than did Obama, but the left-leaning votes in Missouri altogether (Obama, Nader) were more than the right-leaning votes in Missouri (McCain, Barr).

Except for Missouri and North Carolina -- and I even got NE-02 right -- I predicted the 2008 election in all states. Not figuring how the third-party candidates would do tripped me up for Missouri and North Carolina. 

   

[DS0816]

Missouri may now be in sync with Indiana the way that Virginia and Colorado started developing the trend back in 1996. Mo. and Ind.—though officially different colors in 2008 with the latter a narrow Democratic pickup and the former a narrow Republican hold—were no more than a full point in spread in their 2012 margins. Since 1996, Va. and Colo. have been no greater than 3.53 percent in spread (from 2004) with the last five election cycles. It may be wise to consider Missouri and Indiana becoming a pair.

[New_Conservative]

I don't see Hilary winning Missouri in 2016, though she will be competitive there.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

It was still pretty close in 2012...

[MATTROSE94]

I guess 2008 or 2012. Today Missouri is now more of a lean Republican state in the same category as Arizona and Georgia due to the shifts in the ideologies of the major political parties and demographic changes in the state. I am thinking that Hillary Clinton has a decent chance to win Missouri in 2016 if Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum get the Republican nomination though.

[Cryptic]

It shifted away in 2012, but how much of that was Obama and/or other factors is debatable.  I think we need to wait till 2016 to see if how much a shift that really is.