MI-Rasmussen: Land (R) up 2
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Author Topic: MI-Rasmussen: Land (R) up 2  (Read 961 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 17, 2014, 11:26:24 AM »

Land (R) 37%, Peters (D) 35%

8% prefer some other candidate, and 20% are undecided this early in the year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/michigan/election_2014_michigan_senate
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2014, 11:40:38 AM »

The most believable poll I've seen of Michigan in a looooooooooooooong time.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2014, 11:50:35 AM »

Looks like this race is a tossup right now.

Although I expect it to break Peters' way in the end, Democrats in Michigan don't seem to vote during midterms, so Land could definitely pull it out.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2014, 11:52:35 AM »

I would guess that most of the undecideds are Democrats. The writing is on the wall here.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2014, 11:54:10 AM »

I expect undecideds to break Dem as happened in CT, CA, MA, recently. Though I have seen the argument that given Peters' name ID in Detroit, the number may not be as big as presumed.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2014, 03:28:34 PM »

The most believable poll I've seen of Michigan in a looooooooooooooong time.

This, so much. I'm hopeful Rasmussen can improve without Scott; before the 2010 cycle, they were considered to be a good pollster. The last ~4-5 years have not been good for them.


Why are you so confident in Land's chances? She's only leading by 2 points here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2014, 04:24:19 PM »

Rasmussen has the Obama approvals right where the Dems need to wind up with only a 50/50 senate. MI along with La and MnT will be the bellweathers of the night. Laundries will be very close to 50 percent I think in the next poll.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2014, 04:29:54 PM »

This sounds about right.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2014, 05:01:34 PM »

Now this is probably a realistic poll. Moving this race to a toss-up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2014, 05:18:29 PM »

The most believable poll I've seen of Michigan in a looooooooooooooong time.

This, so much. I'm hopeful Rasmussen can improve without Scott; before the 2010 cycle, they were considered to be a good pollster. The last ~4-5 years have not been good for them.


Why are you so confident in Land's chances? She's only leading by 2 points here.

I'm saying that the writing is on the wall for Republicans. Nearly tied in the 30s in a blue state doesn't equal a win for a Republican, unless she's hitting high 40s at some points, the edge is still with Peters, since undecideds are undoubtedly Democrats.

Plus, Land has refused to take a stance on the rape insurance bill, which will hurt her greatly once Peters runs ads focusing on it.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2014, 07:11:39 PM »

This looks like Rasmussen is showing the floor for each candidate. Will Terri Lynn Land secure at least 37% of voters? Yep. Will Gary Peters secure at least 35% of voters? Yep.

What I don't get is the 8% that say "someone other candidate." The last Third Party candidate to get >4% in a Michigan Senate race was in 1994, and no real Third Party candidate has emerged, to my knowledge.
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