MI-Gov, PPP: Snyder in the lead
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  MI-Gov, PPP: Snyder in the lead
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Author Topic: MI-Gov, PPP: Snyder in the lead  (Read 3039 times)
krazen1211
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« on: December 10, 2013, 09:17:02 AM »
« edited: December 10, 2013, 12:04:23 PM by krazen1211 »

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Snyder 44
Schauer 40


Great news! Snyder is certainly soaring in the polls as a result of Schauercare. And of course his excellent busting of those unions in Detroit before they harm the people.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2013, 09:32:25 AM »

Schauercare? What is it?
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2013, 09:44:50 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2013, 10:11:10 AM by Sawx. »

Called it.

Thankfully the biggest problem seems to be that the Dems have no name recognition. If Schauer can get his ass in gear before Snyder can define him, he's got this. I'm still pretty confident.

@Windjammer - Krazen is being Krazen again. Schauercare is Obamacare.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2013, 10:25:15 AM »

Misspelling Snyder's name is a pretty good indicator why krazey wasn't his teacher's favorite pet.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2013, 11:58:30 AM »

Snyder is a very strong candidate still, and his approvals are improving. I have a feeling Schauer is going to lose this.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2013, 12:37:21 PM »

An incumbent governor at 44% against a candidate no one's heard of is hardly anything to celebrate...
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2013, 02:09:42 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2013, 02:14:19 PM by dmmidmi »

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Snyder 44
Schauer 40


Great news! Snyder is certainly soaring in the polls as a result of Schauercare. And of course his excellent busting of those unions in Detroit before they harm the people.

So, the Nerd--who gets all kinds of free publicity, and gets to tout his public accomplishments on TV regularly--is barely leading someone nobody has heard of, outside of the margin of error. How is this great news for him?

Before the poll came out, I expected Snyder's lead to be in the 6-8 point range.
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2013, 12:29:24 AM »

This poll is actually better for Schauer than the other ones I've seen.

Still think this Tilts R though.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2013, 12:47:28 AM »

Weren't you bragging about how Snyder was ahead by 14 points? This looks like quite a drop for him, considering you wholeheartedly embraced the other poll...
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2013, 01:10:16 AM »

Weren't you bragging about how Snyder was ahead by 14 points? This looks like quite a drop for him, considering you wholeheartedly embraced the other poll...

He is disappointed. That's why he moved it down from "Dominating!" to "Great News!".
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2013, 07:13:36 AM »

"The Snyder leads are absurd" my ass.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2013, 11:43:38 AM »


The lead is weak. Because the 2014 midterm in Michigan will have everything but a hot Presidential race, it should have a high participation rate which would work badly for Republicans. The Republican-dominated State Legislature is extremely unpopular. The unions will be out for bear elephant in an election that they believe that they must win.

An incumbent governor at 44% against a candidate no one's heard of is hardly anything to celebrate...


Most telling, his approval rate is at 42%. Medicaid roll-out? President Obama will get the credit more than will Governor Snyder.

Rick Snyder has yet to show that he can win except against a weak opponent in an R wave election. Nate Silver has shown that incumbents have about a 50% chance of winning re-election when their approval rating is about 44% because they usually show why they got elected. Below 44% they usually show that electing them the last time was a mistake.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2013, 04:05:11 PM »


I don't think anyone said that. But the Snyder 14 point lead was most definitely absurd.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2013, 04:39:27 PM »


I don't think anyone said that. But the Snyder 14 point lead was most definitely absurd.

A lot of people said that, and yes the 14 point lead was absurd but people were actually saying a more realistic 2-6 point lead was absurd.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2013, 04:47:24 PM »

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/michigan_legislature_approves_1.html

Snyder will likely be sharing the ballot with rape insurance referendum I expect him to go down along with it.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2013, 06:14:52 PM »

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/michigan_legislature_approves_1.html

Snyder will likely be sharing the ballot with rape insurance referendum I expect him to go down along with it.

He may make it crystal clear that he's in total opposition to the referendum. He did veto this exact bill a year ago. If this referendum is less popular than he is (which I completely expect it to be), there's no way he'd embrace it--especially since he didn't the first time.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2013, 09:50:31 PM »

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/michigan_legislature_approves_1.html

Snyder will likely be sharing the ballot with rape insurance referendum I expect him to go down along with it.

He may make it crystal clear that he's in total opposition to the referendum. He did veto this exact bill a year ago. If this referendum is less popular than he is (which I completely expect it to be), there's no way he'd embrace it--especially since he didn't the first time.

Even if he distances himself from it, there remains the possibility that the referendum will draw people (specifically young single women) to the polls who would not ordinarily turn out in a non-presidential year. Couple that with possible marijuana and gay marriage referendums bringing out young voters, Snyder would be in big trouble.
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2013, 10:11:43 PM »

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/michigan_legislature_approves_1.html

Snyder will likely be sharing the ballot with rape insurance referendum I expect him to go down along with it.

He may make it crystal clear that he's in total opposition to the referendum. He did veto this exact bill a year ago. If this referendum is less popular than he is (which I completely expect it to be), there's no way he'd embrace it--especially since he didn't the first time.

Even if he distances himself from it, there remains the possibility that the referendum will draw people (specifically young single women) to the polls who would not ordinarily turn out in a non-presidential year. Couple that with possible marijuana and gay marriage referendums bringing out young voters, Snyder would be in big trouble.

Not to mention the Unions who will coming to vote against Snyder in droves because of the RTW bill he signed that was forced through earlier this year. The Dems will hang this rape insurance around the neck of every Republican running no matter if they support it or don't. And what happens if Snyder comes out strongly against this something a lot Republicans probably support, he'll be seen as a RINO and they won't come and vote for him. In my view Snyder is toast this race is Lean D as I see it.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #18 on: December 16, 2013, 07:48:01 AM »

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/michigan_legislature_approves_1.html

Snyder will likely be sharing the ballot with rape insurance referendum I expect him to go down along with it.

He may make it crystal clear that he's in total opposition to the referendum. He did veto this exact bill a year ago. If this referendum is less popular than he is (which I completely expect it to be), there's no way he'd embrace it--especially since he didn't the first time.

Even if he distances himself from it, there remains the possibility that the referendum will draw people (specifically young single women) to the polls who would not ordinarily turn out in a non-presidential year. Couple that with possible marijuana and gay marriage referendums bringing out young voters, Snyder would be in big trouble.

Snyder and Schauer are tied at 42% in the 18-45 crowd, and Schauer only leads Snyder among women 43-37. Higher turnout probably won't be enough.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #19 on: January 02, 2014, 12:56:36 PM »

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2013-12-08

Summary: D: 40%, R: 44%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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