MI-Sen, PPP: Land in the lead

[Kevin]

First they say, "LOL at anyone believing a Michigan-based pollster!!!" Now it's, "Well, PPP can be wrong sometimes..."

The excuses will have me literally doubled over next year.

I guess they are having trouble facing up to the fact that Peters will have a tougher time holding this seat for the Democrats then they predicted.

[Kevin]

Two percent in the low forties is soaring? Please. If Land doesn't poll out of the low 40s at some point, she's not winning this race and it's very unlikely she will, as she's from the wrong part of the state. Hoekstra had the same issue, wrong part of the state.

Why do you say that?

Not saying that your wrong, but if nether candidate somehow breaks towards 50% wouldn't the race be anyone's guess?

Imo opinion I would say that it is more then likely that Land would out of the low 40's given that  nationally the momentum appears on the GOP's side for now.(however, that doesn't mean she will win).

[Kevin]

It's worth noting that more undecided voters in this poll are conservatives than liberals. 10% of "Very Conservative" voters and 21% of "Somewhat Conservative" voters are undecided, compared to 7% of "Very Liberal" voters and 18% of "Somewhat Liberal Voters". Conservative voters also make up a great percentage of the electorate.

Now, my math skills are a bit rough, but based on this poll, if Land were to take 85% of conservative voters and 15% of liberal voters (which would be the rough numbers if all undecided voters on each side break towards the candidate closest to them politically), she would only need 40% of the moderate vote to be at 50% statewide.

Land is already at 32% with moderate voters, compared to 45% for Peters and 23% undecided. Land only needs to get 35% of undecided moderates to be at 50% statewide.

In conclusion, despite the comments by many on the left in this thread, if we were to assume this poll was completely accurate, undecided voters are more conservative and would likely hand the election to Land. Peter's will not only need to maintain his base, but also convince a vast majority of moderate voters and even some conservative voters who are undecided to his side.

On the other hand, more undecided voters voted Obama than Romney. Hence why a poll can be interpretative many different ways. Personally, this tells me that this is a winnable race for Republicans.

Also you forgot to add that conservative/GOP leaning voters typically underpoll in Midterms. Cs. Presidential elections where Democratic leaning voters also incur the same effect.