Why did California trend liberal?

[phk]

Okay anybody venture a guess?

Was it always trending liberal and Reagan "masked" that trend?

[WalterMitty]

two big reason:

1. the often mentioned rise of the religious right.

2. (and probably most importantly)  the state gop party imploded in the 90s (thanks to pete wilson and his anti-immigrant crusade)

im confident the gop can make a comeback in california.  there are tons of conservatives and free-marketeers in cali.

[opebo]

two big reason:

1. the often mentioned rise of the religious right.

2. (and probably most importantly)  the state gop party imploded in the 90s (thanks to pete wilson and his anti-immigrant crusade)

im confident the gop can make a comeback in california.  there are tons of conservatives and free-marketeers in cali.

You are so right in your #1 - the natural reaction of freedom loving people to the religious right is to vote against them, and that means voting Democrat.

As for the chances of the GOP making a comeback in CA?  Nearly zero - the GOP is now the Religious Party, and the Democrats have moved so far rightward economically that they are plenty free-market for Californians.  Virtually no chance of the GOP getting CA back.

[Rob]

A rising black/Mexican population, coupled with "white flight" (conservative whites fled to surrounding states).

[angus]

well, if by "liberal" you mean what, say, the germans mean when you say liberal, then I'd say that it has to do with isolation and relative economic success.  For example, Gray Davis is a farily rightist democrat by the standards of the democrat party, and fairly well represents the stereotypical "shallowness" (i.e., lack of gaff for moralist/traditionalist values) and economic success of the people of California.  Also, Individualism has always been the dominant political culture in the West.  It is only on a thin strip along the pacific coastline in which Moralism is the dominant political culture (e.g., SF and Seattle).  And even in those isolated markets, the moralism has a markedly different quality than that exhibited in, say, Boston.  Remember, the gold rush brought in, between 1849 and 1869, about 1000 males to every one female.  That alone explains a great deal about San Francisco.  But at some point in the early 20th century Losangelinos began to outnumber San Franciscans, mostly due to an influx of oakies and other midwesterners, so a heavy influx of traditionalism began to displace much of the already extant individualism.  This is still evident in Orange County, for example, and certainly the cohabitation of traditionalists and individualists has led to the Tax Revolt of 1978, proposition 209, and some of the most Rightist congressmen the US congress has known.

If, on the other hand, by "liberal" you mean Leftist, then you have been watching far too much Fox News Channel.  Not all california Democrats are Nanci Pelosi.  Take a pill.

[The Duke]

As for the chances of the GOP making a comeback in CA?  Nearly zero - the GOP is now the Religious Party, and the Democrats have moved so far rightward economically that they are plenty free-market for Californians.  Virtually no chance of the GOP getting CA back.

Said the guy who lives in Thailand.

[Citizen James]

It didn't.  The GOP made a hard turn to the far right.

Mitty and Angus summed it up pretty well.    The golden state has long been fiscially conservative and socially moderate (or liberal, depending on your perspective).   Davis got bounced for many of the same reasons that Bush is unpopular here - he failed to ballance the budget, and he was far too much in the pocket of special interests.

The gop lost a lot of the fence sitters (Including myself) over the afformentioned state party meltdown, the party making social conservitism it's defining nature, and Clinton's fiscially responsible policies.   The manipulation of the energy market by some of Bush good buddies, and his total failure to remedy this crime, probably didn't help much either. 

Were the GOP to nominate a moderate, CA could be in play again.  But with the current domination of the party from the far right, I don't see that as  likely in the near future.

[The Duke]

The party didn'tturn right, the party has always been to the right.  REAGAN WAS ON THE HARD RIGHT! How anyone can say we turned to the right is beyond me.  Reagan was a arch conservative, Pete Wilson was pro-choice.  We did not turn far right.

The main cause was immigration.  A large demographic group that votes overwhelmingly Democratic appeared.  Gee, how did the Democrats take over?  I wonder...

[Alcon]

The 1976 map says it all:



Here's some notable counties and their results:

Alameda County: Carter 58%, Ford 38%
The Democrats just did not control the Bay Area like they now do. Even the most liberal areas were only D>60%.

Contra Costa County: Ford 49%, Carter 48%
Areas that are now semi-strongholds for Democrats (especially Hispanic areas) were then toss-ups.

Los Angeles County: Carter 50%, Ford 48%
Los Angeles County was close.

San Diego County: Ford 56%, Carter 42%
San Diego County was a lot more Republican than it is now.

San Francisco County: Carter 52%, Ford 40%
Republicans could actually get 40% in San Francisco (!!!).

It's not entirely immigrants, although that is part of it. It's just that rural areas have become more Republican, and cities for the most part more Democratic. Since more people in California live in cities than rural areas, it's trended towards the Democrats.

At least that's what it seems to be to me.

[phk]

The 1976 map says it all:



Here's some notable counties and their results:

Alameda County: Carter 58%, Ford 38%
The Democrats just did not control the Bay Area like they now do. Even the most liberal areas were only D>60%.

Contra Costa County: Ford 49%, Carter 48%
Areas that are now semi-strongholds for Democrats (especially Hispanic areas) were then toss-ups.

Los Angeles County: Carter 50%, Ford 48%
Los Angeles County was close.

San Diego County: Ford 56%, Carter 42%
San Diego County was a lot more Republican than it is now.

San Francisco County: Carter 52%, Ford 40%
Republicans could actually get 40% in San Francisco (!!!).

It's not entirely immigrants, although that is part of it. It's just that rural areas have become more Republican, and cities for the most part more Democratic. Since more people in California live in cities than rural areas, it's trended towards the Democrats.

At least that's what it seems to be to me.

The Central Valley has a lot of Reagan Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

a few delusions some Republicans have about California:

California used to be a solidly Republican state

No it was not. It was a swing state that probably leaned GOP but it was far from solid. It may have voted Republican in every election from 1968-1988, but look at the results. In 1968 homestater Nixon only won it by 3 points and couldn't even break 50%, plus in 1960 he only won it by less than a point. Ford won it in 1976, but very narrowly and was under 50%. Reagan did very well in it, but it was his homestate and it was not significantly better than the national average. Bush I didn't do that terrible in it in 1988, but it was less than his national average and far from "solid Republican'.

California is far more Democratic today than it ever was Republican.

California could easily go back to being Republican

I've heard Republicans claim this could occur, with no reason why. This is kind of like saying South Carolina could go back to being so Democratic. There's a little thing called "demographic changes". The current California is way different than what it was in the 70s and 80s. If California had the same demographics as it did in those times, it would probably vote the same as it did then. But it doesn't.

California is trending Republican

By far the biggest delusion. The only reasoning I've heard for this is Arnold, Arnold and well, Arnold. Is it really a huge suprise that an insanely popular socially liberal movie star can win a special election against a scandal plagued Democrat connected to an unpopular administration and an utterly hated incubment? I can't think of any other way Republicans have gained in California.

But in a nutshell, Bob summed it up. As more Democratic-voting minorities came in, more conservative whites left. Same thing I covered with the "demographic changes above"

[The Duke]

The reason California could (will) trend to the center is that hispanics are trending to be a swing group.

The fastest growing counties in the state are GOP strongholds.

Arnold and McClintock, the two Republicans, got 63% of the vote in the recall.  This is nothing to scoff at and democrats scoff at their own peril.

Bush closed the gap against the Democrat this year, in spite of Nader not being on the ballot in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

William Weld got 74% in 1994. Scoffing at this would cause no problems.

What other Republican exists that could win 20% of the black vote and Contra Costa county like Arnold did? He is simply one of a kind, and no Republican who could win the national nomination could ever replicate that.

[Citizen James]

The reason California could (will) trend to the center is that hispanics are trending to be a swing group.

The fastest growing counties in the state are GOP strongholds.

Arnold and McClintock, the two Republicans, got 63% of the vote in the recall.  This is nothing to scoff at and democrats scoff at their own peril.

Bush closed the gap against the Democrat this year, in spite of Nader not being on the ballot in 2004.

That's kind of like pointing out that Clinton an Perot got 62% of the vote in '92, and claiming that it means Perot has a majority.

In some ways, Arnold is more socially liberal than his predessesor.  Davis was known for being very tough on crime (at least by California standards), and would almost never grant parole no matter what the parole board says.  Arnold is a lot more prone to following the board's advice.

By the standards of the national GOP Arnold is a clear-cut RINO, tollerated only because of his popularity and position in a major state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd bet anything that currently Arnold is the only Republican capable of winning statewide in California.

[AuH2O]

The Secretary of State is a Republican, so obviously BRTD should hold off on gambling.

California was never Republican, and the reason it's not is basically for two reasons, maybe four:

-Bay
-Area

And, I guess,

-Los
-Angeles

Without those two California basically IS Republican. Without one, it's a swing state. But they're there, so CA is Dem.

Honestly, I'd rather have Democrats running California. They'll destroy the economy completely-- they've already made good progress in that area-- and eventually the Democrats will have massive infighting. The Mexicans and latte liberals get along for now, as well as the blacks, but it won't last. Coalitions like that never do.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Secretary of State is a Republican, so obviously BRTD should hold off on gambling.

no.

http://dcpoliticalreport.com/CA.htm

the last one elected was a Democrat, but apparentely he's resigned. However the current acting Sec of State is a Democrat: http://www3.capwiz.com/y/bio/?id=152476&lvl=S&chamber=O

here's a listing of all of California's statewide offices: http://www3.capwiz.com/y/state/main/?state=CA&view=stateofficials#1

As you can all see, all Democrats except Arnold and a non-partisan office.

[AuH2O]

OK I think I was confused. But Republican Bill Jones WAS the Secretary of State previously, before running against Boxer in 2004 and losing. So he was the last ELECTED Sec. of State.

[The Duke]

Bill Jones (R) was elected in 1998, his term ended in 2002.

Kevin Shelley (D) was elected in 2002, but resigned over corruption scandals.

The acting SecState is Kathy Mitchell (D).  She will not be SecState for long.

Arnold has the right to appoint a replacement.  He has chosen Bruce McPherson (R).  He will be confirmed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A 52-40 race in SF? That's never happening again. Funny how Marin. San Mateo, and Contra Consta Counties went Republican then.