PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail.

[eric82oslo]

Not exactly the Reagan Revolution, but given the circumstances, very similar to when Bush was doing well. 

Long story short: The democrats are unpopular right now but things still can get better but also much worse.

Come on, with another Republican government shutdown in January and February, which still seems highly likely, GOP will be doomed as a brand for the rest of 2014, and the effects might be even more sinister for them than the short-term yet grave effects during the month of October. Let's see what polls are showing during March and April before we conclude that Christie will certainly beat Hillary in 2016. At least according to the first 72 polls of 2013 and late 2012, Hillary is still ahead of Christie nationally with an average margin of somewhere between 7% and 8%, which is almost identical to where she is in Christie's own home state, which could prove to be a crucial battleground in 2016 in the end (just like Arkansas possibly might be another one).

[eric82oslo]

Not exactly the Reagan Revolution, but given the circumstances, very similar to when Bush was doing well.  

Long story short: The democrats are unpopular right now but things still can get better but also much worse.

Come on, with another Republican government shutdown in January and February, which still seems highly likely, GOP will be doomed as a brand for the rest of 2014, and the effects might be even more sinister for them than the short-term yet grave effects during the month of October. Let's see what polls are showing during March and April before we conclude that Christie will certainly beat Hillary in 2016. At least according to the first 72 polls of 2013 and late 2012, Hillary is still ahead of Christie nationally with an average margin of somewhere between 7% and 8%, which is almost identical to where she is in Christie's own home state, which could prove to be a crucial battleground in 2016 in the end (just like Arkansas possibly might be another one).

Except now a shutdown based on the premise of repealing Obamacare may actually hold water with the voters. And really, after the last shutdown, I get the impression that the public doesn't think they're that big of a deal. I mean, shutdowns aren't great... no one likes them... but the political context has changed a bit.

I didn't realize that this was a new polling thread. I imagined being in the Ohio or Iowa thread. So you guys are quite right, this is for sure a dramatic poll for Hillary. From the two previous Pennsylvania polls, Hillary lead every Republican contender by at least 12% (though neither of them polled Christie at the time, oddly enough). Now that's changed to Christie leading Hillary by 4% in the state. That's a 16% shift (at least theoretically, though noone should expect Christie to ever have been down that deeply in the state, the New Jersey bordering state), which is one of the most dramatic shifts/turn arounds we've seen all year. This also means that Hillary's lead nationally, only from this one single poll, has been reduced from 7.5% to now "only" being 6.9% ahead of the generic/tailormade Republican (which in 17 of 26 cases happens to be Christie himself).

[eric82oslo]

People want a fat man as president lol

He'll probably look even worse by election night 2016 when he's possibly lost 120 kilos or so though. He would also make one of the shortest presidents ever elected in US history. Anyone knowing exactly how tall/short he is? In centimetres preferably.

[eric82oslo]

From the two previous Pennsylvania polls, Hillary lead every Republican contender by at least 12% (though neither of them polled Christie at the time, oddly enough). Now that's changed to Christie leading Hillary by 4% in the state. That's a 16% shift (at least theoretically, though noone should expect Christie to ever have been down that deeply in the state, the New Jersey bordering state), which is one of the most dramatic shifts/turn arounds we've seen all year.

The last PA poll to include Christie was by Quinnipiac in March, and had Clinton leading Christie by 5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170593.0

Thanks, that changes everything quite a lot! Suddenly Hillary is back in the lead again in Penn state, even against Christie, and if only by a tiny breadth of a hair.

[eric82oslo]

They could come home in some/most states, but not everywhere.  The map does slowly change over time, and we shouldn't expect everything to line up the same as 2012.  And of course, Clinton isn't Obama, so she'll inevitably be stronger in some states than he was, and weaker in others.  (Likewise, Christie isn't Romney.)

Christie will do lacklusterly in Utah, and likewise in other Mormon states like Arizona and Nevada.