WI-Marquette: A razor-close race

[publicunofficial]

Leads all opponents, but just barely (and below 50)

Walker - 47%
Burke - 45%

Walker - 47%
Vinehout - 44%

Walker - 48%
Barca - 42%


Walker's approval is 50/46, and Burke's favorability is only 17/14.

Marquette University was freakishly accurate in Wisconsin in 2012, predicting the results of the recall and the Baldwin/Thompson race extremely accurately.


Looks like another deceptively close race.

[windjammer]

, I thought he was heavily favored!

[Lief 🗽]

Good, looks like this race is definitely winnable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks close as I thought. Its still an irrelevant poll given 70% didn't even know who Burke was. We'll see how the race develops.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pure tossup.

[Maxwell]

, I thought he was heavily favored!

Walker has a low ceiling and a high floor, and that would make this race semi-contentious no matter who the Democrats run (hell, they could run freaking Barrett again and he'd still get probably 45% of the vote in the end).

[TNF]

Time to bust the union buster, once and for all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's have an equal chance in all these Midwestern governorships, like Oh or WI or MI the GOP probably get at least one.

[IceSpear]

Not surprising. The Democratic floor is the 46% that voted to recall Walker. Getting that extra 4% will be the tough part.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks close as I thought. Its still an irrelevant poll given 70% didn't even know who Burke was. We'll see how the race develops.

Exactly, when that 70% forms an opinion of her then Democrats will come home. The only reason Walker won the recall is because a lot of Moderate Obama Voters, as well as myself, saw no reason at all to recall him. It was basically just the far-left (Ed Schultz) screaming for it.

[LeBron]

The D's have an equal chance in all these Midwestern governorships, like Oh or WI or MI the GOP probably get at least one.

Yep, and at this moment even though Wisconsin is a lean D state while OH is a tossup/tilt R state, I've gotta say that Democrats have a better chance winning with Ed FitzGerald here in Ohio against Kasich than someone of much smaller name recognition like Mary Burke against the "Walker system."

Ed FitzGerald is doing a great job getting his name known already throughout all 88 OH counties while Burke is still known by an abominable 69% of Wisconsinites. FitzGerald also has a great track record of winning a lot of races while Walker does as well. Interestingly enough, both of them were executives of the largest counties in their state before going onto bigger and better things. That could be a sign of what to expect in these two gubernatorial races that Kasich has a better chance of falling than Walker does.

I won't count Burke out though. She's close in the polls there, but she needs to do a lot of campaigning to flip Wisconsin next year.

[Cryptic]

Still early, but very promising.  Walker's reelection is certainly not guaranteed. 

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The fact that Walker is only ahead by this much kind of surprises me, but I suspect he still wins in the end.

[Mr. Illini]

Just saw this today (sorry, I'm a month late). Surprised me quite a bit, actually. It is very promising for the Dems as Burke's name recognition is very low at this point and she is already doing so well.

[RedSLC]

, I thought he was heavily favored!

Walker has a low ceiling and a high floor, and that would make this race semi-contentious no matter who the Democrats run (hell, they could run freaking Barrett again and he'd still get probably 45% of the vote in the end).

Because he's a very polarizing politician. His positions the issues, particularly on labor unions have simultaneously endeared him to conservatives and made liberals infuriated with him. Thus, you have a lot of people in Wisconsin who are very likely to vote for him and very likely to vote against him, with relatively few swing voters.

Anyways, it will be interesting to see how this race shapes up.

[pbrower2a]

Not surprising. The Democratic floor is the 46% that voted to recall Walker. Getting that extra 4% will be the tough part.

The Democrats will be organizing voters instead of holding protests.  We shall see what is more effective in eleven months.