Official Michigan Megathread

[dmmidmi]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

I expected him to be leading by more. Seriously.

[Maxwell]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

Its obviously excellent news, of course, as the union-crushing hero Snyder will thrash the white liberal Schauer! Huzzah!

You're going to ignore now. Thanks.

[LeBron]

I think he could have pulled it off if he said "dominating!" instead lol. This is not good though especially when it's from Democratic leaning PPP. If Snyder leads by 4 then Quinnipiac or Harper will end up saying he's up by double digits, so despite the state's D-lean, Kasich seems likelier to fall now than Snyder is. Polls suggest that in Ohio and as Snyder is starting to recooperate, Kasich is losing his "moderate" appeal again.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Snyder were to lose in 2014, would he be allowed to seek the governorship again in 2018 and 2022 ?

Their term limits law is very STRICT and too tough for former governors to reclaim the office.

Pretty odd that John Engler was exempt from the rule and won 3 terms (1990, 1994, 1998).

[dmmidmi]

If Snyder were to lose in 2014, would he be allowed to seek the governorship again in 2018 and 2022 ?

Their term limits law is very STRICT and too tough for former governors to reclaim the office.

Pretty odd that John Engler was exempt from the rule and won 3 terms (1990, 1994, 1998).

He'd be allowed to, but I seriously doubt he'd even come close to winning. It's not typical for a Michigan Governor to come back and reclaim the Governorship/another office. Jim Blanchard threw his hat in the ring in the 2002 Democratic Gubernatorial primaries, and got steamrolled by Jenny Granholm. Soapy Williams lost the 1966 Senate race. And so on, and so forth.

Engler was exempt from the rule, because he was in office when the rule was established. And his opponent in '98 was Geoffrey Fieger.

[DrScholl]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

[Gass3268]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

If Democrats can get about 100,000 signatures against this bill in the 90 day period, the measure will be put to a vote. Probably on the same day as the midterm elections. 

[henster]

I think 2014 could be a Dem sweep in Michigan. If this makes the ballot along with unions PO'd about RTW, Dem turnout will be high and I can see Snyder and the legislature going down.

[dmmidmi]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

Not to mention that the Detroit bankruptcy has seemed to really help him recently.

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

I expected him to be leading by more. Seriously.

It's a Democrat pollster, after all, and one that overstates Dem numbers early in campaigns, so it probably doesn't mean much.

[pbrower2a]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

Democrats can say of the expansion of Medicaid -- too little and too late. They would have done the same thing, but without selling out women and workers.  Expansion of Medicaid  may keep Snyder from going down to as severe a defeat as looms for Scott in Florida or Corbett in Pennsylvania.

In 2010 the Democratic base voted for Democrats and others generally stayed home of accepted the GOP promises at face value. Except in ultra-safe districts one cannot win elections simply by bringing out the base. Electoral success in most places depends upon bringing out more than the base -- swing voters.

The Republican Party is essentially a coalition between plutocratic elites who demand all of the bounty of a prosperous society not necessary for an animal existence of people other than themselves and religious fundamentalists who are content with suffering in This World in return for Pie-in-the-Sky-When-You-Die. So suppose that you are a working-class or middle-class Roman Catholic who rejects the superstitions of Protestant fundamentalists and is closer to Pope Francis on economics than to Gatsby-like plutocrats on economics. What does the Hard Right have to offer but privation?

The recent PPP poll shows that Republicans have not gerrymandered their way into a solid majority in the State legislature. It's hard to win with this ten and a half months before the general election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf


State legislatures can do much to offend, but little to induce positive miracles.  Republicans would have to do voter suppression on an unimaginable scale to prevent loss of the State legislature or rely upon an economic meltdown as severe at the start as those of 1929-1933  or 2007-2009.
   

[dmmidmi]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

Democrats can say of the expansion of Medicaid -- too little and too late. They would have done the same thing, but without selling out women and workers.  Expansion of Medicaid  may keep Snyder from going down to as severe a defeat as looms for Scott in Florida or Corbett in Pennsylvania.

In 2010 the Democratic base voted for Democrats and others generally stayed home of accepted the GOP promises at face value. Except in ultra-safe districts one cannot win elections simply by bringing out the base. Electoral success in most places depends upon bringing out more than the base -- swing voters.

The Republican Party is essentially a coalition between plutocratic elites who demand all of the bounty of a prosperous society not necessary for an animal existence of people other than themselves and religious fundamentalists who are content with suffering in This World in return for Pie-in-the-Sky-When-You-Die. So suppose that you are a working-class or middle-class Roman Catholic who rejects the superstitions of Protestant fundamentalists and is closer to Pope Francis on economics than to Gatsby-like plutocrats on economics. What does the Hard Right have to offer but privation?

The recent PPP poll shows that Republicans have not gerrymandered their way into a solid majority in the State legislature. It's hard to win with this ten and a half months before the general election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf


State legislatures can do much to offend, but little to induce positive miracles.  Republicans would have to do voter suppression on an unimaginable scale to prevent loss of the State legislature or rely upon an economic meltdown as severe at the start as those of 1929-1933  or 2007-2009.
   

The argument that "Democrats would've done the same thing, but better" may be a bit too nuanced for suburban swing voters. They'll see Snyder making the decision they agree with, while appearing to be willing to work across the aisle. That's a far more powerful message than the insistence that Democrats would simply have done a better job of implementing the exchange and Medicaid expansion--one that'll resonate better with voters.

Control of the state House and Senate can definitely change hands in the next one or two election cycles--Republicans hold so many of those seats, that it's hard to envision in one election alone. However, the GOP state legislators are doing a helluva good job of alienating those who put them in office.

[dmmidmi]

Snyder is making efforts to strengthen his brand: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/gov_rick_snyder_open_to_talks.html

He's open to talking about things like the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act, but won't lead the discussion. Meaning, he may be in support of it if it's brought up by the Legislature (which won't happen).

[dmmidmi]

Looks like Snyder's getting a primary opponent: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_birt.html#incart_river_default

He was a birther, registered as a Democrat, but he "switched his party affiliation this week with the Secretary of State, saying his platform is too conservative for the Democratic ticket."

You think?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like Snyder's getting a primary opponent: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_birt.html#incart_river_default

He was a birther, registered as a Democrat, but he "switched his party affiliation this week with the Secretary of State, saying his platform is too conservative for the Democratic ticket."

You think?

Joke candidate.

[dmmidmi]

It's looking like the Snyder campaign will kick off, once again, on Super Bowl Sunday: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_whit.html#incart_river_default

The one-minute ad buy will cost just over $660,000, with the Metro Detroit market making up $400,000 of the total cost.

I have to wonder why Mark Schauer isn't planning on a huge ad buy on the same day (at least, it's not clear if he is or isn't).

[pbrower2a]

It's looking like the Snyder campaign will kick off, once again, on Super Bowl Sunday: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_whit.html#incart_river_default

The one-minute ad buy will cost just over $660,000, with the Metro Detroit market making up $400,000 of the total cost.

I have to wonder why Mark Schauer isn't planning on a huge ad buy on the same day (at least, it's not clear if he is or isn't).

Rick Snyder has more money, and more out-of-state money behind him. Mark Schauer must rely upon retail politics.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140113/OBITUARIES/301130076/Former-Michigan-Lt-Gov-Connie-Binsfeld-dies

I know it's not related to current Michigan politics, but I thought it was worth sharing.

[dmmidmi]

It's looking like the Snyder campaign will kick off, once again, on Super Bowl Sunday: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_whit.html#incart_river_default

The one-minute ad buy will cost just over $660,000, with the Metro Detroit market making up $400,000 of the total cost.

I have to wonder why Mark Schauer isn't planning on a huge ad buy on the same day (at least, it's not clear if he is or isn't).

Rick Snyder has more money, and more out-of-state money behind him. Mark Schauer must rely upon retail politics.

The last time retail politics really worked in Michigan was when John Engler was elected the first time. Yikes.

[windjammer]

Harper Polling: Land +8

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

We've already discussed that poll over in that board. General consensus (even among one of our most famous R hacks) is that it's crap.

[henster]

What's with all the junk polls out of Michigan is there not one decent pollster there considering how big the state is?

[dmmidmi]

In case you missed it: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/democrat_mark_schauer_seeks_pu.html

The comments section on mLive is hilarious.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

We've already discussed that poll over in that board. General consensus (even among one of our most famous R hacks) is that it's crap.

Considering your beloved PPP had Land ahead by 2 points a month ago, I'd say she's probably winning by something in between, maybe 5 points or so.

[RogueBeaver]

UAW asked Wittmer to reconsider, she said no.