What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.

1984:


1988:


1992:


1996:


2000:


I am not seeing this.  Or am I missing something?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key election is the 2001 Gubernatorial one... I'll make a map of it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When a state like Virginia goes for a liberal all the rest of us in the South should start to worry.

Why? Virginia isn't the hotbed of conservatism that it used to be.

[MHS2002]

I haven't lived in Virginia very long, so I'm not that familiar with its politics yet, but from talking with my friends (most of whom are Democrats) they don't see VA voting Democrat in the near future, certainly not 2004.

As far as Warner goes, apparently Gilmore was not a good governor, elected only because of his promise to remove the car tax; Warner's election was more of a response to Gilmore's failures. Again, most of this is second-hand info from friends, just thought it might be of some use.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Warner won in CD's: 3,4,5,8,9,11
Earley won in CD's: 1,2,6,7,10
---
The key trend was how well Warner did in the rural South of the state (CD's:4,5,9), mostly as a result of building up a strong political machine there.

[Gustaf]

Pennsylvania, of course. Then New Mexico, then Minnesota, then Wisconsin then Oregon then Iowa. Unless Kerry really mess things up he shouldn't lose anything more than that.

[ian]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.

1984:


1988:


1992:


1996:


2000:


I am not seeing this.  Or am I missing something?

I think that these maps are misleading.  1st of all, one must keep in mind while reviewing these maps that in 1984 and 1988, NO ONE voted for Mondale or Dukakis; the numbers of Democrats in the state is obviously low.  In '92 there were so many Democratically-won counties b/c there were a lot of people voting for Perot.  In '96 Clinton won re-election b/c he was superpopular; he won the thing by a landslide.  And the reason for 2000 going back to Republicanism was because it was that way all along, as one can see from the examples listed above.

[12th Doctor]

Ohio.  That's it.

[classical liberal]

Loudon County, VA went 85% for Regan.  It'll go 45% to Bush this time.  2000 was the last time that the GOP will win Fairifax County, VA.  Bush may win Virginia Beach in 04 but if so only with like 45%.  It's a national trend.  The GOP has lost a lot of ground in suburbs.  Gun control, immigration and the like.

[angus]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.

Loudon County, VA went 85% for Regan.  It'll go 45% to Bush this time.  2000 was the last time that the GOP will win Fairifax County, VA.  Bush may win Virginia Beach in 04 but if so only with like 45%.  It's a national trend.  The GOP has lost a lot of ground in suburbs.  Gun control, immigration and the like.

this is all very interesting

[classical liberal]

Suburbs are getting increasingly socially liberal as time passes.  Maybe because of Columbine, or more recently because of the kid who brought 11 home-made bombs and a shot gun to his high school in Omaha last month, but in any case its happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possible trend?

          SSSSSSS
          SSssssSS
          SSssUssSS
           SSssssSS
           SSSSSSS

U=urban core=Democrat
s=suburb=Trending Democrat (ex-GOP)
S=Outer suburb/"Exurb"=GOP
Real rural areas vary from state

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My map of the 2001 VA Gubernatorial election is about a third done (VA has all those fiddly independent cities etc)
It looks VERY different from the maps Beef posted

[classical liberal]

You're shading your map for %'s?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You're shading your map for %'s?

Yep

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Suburbs are getting increasingly socially liberal as time passes.  Maybe because of Columbine, or more recently because of the kid who brought 11 home-made bombs and a shot gun to his high school in Omaha last month, but in any case its happening.

I'm at a loss here.  Why would Columbine and students making bombs make people more socially liberal???  It might make them favor gun control, but that is *one issue*.  Favoring gun control does not make you "socially liberal."  If anything it would make people dig their heels in against violence in the media, and "godless secularism" in our culture.  

"Maybe if these boys had Jesus instead of Nietzche and Darwin this wouldn't have happened."

OK, that's a gross characterization, but I can't see the connection between Columbine and social liberalism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.

(VA presidential maps)

I am not seeing this.  Or am I missing something?

I think that these maps are misleading.  1st of all, one must keep in mind while reviewing these maps that in 1984 and 1988, NO ONE voted for Mondale or Dukakis; the numbers of Democrats in the state is obviously low.  In '92 there were so many Democratically-won counties b/c there were a lot of people voting for Perot.  In '96 Clinton won re-election b/c he was superpopular; he won the thing by a landslide.  And the reason for 2000 going back to Republicanism was because it was that way all along, as one can see from the examples listed above.

What you describe is the point I was trying to make.  VA from 84-00 showed no discernable trend away from favoring Republicans in Presidential elections.  If you adjust these results by the strenght of each candidate nationally, you would get pretty much identical maps from year to year.  Furthermore, there is zero evidence in those maps of the DC suburbs trending Democrat.

Now, just because they elect a Democrat Governor does not mean the state is trending Democrat, or becoming more liberal.  State politics and Presidential politics are two very different beasts.  Connecticut elected a Republican governor, but no one in their right mind would argue that CT is trending Republican at any point in the last 12 years.  South Dakota and Montana elected Democrat Senators, but you wouldn't say those states are trending Democrat, either.  In the case of Warner, it was the failure of his opponent, not a trend to the Left, that won him the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the case of Warner, it was the failure of his opponent, not a trend to the Left, that won him the election.

To say Warner won because of his oppenent isn't fair...
Inbetween his (narrow) defeat in the 1996 Senate race and the 2001 Gubernatorial election, Warner built up a machine in Southern Virginia by getting companies to invest there etc... and from what I hear this intensified after 2000 (Gore underperformed in Southern Virginia, BTW. His [apparent] stances on Coal and Tobacco hurt him a lot).
For a Democrat to win a Gubernatorial Election just after 9/11 (Virginia was attacked as well) was quite impressive.
Where he won it (see the map) was very impressive.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In the case of Warner, it was the failure of his opponent, not a trend to the Left, that won him the election.

To say Warner won because of his oppenent isn't fair...
Inbetween his (narrow) defeat in the 1996 Senate race and the 2001 Gubernatorial election, Warner built up a machine in Southern Virginia by getting companies to invest there etc...

Fine, Warner won on the stregth of his candidacy, and his political machine.  My point is still the same.  He won because because he was better than his opponent, not because of the Democrats' strength as a party, or shifting ideologies among the voters.  Tommy Thompson was our Republican governor for 14 years, at a time when our state was very liberal (Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore).  It would have been wrong to conclude in 1988 that Wisconsin was trending Republican just because they elected a popular Republican governor.  Likewise, it would be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending Democrat just because they elected a Democrat governor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is certainly a trend in Southern VA... like I said the Old conservative Democrats are dying off... and are being replaced by populist "Warner" Democrats.
I can't really comment on the VA burbs (I've not looked into them as much), but as VA is always "ahead of the curve" for the South Atlantic, similer patterns could well appear in NC soon.
---
VA isn't the conservative stronghold it was a few years back... whats weird is that a lot of people don't realise/can't accept this.

[classical liberal]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

True. I don't see Bush winning Fairfax County this year... His main hope of hanging on to VA is rural Northern Virginia, the Richmond Outer suburbs and Virginia Beach

[classical liberal]

Rural NOVA has like 5% of the state's population.  I really don't see Bush winning the same kind of margins he had in 2000 in the Hampton Roads area again this time.  He may squeak by with 50.01% or something but definately not the 55% he had in 2000 in some counties.

[angus]

I don't know as much about the upper south as you people do, but I don't know any serious handicapper who colors virginia anything other than whatever color they're using for Republicans.  I hope the GOP doesn't waste too much money in virginia as there are much more vulnerable pickings for the democrats such as Ohio and New Hampshire.