OH-PPP: Gov. Kasich (R) only tied with Fitzgerald (D)

[Tender Branson]

41% Kasich (R)
41% Fitzgerald (D)
  6% Earl (L)

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/398630049475096577

This is actually an improvement for Kasich since the last PPP poll, when Fitzgerald was up by 3.

[pbrower2a]

41% Kasich (R)
41% Fitzgerald (D)
  6% Earl (L)

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/398630049475096577

This is actually an improvement for Kasich since the last PPP poll, when Fitzgerald was up by 3.

This is still awful for Kasich. Considering that the floor for Democrats in Ohio is around 47%, a libertarian who wins 6% of the vote share is going to hurt the Republican. This is not Virginia early this month because the Republican is the incumbent.

[morgieb]

Still want to see non-PPP polls from Ohio. I believe them, but it feels like he's fallen too big lately.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like an exciting race already! Looks like the libertarian is taking up lots of the vote for being early on.

[free my dawg]

Still want to see non-PPP polls from Ohio. I believe them, but it feels like he's fallen too big lately.

I'm guessing the libertarian support is too high, which means that it probably tilts Kasich by a few.

[LeBron]

Still want to see non-PPP polls from Ohio. I believe them, but it feels like he's fallen too big lately.

I'm guessing the libertarian support is too high, which means that it probably tilts Kasich by a few.

Even though I don't really care for the Libertarians, I'm really hoping from FitzGerald's perspective that Charlie Earl gets Ron Paul's endorsement as Earl said he's hoping to get in a recent interview. If he can do that, he should have no problem threatening a good number of Kasich votes and should at least double what Matesz got (2.40%) in 2010.

And yeah, a third polling source is desperately needed here. I presume that's why Sabato and Cook are still keeping their predictions as they are for Kasich still from Quinnipiac. The large amount of undecided's in PPP's first poll probably resulted in them taking it less seriously, but this new poll with only 12% undecided should make them highly reconsider moving it to a tossup finally.

As it stands now, FitzGerald could actually be considered in a better position than Burke or Schauer currently is. He's in the driver's seat at this point and another big Kasich flaw like Senate Bill 5 or the 2013 state budget will make this a tossup/tilt D race.

[pbrower2a]

This could be trouble (Daily Kos):

 OH-Gov: It looks like the tentacles of the Suarez Corporation scandal wound up reaching higher than previously thought. On Wednesday, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that GOP Rep. Jim Renacci wrote a letter to fellow Republican Gov. John Kasich in an attempt to get him to intervene on behalf of Benjamin Suarez, whose direct marketing firm was being targeted by local prosecutors in California. Suarez also reached out to Kasich directly, and his office claimed that the requests died there, with Suarez being told "we can't help you."

Well, someone on John Kasich's staff should have done a little more research before issuing that blanket denial, because a follow-up report on Thursday busted that claim completely. It turns out that Kasich's chief counsel sent a letter to California Attorney General Kamala Harris, asking her to "determine whether anything improper has occurred" in the Napa County DA's investigation of Suarez Corp. (Harris's response was a polite version of GTFO.)

Suarez, of course, had donated to Kasich's campaign (over $22,000), in addition to the donations he illegally smurfed through his company's employees to Renacci and state Treasurer Josh Mandel. (Mandel also wrote letters on Suarez's behalf.) All three have since either returned the contributions or donated them to charity, and none of these officials are directly implicated in the structuring scheme for which Benjamin Suarez and his company are currently being prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney's office.

But their willingness to help a shady character with such a shady undertaking—even a Kasich spokesman admitted that Suarez's requests were "inappropriate, and frankly, a little weird"—don't make them look especially good. And Kasich's denial that he'd ever helped Suarez was just boneheadedly stupid.

P.S. On Thursday night, PPP teased a new poll it had conducted for the Ohio Democratic Party, saying that Kasich and Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald are tied at 41 apiece (with 6 percent for Libertarian Charlie Earl), while Democratic state Rep. Connie Pillich leads Mandel 47-43 in the treasurer's race. Tom Jensen tweeted that the OH Dems would release full results on Friday, but it looks like those plans have been delayed.

[Mr. Morden]

41% Kasich (R)
41% Fitzgerald (D)
  6% Earl (L)

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/398630049475096577

This is actually an improvement for Kasich since the last PPP poll, when Fitzgerald was up by 3.

If it's an improvement, then why did you say "only" tied in the thread title?

[LeBron]

The likely match-up scenarios by PPP for Governor and Treasurer:
Governor John Kasich (R) - 41%
Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald (D) - 41%
Charlie Earl (L) - 6%

John Kasich's Approval Rating: 37% Approve, 42% Disapprove


Among Women: 35% Approve, 41% Disapprove
Among Men: 39% Approve, 43% Disapprove


Among Women:
37% will vote for John Kasich
42% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among Men:
44% will vote for John Kasich
39% will vote for Ed FitzGerald




And get this - Among Kasich's own party, the Republicans, his approval ratings are:
55% Approve, 26% Disapprove (Most incumbent Governor's should have at least a 75% approval from their own party to win re-election/avoid a primary)

Among Democrats, Kasich's approval rating is horrible as expected:
16% Approve, 59% Disapprove


Among Republicans:
68% will vote for John Kasich
15% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among Democrats:
14% will vote for John Kasich
72% will vote for Ed FitzGerald



Among Whites - 39% Approve, 42% Disapprove of Kasich
Among African Americans - 17% Approve, 49% Disapprove of Kasich


Among Whites:
44% will vote for John Kasich
37% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among African Americans:
15% will vote for John Kasich
69% will vote for Ed FitzGerald



Among Age Groups
18 to 29 - 26% Approve of Kasich, 51% Disapprove
30 to 45 - 33% Approve of Kasich, 48% Disapprove
46 to 65 - 38% Approve of Kasich, 41% Disapprove
65 & Older - 44% Approve of Kasich, 35% Disapprove


18 to 29:
37% will vote for John Kasich
40% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

30 to 45:
38% will vote for John Kasich
40% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

46 to 65:
39% will vote for John Kasich
43% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

65 & Older:
46% will vote for John Kasich
39% will vote for Ed FitzGerald




In the State Treasurer election between incumbent Josh Mandel (R) and State Rep. Connie Pillich (D):
State Treasurer Josh Mandel - 43%
State Rep. Connie Pillich - 47%


Among Women:
38% will vote for Josh Mandel
50% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among Men:
48% will vote for Josh Mandel
45% will vote for Connie Pillich


Among Democrats:
12% will vote for Josh Mandel
85% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among Republicans:
72% will vote for Josh Mandel
18% will vote for Connie Pillich


Among Whites:
46% will vote for Josh Mandel
43% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among African Americans:
18% will vote for Josh Mandel
79% will vote for Connie Pillich



18 to 29:
37% will vote for Josh Mandel
57% will vote for Connie Pillich

30 to 45:
53% will vote for Josh Mandel
38% will vote for Connie Pillich

46 to 65:
42% will vote for Josh Mandel
49% will vote for Connie Pillich

65 & Older:
41% will vote for Josh Mandel
48% will vote for Connie Pillich


There's a +/- 4% margin of error with 595 voters in Ohio who were polled.

52% of those polled are women while 48% are men.
38% of those polled are Democrats, 36% are Republicans, and 25% are Independents/Members of another party
82% of those polled are white, 12% are African Americans, and 6% are Other
12% of those polled are 18-29, 18% are 30-45, 47% are 46-65, and 23% are 65 & older

[pbrower2a]

An incumbent Governor should normally have a clear advantage in early polling over a local politician not well known outside his area. Kasich does not. He's probably going down to defeat.