OH-PPP: Gov. Kasich (R) only tied with Fitzgerald (D)

[LeBron]

Still want to see non-PPP polls from Ohio. I believe them, but it feels like he's fallen too big lately.

I'm guessing the libertarian support is too high, which means that it probably tilts Kasich by a few.

Even though I don't really care for the Libertarians, I'm really hoping from FitzGerald's perspective that Charlie Earl gets Ron Paul's endorsement as Earl said he's hoping to get in a recent interview. If he can do that, he should have no problem threatening a good number of Kasich votes and should at least double what Matesz got (2.40%) in 2010.

And yeah, a third polling source is desperately needed here. I presume that's why Sabato and Cook are still keeping their predictions as they are for Kasich still from Quinnipiac. The large amount of undecided's in PPP's first poll probably resulted in them taking it less seriously, but this new poll with only 12% undecided should make them highly reconsider moving it to a tossup finally.

As it stands now, FitzGerald could actually be considered in a better position than Burke or Schauer currently is. He's in the driver's seat at this point and another big Kasich flaw like Senate Bill 5 or the 2013 state budget will make this a tossup/tilt D race.

[LeBron]

The likely match-up scenarios by PPP for Governor and Treasurer:
Governor John Kasich (R) - 41%
Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald (D) - 41%
Charlie Earl (L) - 6%

John Kasich's Approval Rating: 37% Approve, 42% Disapprove


Among Women: 35% Approve, 41% Disapprove
Among Men: 39% Approve, 43% Disapprove


Among Women:
37% will vote for John Kasich
42% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among Men:
44% will vote for John Kasich
39% will vote for Ed FitzGerald




And get this - Among Kasich's own party, the Republicans, his approval ratings are:
55% Approve, 26% Disapprove (Most incumbent Governor's should have at least a 75% approval from their own party to win re-election/avoid a primary)

Among Democrats, Kasich's approval rating is horrible as expected:
16% Approve, 59% Disapprove


Among Republicans:
68% will vote for John Kasich
15% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among Democrats:
14% will vote for John Kasich
72% will vote for Ed FitzGerald



Among Whites - 39% Approve, 42% Disapprove of Kasich
Among African Americans - 17% Approve, 49% Disapprove of Kasich


Among Whites:
44% will vote for John Kasich
37% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

Among African Americans:
15% will vote for John Kasich
69% will vote for Ed FitzGerald



Among Age Groups
18 to 29 - 26% Approve of Kasich, 51% Disapprove
30 to 45 - 33% Approve of Kasich, 48% Disapprove
46 to 65 - 38% Approve of Kasich, 41% Disapprove
65 & Older - 44% Approve of Kasich, 35% Disapprove


18 to 29:
37% will vote for John Kasich
40% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

30 to 45:
38% will vote for John Kasich
40% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

46 to 65:
39% will vote for John Kasich
43% will vote for Ed FitzGerald

65 & Older:
46% will vote for John Kasich
39% will vote for Ed FitzGerald




In the State Treasurer election between incumbent Josh Mandel (R) and State Rep. Connie Pillich (D):
State Treasurer Josh Mandel - 43%
State Rep. Connie Pillich - 47%


Among Women:
38% will vote for Josh Mandel
50% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among Men:
48% will vote for Josh Mandel
45% will vote for Connie Pillich


Among Democrats:
12% will vote for Josh Mandel
85% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among Republicans:
72% will vote for Josh Mandel
18% will vote for Connie Pillich


Among Whites:
46% will vote for Josh Mandel
43% will vote for Connie Pillich

Among African Americans:
18% will vote for Josh Mandel
79% will vote for Connie Pillich



18 to 29:
37% will vote for Josh Mandel
57% will vote for Connie Pillich

30 to 45:
53% will vote for Josh Mandel
38% will vote for Connie Pillich

46 to 65:
42% will vote for Josh Mandel
49% will vote for Connie Pillich

65 & Older:
41% will vote for Josh Mandel
48% will vote for Connie Pillich


There's a +/- 4% margin of error with 595 voters in Ohio who were polled.

52% of those polled are women while 48% are men.
38% of those polled are Democrats, 36% are Republicans, and 25% are Independents/Members of another party
82% of those polled are white, 12% are African Americans, and 6% are Other
12% of those polled are 18-29, 18% are 30-45, 47% are 46-65, and 23% are 65 & older