The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread

[Miles]

Cooch is sweeping Appalachia

[Miles]

Almost all of Buchanan Couty is in and T-Mac is losing 66-32, worse than Obama

[Miles]

RRH says Obenshain is running behind their benchmarks.

[Miles]

Dean Young starts up 51-49 with 21% in.

[Miles]

Byrne up with 51%. Lets hope that holds.

[Miles]

Obenshain down to 50.8%.

[Miles]

The swing map for the southwest:

[Miles]

Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.

Yeah, I'll do that next.

[Miles]

I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

[Miles]

CD2 was mirror image of CD10; McAuliffe won by about 2K votes:

[Miles]

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

[Miles]

Virginia Beach/Hampton. I would have included Suffolk, but it had too many precinct shape changes that I didn't want to deal with.

[Miles]

Its a few days old, but here's a Youtube video of Wasserman explaining the AG race.

[Miles]

Black voters turned out in disproportionately high numbers while hispanic/young turnout was relatively low; the black vote likely saved McAuliffe:

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[Miles]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 36s
BREAKING: #ShockoeSlipUp gives Herring (D) #VAAG lead by 99 votes.>> MT @JoeStGeorge Herring total from 501 is 983.

[Miles]

If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Bill Bolling if he hasn't severed all ties with the party by that point. Deeds also won the nomination for governor after losing the attorney general race by a similar margin as Obenshain.

Bolling would likely have a tough time at the convention. Allen is probably done with politics.

A name being floated around over at RedRacingHorses, who I think actually may be good, is Rigell.

[Miles]

I have the utmost confidence the RPV will use a primary for the nomination process in 2017. I don't know about next year for the Senate race against Warner, but I am confident they will after that. I'm highly certain they have learned from the Jackson situation.

I think so too, but maybe not if this is the Republicans' conclusion from last week:

[Miles]

JohnnyLongtorso, who used to post here and is one of my all-time favorites, did a good diary over at DKE on the Democrat's failure to make tangible gains in the House of Delegates.

[Miles]

Tulsa by precinct:

[Miles]

Miles, what will you say about Arkansas SD-21 election? I know that Republican nominee is very much a "tea party man" (big minus from my personal view, but, probably, not too much from NE Arkansas people view) and that, contrary to the norm, more people voted in Republican primary then in Democratic. What about Democratic nominee (Rockwell)? A Democrat must be of rather conservative type (IMHO) to have a chance there.

Wow, the runoff was super close. Rockwell won by 24 votes and Cooper won by 67 votes.

Rockwell strikes me as a type of business-oriented Democrat that could win here.

This is one of those areas that hasn't had Republican local representation since Reconstruction...I hate to see these seats flip.

[Miles]

The caucuses for the special election in Lt Gov-elect Ralph Northam's 6th district will be on Nov 16 for the Democrats and Nov 21 for the Republicans. Any voter in the district will be allowed to vote in either - or both!

Democrats have three candidates

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I personally like McClellan the most.

[Miles]

Turnout for the Gov. race 2009 vs. 2013

[Miles]

Miles!  I almost didn't recognize you.  When did you become a Republican?!

Could you tell it was me by my signature?

Its a Forum Community thing. Its not permanent; some of us are showing solidarity with the Mods.

[Miles]

Hey Miles, I have one more request for you.  In light of the upcoming special elections, could you do McAuliffe/Cuccinelli numbers for SD-06 (Northam), SD-33 (Herring) and just in case, SD-26 (Obenshain)?

McAuliffe-Cuccinelli-Sarvis

SD06: 52-41-7
SD26: 35-59-6
SD33: 55-39-6

Calculations.

[Miles]

The turnout maps looks a lot like the swing map to me:



I know I happened to use red for more votes, but still.