The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:54:02 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27
Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 47040 times)
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #575 on: November 09, 2013, 10:49:27 AM »

I think these maps show the effect of minority turnout going down. The reason Cuccinelli didn't lose by 7-8 points is because a key part of the Obama coalition stayed home.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #576 on: November 09, 2013, 08:47:20 PM »

The vboe website has the Obenshain margin down to 59 votes.  The blogger notlarrysabato has the margin at 15 votes.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #577 on: November 09, 2013, 11:01:29 PM »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #578 on: November 09, 2013, 11:27:40 PM »

Tie! Tie!
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #579 on: November 10, 2013, 02:09:28 AM »

Wow! This is amazing. We won't know who will be Virginia's Attorney General for awhile.
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #580 on: November 10, 2013, 03:13:28 AM »

Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #581 on: November 10, 2013, 04:25:28 AM »

Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.

This


Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #582 on: November 10, 2013, 11:11:36 AM »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.
Logged
Flake
JacobTiver
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #583 on: November 10, 2013, 11:15:02 AM »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #584 on: November 10, 2013, 11:57:54 AM »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.

Well, you're not old enough to remember, but once upon a time there was this Presidential race between a man made of wood and a man with no brain and it came down to the state of Florida and mythical things called "hanging chads" and "butterfly ballots".... that was confusing.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #585 on: November 10, 2013, 12:19:38 PM »

What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?



Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #586 on: November 10, 2013, 12:22:21 PM »

What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?



Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?

It goes to the general assembly, so a tie would go to the Rs. 
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #587 on: November 10, 2013, 03:30:49 PM »

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:




Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs. 
The wealthiest suburbs are one place where there was a bit of a flowback in 2012, so "duh". (Yes, including in Arlington and Loudoun. Not in Fairfax taken as a whole but that's probably the Republican collapse among new minorities. I'm sure it happened in the northwest of the county.)
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #588 on: November 10, 2013, 07:27:58 PM »

Its a few days old, but here's a Youtube video of Wasserman explaining the AG race.
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,094
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #589 on: November 10, 2013, 10:02:39 PM »

The lead is cut to 17.

What should I sacrifice for a Herring win?
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #590 on: November 10, 2013, 10:23:31 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2013, 10:25:28 PM by cinyc »


Nothing.  Barring some other unknown error, Herring should pull ahead after the Fairfax County provisionals are counted on Tuesday.  It's hard to see them going for Obenshain.

The actual numbers, from the Virginia Board of Elections' website:

Obenshain   1,103,443   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,426   49.88%   
Write-in   5,152   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,212,021   

Obenshain +17
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #591 on: November 10, 2013, 10:30:28 PM »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #592 on: November 10, 2013, 10:33:57 PM »

The current lead is .000769%

If the report of the Richmond precinct is true then Herring will have 100 vote lead before Fairfax provisionals, if not, then it's still pretty grey as provisionals can be erratic.  And of course, there could still be other errors out there and a recount is inevitable.
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #593 on: November 10, 2013, 10:51:42 PM »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Probably nothing.  People who write in candidates are dumb.  Tongue   
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,249


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #594 on: November 10, 2013, 10:57:13 PM »

My favorite tied election procedure, at least in the United States, is New Mexico's poker game method.

And yeah, you shouldn't sacrifice anything for a Herring win that is very probably in the pipeline unless something notably changes in the recount (which, granted, is itself quite possible).
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #595 on: November 10, 2013, 10:59:34 PM »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Some of those of those write-ins probably were for Obenshain or Herring, and probably misspelled too.  I don't think that they get counted for the candidate.  
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #596 on: November 11, 2013, 04:53:10 AM »

In New Jersey: The GOP will pick up an Assembly seat in the southernmost LD01. They currently lead for a second seat in Bergen County's LD38 (Paramus), but provisional ballots in Dem-friendly towns may erase that pickup still. In Atlantic County's LD02 (Atlantic City), Republicans appear to have lost an Assembly seat in an upset.

There's was no partisan change in the NJ State Senate, which was a bit of a disappointment for the GOP. Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. fended off a leadership challenge from Sen. Kevin O'Toole by a 10 to 6 caucus vote; Christie was supposedly siding with O'Toole.
Logged
Flake
JacobTiver
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #597 on: November 11, 2013, 12:23:08 PM »

Imagine how bad the Virginia Republican Party would had lost if Cuccinelli hadn't purged the voting rights of 40,000.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #598 on: November 11, 2013, 01:22:09 PM »

Black voters turned out in disproportionately high numbers while hispanic/young turnout was relatively low; the black vote likely saved McAuliffe:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #599 on: November 11, 2013, 01:40:54 PM »

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 36s
BREAKING: #ShockoeSlipUp gives Herring (D) #VAAG lead by 99 votes.>> MT @JoeStGeorge Herring total from 501 is 983.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.