Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd keep my answer the same as a few months ago. Christie is the most likely nominee but also unlikely to be the nominee. Maybe his chances are 1 in 5? He seems one of the more likely people to run, would have a ton of Wall St money and the Karl Rove machine behind him. He also has looks good in an early state in NH but still weaker than the CW of this board. He's not a lock to win NH by any stretch, just a good bet to be strong there, more like McCain/Romney/Giuliani 2008 than Romney 2012 (who would consistently poll high 30s or 40s vs. Christie's 20).

But, not unlike 2012, there is a high likelihood of the nominee being someone who 3 years out looks unlikely or not even all that likely to run right now, whether it's someone like Ryan or Bush or even quieter like Pence. The field in 2016 will probably not be filled with as bad candidates as 2012 was.

People are wrong to assume it's a sure thing Cruz runs. I think it's much more likely he skips the race than most folks realize.

Walker is 50/50 to lose re-election.