Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?

[Likely Voter]

The GOP nomination is more up in the air than any prez nomination in the modern era. But I will go with Scott Walker. He is governor, evangelical, he gets tea party cred for taking on the unions and yet still has mainstream appeal within the GOP (he was against the shut down for example).

[Likely Voter]

I voted Christie due to a split conservative vote.

While I voted for Walker, the splitting of the conservative vote is how Christie could win. However, this assumes Christie run unopposed from the the moderate/establishment wing. What if Bush, Kasich, Thune, Huntsman and/or someone else splits the vote with him? And even people like Walker and Jindal can appeal to the moderates.