Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?
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  Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?
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Question: Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?
#1
Bolton
 
#2
Bush
 
#3
Carson
 
#4
Christie
 
#5
Cruz
 
#6
Huntsman
 
#7
Jindal
 
#8
Kasich
 
#9
Peter King
 
#10
Paul
 
#11
Perry
 
#12
Rubio
 
#13
Ryan
 
#14
Santorum
 
#15
Walker
 
#16
NOTA
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?  (Read 3230 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: November 01, 2013, 07:02:24 PM »

?

Time to do this again.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2013, 08:00:48 PM »

Ryan
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morgieb
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2013, 08:33:28 PM »

Gonna be edgy and say which ever Cheesman runs. Rubio's a lightweight, Christie's burning too many bridges with the party, and I don't see them nominating a really nutty candidate. Ryan and Walker seem like the best compromise candidates. At this stage, I lean towards Ryan, as his polling seems stronger.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2013, 08:35:20 PM »

Christie and Walker will duke it out, and I think Christie will edge him out.
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Lupo
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2013, 08:53:28 PM »

Christie and Walker will duke it out, and I think Christie will edge him out.

Christie and Walker in the end.  I'd want Christie but Walker would pull it out.  Walker chooses Christie as runningmate.
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Cobbler
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2013, 09:23:59 PM »

Christie.

For some reason, I get the feeling that Walker is incredibly overhyped. He isn't particularly charismatic, and I don't think he'll really stand out to people outside of the establishment conservatives.
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Brewer
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2013, 10:05:52 PM »

Rand Paul
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2013, 11:23:04 PM »


^^^
I hope Rand Paul wins the nomination but I actually think it's likely (from a perspective as of now).
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Mordecai
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2013, 06:24:43 AM »

Christie or Ryan.

I think Cruz blew his chance with the shutdown and pissing off the GOP establishment.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2013, 10:05:23 AM »

Walker or Cruz.
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Blue3
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2013, 11:56:09 AM »

Rubio as the compromise candidate.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2013, 12:51:28 PM »

Jeb Bush, or Kelly Ayotte
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2013, 02:08:35 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2013, 11:39:57 AM by A dog on every car, a car in every elevator »

I'd keep my answer the same as a few months ago. Christie is the most likely nominee but also unlikely to be the nominee. Maybe his chances are 1 in 5? He seems one of the more likely people to run, would have a ton of Wall St money and the Karl Rove machine behind him. He also has looks good in an early state in NH but still weaker than the CW of this board. He's not a lock to win NH by any stretch, just a good bet to be strong there, more like McCain/Romney/Giuliani 2008 than Romney 2012 (who would consistently poll high 30s or 40s vs. Christie's 20).

But, not unlike 2012, there is a high likelihood of the nominee being someone who 3 years out looks unlikely or not even all that likely to run right now, whether it's someone like Ryan or Bush or even quieter like Pence. The field in 2016 will probably not be filled with as bad candidates as 2012 was.

People are wrong to assume it's a sure thing Cruz runs. I think it's much more likely he skips the race than most folks realize.

Walker is 50/50 to lose re-election.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2013, 02:13:26 PM »

Right now, I'm going to say Christie.  Even with his unpopularity among the base, the amount of possible challengers that appeal to the base (Rubio, Walker, Ryan, Jindal, Paul, Cruz, etc) will probably divide the anti-Christie vote enough that he slips through and wins the primary. 

This view could easily change though as we get closer. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2013, 02:18:40 PM »

The GOP nomination is more up in the air than any prez nomination in the modern era. But I will go with Scott Walker. He is governor, evangelical, he gets tea party cred for taking on the unions and yet still has mainstream appeal within the GOP (he was against the shut down for example).
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20RP12
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2013, 05:50:21 PM »

Christie obviously.
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opebo
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2013, 05:58:47 PM »

Cruz.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2013, 06:14:52 PM »

I voted Paul, but that's a shot in the dark. I'm guessing that Christie or anyone to the left of him goes down in flames under the relentless TeaParty and other far-right screaming. Meanwhile, candidates farther right that Paul either collapse or demonstrate themselves so unelectable in the general that they lose support. Paul has demonstrated a knack for saying the right populist/libertarian things at right time; using that maybe he catches a wave of popular support and rides it to victory.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2013, 09:58:41 PM »

Christie, followed by Ryan, Walker, and Paul.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2013, 10:00:58 PM »

Which early states does Christie win?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2013, 10:16:28 PM »

Which early states does Christie win?
NH, followed by Florida. Should be enough, unless Ryan or Paul wins Iowa, which could be followed with a NH upset.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2013, 10:20:57 PM »


Florida isn't an early state anymore.  They moved back to Super Tuesday.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2013, 10:22:47 PM »

So I guess you're assuming Rubio doesn't run or loses FL. Easiest way for a Cheeseman to KO Christie quickly is by winning IA and Rand blocking Christie in NH. I do think Ryan/Walker could take a chunk of Christie's establishment support, though fatman keeps the moderates.
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Flake
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2013, 10:27:40 PM »


Florida isn't an early state anymore.  They moved back to Super Tuesday.


This was the 3,333,333rd post.
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morgieb
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2013, 07:19:07 AM »

Which early states does Christie win?
Favourite in New Hampshire.
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