Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Christie due to a split conservative vote. However, I have actually started to rate Paul's chances higher than I have in the past due to his attempts at pragmatism and Cruz's posturing.  If he can peel off enough moderates from Christie, I think he could be the "true conservative" who breaks out of the pack.

Walker is the dark horse, but I can't help but think that the triumverate of Christie/Paul/Cruz sucks all of the oxygen out of the room.

[Likely Voter]

I voted Christie due to a split conservative vote.

While I voted for Walker, the splitting of the conservative vote is how Christie could win. However, this assumes Christie run unopposed from the the moderate/establishment wing. What if Bush, Kasich, Thune, Huntsman and/or someone else splits the vote with him? And even people like Walker and Jindal can appeal to the moderates.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Christie due to a split conservative vote.

While I voted for Walker, the splitting of the conservative vote is how Christie could win. However, this assumes Christie run unopposed from the the moderate/establishment wing. What if Bush, Kasich, Thune, Huntsman and/or someone else splits the vote with him? And even people like Walker and Jindal can appeal to the moderates.

With the possible exception of Kasich, I don't think Bush, Thune, or Huntsman will run. Also, in this scenario, Bush strikes me as the only one who could effectively compete with Christie in the moderate wing of the party. The rest I just see getting lost in the shuffle, which on that same note is what I think will happen with Walker and Jindal. Albeit I could see possibly a small opening for Walker.