Census Population Estimates 2020-29
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  Census Population Estimates 2020-29
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Author Topic: Census Population Estimates 2020-29  (Read 19600 times)
🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
Purple Unicorn
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« Reply #250 on: December 27, 2023, 02:25:25 PM »

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

How much of that increase from 1 Jul 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 do you expect from immigration? In 2023 the estimate was 0.5 million from natural change and 1.1 million from immigration.

Muon,

I expect 3.7 million births and 3.05 million deaths in between this next Census Bureau year.

That's +0.65 million in natural change + maybe 1.2 to 1.4 million in legal immigration surplus.

(Illegal immigrants crossing the Mexico border are NOT estimated by the Census Bureau in their annual estimates.)

The 2021 faq about counting foreign-born persons included this:

Quote
Do the data on the foreign born collected by the Census Bureau include unauthorized immigrants?

Yes. The U.S. Census Bureau collects data from all foreign born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status. Thus, unauthorized migrants are implicitly included in the Census Bureau estimates of the total foreign-born population.

That seems to say that illegal immigrants (unauthorized migrants to the CB) are included in their estimates.

I think these surveys are not the same as the annual estimates for the national and state data.

The FAQ says that unauthorized migrants are asked to participate in the census and surveys, but the annual population estimates are not a survey. I think the FAQ refers only to the annual ACS (American community survey) and the survey of the foreign born.

It would then depend if they use ACS and foreign-born surveys for their annual population estimates, which I don't know. I know that they use Green Card applications and tax data to estimate immigration and emigration.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #251 on: January 03, 2024, 08:06:24 PM »

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #252 on: January 04, 2024, 08:07:28 PM »

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

"The nation gained more than 1.6 million people this past year, growing by 0.5% to 334,914,895."

"Texas experienced the largest numeric change in the nation, adding 473,453 people, followed by Florida, which added 365,205 residents."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

Smiley

Doing some quick math, if population continued to grow by 0.5% for the next 6 years, by the 2030 Census the US population would be 343.37 million.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #253 on: January 16, 2024, 11:46:58 AM »

I have hope that Rhode Island will defy expectations for a third time. Just wait and see.
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