NJ: LoBiondo, Runyan get serious challengers

[publicunofficial]

Bill Hughes Jr., the son of former Rep. Bill Hughes, has announced that he will run against Frank LoBiondo in 2014. State Sen. Jeff Van Drew was also considering a run against LoBiondo, though he would have to resign in order to run.

I don't think LoBiondo will loose, but he hasn't had a serious race in a long while and his fundraising hasn't been high so retirement is clearly a possibility.


Jon Runyan also has a likely opponent in Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, who is reportedly in talks with the DCCC. Freeholder is New Jersey's equivalent of County Commissioner, and Burlington County is 60% of the population of NJ-03.


Both Runyan and LoBiondo are in districts Obama won in 2012.

[Miles]

I'm no authority on NJ politics, but I agree. LoBiondo should be good but I could see Runyan losing if the House GOP still has high enough disapprovals this time next year.

[morgieb]

LoBiondo's seat won't be competitive until he retires (although when he does, his seat will be guaranteed to go Democratic), but competition is good.

Runyan is probably in danger if a wave happens.

[LeBron]

Sabato must really hate PPP polling because PPP shows LoBiondo has a higher 44% favorable to Runyan's 39% favorable and LoBiondo has a 2 point lead over a generic Democrat as opposed to Runyan who trails by 2 points by a generic Democrat. Yet, Sabato lists Frank LoBiondo's seat as "Likely R" and Jon Runyan's as "Safe R." I'm not necessarily inclined to disagree with the LoBiondo rating of the seat by Sabato, but if anything, NJ-3 is lean R and is more vulnerable than it is safe to NJ-2. It would be better if the Democrats forgot about LoBiondo and went after NJ incumbents who are in trouble like Reps. Frelinghuysen and Lance who have approvals in their 30's.

Plus, it's worth noting LoBiondo and Runyan both won their seats in the 2 main recent GOP waves of 1994 (LoBiondo) and 2010 (Runyan). If LoBiondo can survive by over 20 points in 2006 and 2008 in an Obama district, he should easily be safe and only a little competitive from a good Democrat. On the other hand, Runyan only beat John Alder by 1 point in a GOP year and since 2012 was about split/lean D, he may have survived then, but he wouldn't be able to in a Democratic wave.

[hurricanehink]

For what it's worth, LoBiondo won by the lowest margin in his career in 2012. He lost in 1992 to, you guessed it, Bill Hughes Sr.! LiBiondo then won in 1994 and won comfortably each time, but 2012 he only won 57.7% to 40.3%.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSlRG1TfDMs - he ran on term limits, and this is his 10th term now. It's time for him to go!

[minionofmidas]

For what it's worth, LoBiondo won by the lowest margin in his career in 2012, but 2012 he only won 57.7% to 40.3%.

That's a pretty impressive career low for a naturally marginal seat.

[Keystone Phil]

Not sure where this idea that Van Drew has to resign his State Senate seat to run is coming from. Anyway, Van Drew flirts with running for higher office then doesn't.

And I think we'll be talking about NJ 2 next year for other reasons, too.

[hopper]

Sabato must really hate PPP polling because PPP shows LoBiondo has a higher 44% favorable to Runyan's 39% favorable and LoBiondo has a 2 point lead over a generic Democrat as opposed to Runyan who trails by 2 points by a generic Democrat. Yet, Sabato lists Frank LoBiondo's seat as "Likely R" and Jon Runyan's as "Safe R." I'm not necessarily inclined to disagree with the LoBiondo rating of the seat by Sabato, but if anything, NJ-3 is lean R and is more vulnerable than it is safe to NJ-2. It would be better if the Democrats forgot about LoBiondo and went after NJ incumbents who are in trouble like Reps. Frelinghuysen and Lance who have approvals in their 30's.

Plus, it's worth noting LoBiondo and Runyan both won their seats in the 2 main recent GOP waves of 1994 (LoBiondo) and 2010 (Runyan). If LoBiondo can survive by over 20 points in 2006 and 2008 in an Obama district, he should easily be safe and only a little competitive from a good Democrat. On the other hand, Runyan only beat John Alder by 1 point in a GOP year and since 2012 was about split/lean D, he may have survived then, but he wouldn't be able to in a Democratic wave.

Yeah but Lance and Frelinghuysen are in R+6 districts it would be hard for a Dem to take any one of them out. Maybe in the future the Dems could target those 2 districts(NJ-07 and  NJ-11) because NJ's population growth is moving to the Northeast of the state which is mostly Dem.

[hopper]

For what it's worth, LoBiondo won by the lowest margin in his career in 2012. He lost in 1992 to, you guessed it, Bill Hughes Sr.! LiBiondo then won in 1994 and won comfortably each time, but 2012 he only won 57.7% to 40.3%.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSlRG1TfDMs - he ran on term limits, and this is his 10th term now. It's time for him to go!

Term limits were a big thing to run on in the first half of the decade of the 1990's but then everybody forgot about the term limit pledges after Clinton's re-election in 1996 along with the good economy of the decade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Congressional Republicans launched a direct attack on New Jersey when they withheld Hurricane Sandy aid because they were upset over how nice Christie was to Obama. It shouldn't be any wonder that voters are upset with the House GOP. They deserve what they're going to get.

[hopper]

Congressional Republicans launched a direct attack on New Jersey when they withheld Hurricane Sandy aid because they were upset over how nice Christie was to Obama. It shouldn't be any wonder that voters are upset with the House GOP. They deserve what they're going to get.

Nobody is gonna run on Sandy Aid in 2014. Its not about Sandy Aid its about the Government Shutdown or was since the web site(healthcare.gov) is a debacle.

[DrScholl]

Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton and John Spratt were all safe, until they lost. I'm not particularly sold on the idea that any Republican in an Obama district is safe, no matter how much people supposedly like them. You could argue the PVI's are lower than most conservadems had when they lost Republican seats, but at this point, polarization is so high, 54% Obama is good enough to get a Republican the boot. LoBiondo received his lowest winning percentage last year, against a nobody candidate, so he's a legitimate target.

[publicunofficial]

Congressional Republicans launched a direct attack on New Jersey when they withheld Hurricane Sandy aid because they were upset over how nice Christie was to Obama. It shouldn't be any wonder that voters are upset with the House GOP. They deserve what they're going to get.

Nobody is gonna run on Sandy Aid in 2014. Its not about Sandy Aid its about the Government Shutdown or was since the web site(healthcare.gov) is a debacle.

Do you honestly think the healthcare.gov site not working is going to matter in November 2014?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is Assad running again?

[Mr.Phips]

Runyan's seat is tough for Dems without Cherry Hill.  LoBiondo is likely safe if he runs again, but Dems would likely be favored in an open seat race in the 2nd, which is a much stronger Democratic heritage than the 3rd, which has almost none.

[morgieb]

Is Assad running again?

ASSAD FOR CONGRESS 2014!!!

I'd like to see him run under a Tea Party moinker or something, if only so he can split the vote.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Is Assad running again?

He's already confirmed to be in.

[badgate]

Is Assad running again?

He's already confirmed to be in.

There is now a debt clock on his website, so maybe he is pandering to the Tea Party.

[hopper]

Is Assad running again?

ASSAD FOR CONGRESS 2014!!!

I'd like to see him run under a Tea Party moinker or something, if only so he can split the vote.

Who is Assad? Are you just doing troll messages?

[hopper]

Congressional Republicans launched a direct attack on New Jersey when they withheld Hurricane Sandy aid because they were upset over how nice Christie was to Obama. It shouldn't be any wonder that voters are upset with the House GOP. They deserve what they're going to get.

Nobody is gonna run on Sandy Aid in 2014. Its not about Sandy Aid its about the Government Shutdown or was since the web site(healthcare.gov) is a debacle.

Do you honestly think the healthcare.gov site not working is going to matter in November 2014?

Well no, but I think the Republicans get some reprieve(not totally) on the Government Shutdown.

[MalaspinaGold]

Is Assad running again?

ASSAD FOR CONGRESS 2014!!!

I'd like to see him run under a Tea Party moinker or something, if only so he can split the vote.

Who is Assad? Are you just doing troll messages?

I believe he was an old forum member.

[Lambsbread]

D+1 for both.

And yes, Mike Assad is a former forum member who is quite active in NJ politics.

[Paul Kemp]

Is Assad running again?

ASSAD FOR CONGRESS 2014!!!

I'd like to see him run under a Tea Party moinker or something, if only so he can split the vote.

Who is Assad? Are you just doing troll messages?

Who are you?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Runyan's seat is tough for Dems without Cherry Hill.  LoBiondo is likely safe if he runs again, but Dems would likely be favored in an open seat race in the 2nd, which is a much stronger Democratic heritage than the 3rd, which has almost none.

LoBiondo's seat has trended more Democratic, but it wasn't always that way.  It was the seat that was once held by the conservative Republican Rep. Charles Sandman (R-NJ).  Sandman was elected in 1970 and in 1973 he successfully challenged incumbent 1st term Gov. William Cahill in the GOP primary.  He won, but in the general election, he was absolutely creamed by Democrat Brendan Byrne.  Then, in 1974, Democrat William Hughes, a somewhat conservative Democrat who ran a close race against Sandman in 1970, beat Sandman convincingly in the Watergate year.  At the time Hughes retired it was assumed that the seat would switch parties, and it did, as LoBiondo won.  Hughes was a guy who won repeatedly, despite the GOP carrying his district in Presidential contests. 

[Keystone Phil]

Is Assad running again?

He's already confirmed to be in.

There is now a debt clock on his website, so maybe he is pandering to the Tea Party.

Did anyone think he was going to run to the left of a liberal GOP Congressman in a Republican primary?

By the way, Hughes, Jr. is running as a fiscal conservative and supposedly was hesitant when asked about Obamacare in a radio interview. People can stop thinking this is some Likely Dem district any time now.