States that bucked the electoral trend

[eric82oslo]

In almost every presidential election, there are states going in the opposite direction of where the wind blows that year. With that I mean that a state can witness a growth in the percentage for the party which retracts on a national level compared to the last election. In 2012 this happened with a good handful of states, which experienced a growth in the Democratic votes relative to the Republican votes. Let's have a longer view looking at several elections back in recent memory and compare them with the 2012 outcome. So I ask again: Which states bucked the trend?

2008-2012: 45 +GOP vs 6 +Dem

National trend: GOP +3.41%
States that bucked the trend: (6)

*Alaska - Dem +7.55%
*New Jersey - Dem +2.24%
*Mississippi - Dem +1.67%
*Louisiana - Dem +1.42%
*New York - Dem +1.32%
*Maryland - Dem +0.64%


2004-2012: 41 +Dem vs 10 +GOP

National trend: Dem +6.32%
States that bucked the trend: (10)

*Arkansas - GOP +13.93%
*West Virginia - GOP +13.9%
*Tennessee - GOP +6.13%
*Kentucky - GOP +2.83%
*Louisiana - GOP +2.7%
*Utah - GOP +2.5%
*Oklahoma - GOP +2.4%
*Missouri - GOP +2.18%
*Massachusetts - GOP +2.02%
*Wyoming - GOP +1.03%


2000-2012: 36 Dem+ vs 15 GOP+

National trend: Dem +3.34%
States that bucked the trend: (15)

*West Virginia - GOP +20.44%
*Arkansas - GOP +18.25%
*Tennessee - GOP +16.54%
*Oklahoma - GOP +11.66%
*Louisiana - GOP +9.53%
*Kentucky - GOP +7.56%
*Utah - GOP +7.55%
*Alabama - GOP +7.27%
*Missouri - GOP +6.04%
*Massachusetts - GOP +4.16%
*Arizona - GOP +2.77%
*Rhode Island - GOP +1.62%
*Kansas - GOP +0.92%
*Wyoming - GOP +0.76%
*Connecticut - GOP +0.14%


1996-2012: 37 GOP+ vs 14 Dem+

National trend: GOP +4.66%
States that bucked the trend: (14)

*Hawaii - Dem +17.42%
*Vermont - Dem +13.34%
*California - Dem +10.23%
*Maryland - Dem +10.09%
*Washington D.C. +7.78%
*Colorado - Dem +6.74%
*Virginia - Dem +5.83%
*Nevada - Dem +5.66%
*Oregon - Dem +4.0%
*Alaska - Dem +3.54%
*Delaware - Dem +3.38%
*New Mexico - Dem +2.82%
*North Carolina - Dem +2.65%
*Washington - Dem +2.33%

I might continue with 1992 and 1988 another day.

Any comments? Any a-ha moments?

[barfbag]

It's interesting that you're going back a ways. Too often trends are looked at individually which can be deceiving. Analyzing trends by a single election must be done carefully. For example, a significant trend would include a state being within single digits and trending by more than three points. Going back to 2000 doesn't look too surprising. Nice work!

[Non Swing Voter]

This is really good analysis (I feel like some of the posts here are so well researched it's a shame you guys aren't getting PhD class credits for this work).

The most interesting state on that list to me is Alaska.  I wonder if anyone with information about that state can venture to guess why that state trended so much... I suppose it's partly because Sarah Palin wasn't on the ticket, but you'd expect a much bigger trend from Arizona in that case.

[barfbag]

This is really good analysis (I feel like some of the posts here are so well researched it's a shame you guys aren't getting PhD class credits for this work).

The most interesting state on that list to me is Alaska.  I wonder if anyone with information about that state can venture to guess why that state trended so much... I suppose it's partly because Sarah Palin wasn't on the ticket, but you'd expect a much bigger trend from Arizona in that case.

Alaska's trend is puzzling. Maybe Sarah Palin's celebrity status after being governor hurt Republicans in the state by association of party affiliation?

2000 +23
2004 +23
2008 +28*
2012 +18

Let's say McCain wins 57-41 instead of 59-38 without Palin in 2008. Now we're only looking at a 5 point trend which isn't all that significant for a state as small as Alaska.

[Sol]

Historically, Alaska Natives were a competitive demographic, although still somewhat D-leaning. Last year, they swung hugely to Obama.