Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[rob in cal]

  I hate those majority premium seats. Btw,  how would things shake out if it happens that 5Star, the PD and the right wing parties all get about a third of a seats.  What kind of a coalition would likely emerge from that?

[SPQR]

  I hate those majority premium seats. Btw,  how would things shake out if it happens that 5Star, the PD and the right wing parties all get about a third of a seats.  What kind of a coalition would likely emerge from that?

PD and the moderate center-right...which, as it is, is represented by Berlusconi's Forza Italia (....)

The newspapers were talking a lot about the possibily of a pact between M5S and Lega Nord, with the latter agreeing to a minority government of the former (who, in this way, could still claim they have no allies).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I used to hate the majority premium but now I think it's the least of several evils in a political culture like Italy's.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**king activist judges. I'm starting to think Berlusconi had a point.

[palandio]

Rejoice, Antonio!

D'Alema threatens to split from the PD if there are new elections without a new electoral law.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rejoice, Antonio!

D'Alema threatens to split from the PD if there are new elections without a new electoral law.

As if there weren't enough good reasons to have new elections ASAP already!

[SPQR]

Rejoice, Antonio!

D'Alema threatens to split from the PD if there are new elections without a new electoral law.

D'Alema is, politically wise, a criminal.
Nothing less, nothing more.

[SPQR]

Meanwhile in Italy...

At the latest PD meeting, Renzi called for an early Congress, saying that he would resign in order for it to be in the next few months rather than in 2018.
This was supposed to calm the PD minority, who threatened to break away if there were early elections without a congress.

Guess what their response was? At the meeting, Bersani, Speranza, Rossi and co. said "great". Then, the day after, Bersani said to the press that "it can't go on like this, the PD is already split", and there are rumours that they will boycott the general assembly in the next weekend, which should officially call for the early congress.

This is beyond pathetic.

[palandio]

It's happening!

Parts of the anti-Renzi minority faction inside the PD are splitting from it to form a new party, the DP (Democrats and Progressives), also including some of the earlier PD splinters.

I'm really not sure how this is going to end. It's the first time that several of the real bigwhigs are leaving the PD (Bersani, D'Alema, Rossi, Errani, etc.), so if they manage to pull much of the ex-DS (Democrats of the Left) vote, they could get up to 15%. On the other hand I doubt that they really have that much influence left, so they might as well end up as an epic train-wreck in political nonone's land.

Emiliano (governor of Puglia) is staying within the PD to challenge Renzi.

[jaichind]

It's happening!

Parts of the anti-Renzi minority faction inside the PD are splitting from it to form a new party, the DP (Democrats and Progressives), also including some of the earlier PD splinters.

I'm really not sure how this is going to end. It's the first time that several of the real bigwhigs are leaving the PD (Bersani, D'Alema, Rossi, Errani, etc.), so if they manage to pull much of the ex-DS (Democrats of the Left) vote, they could get up to 15%. On the other hand I doubt that they really have that much influence left, so they might as well end up as an epic train-wreck in political nonone's land.

Emiliano (governor of Puglia) is staying within the PD to challenge Renzi.

Not sure if I am reading this SWG poll correctly but

http://scenaripolitici.com/2017/02/sondaggio-swg-24-febbraio-2017.html

seems to indicate that such a party will have 3.2% support.  Of course this was before the party which seems to be called Democrats and Progressives (DP) was kicked off officially.  Perhaps now it is formed its level of support might increase.

[palandio]

Interesting!

And 3.2% is really bad, I'm really wondering why they're committing political suicide.
Only thing is that Progressive Camp founded by Ex-Milan mayor Pisapia was also polled and got 3.9%.

Another poll by Lorien:
http://scenaripolitici.com/2017/02/sondaggio-lorien-24-febbraio-2017.html
According to this poll the maximum potential for the DP is at 11%, but there's a heavy overlap with Progressive Camp and the PD itself.

All of this once again confirms that since 2007/08 to the left of the PD there isn't really that much space anymore (except when you count Grillo-style eclectic populism). And it gets worse because usually when all the left-wing splinters combine forces the result is much less than the sum of its components.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Polls taken before the party is even announced are useless

[ApatheticAustrian]

may i ask if this is more about bruised egos or the actual differences? (yeah, yeah, both i guess)

awful.....the right is so much better at sticking together when it counts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At the very best, DP is going to start off around 5-6% and go downhill from there. Soon they will be an irrelevance, and Italian politics will be all the better for it.

You know, the saddest thing in all this for me is that, when the PD left is actually talking about policy, political culture, what it means to be left-wing etc., I completely agree with them. I think Renzi is a delusional third-wayite bent on turning the PD into some postmodern reincarnation of the DC. I'd love to see the Italian left actually embrace left-wing politics again and try to be a force for change rather than sheepishly accepting the neoliberal status quo.

These are all the things Bersani, D'Alema, Speranza etc. say, but when it actually comes to doing something, it's always in their narrow, short-term, petty interest. They sure didn't seem to give a sh*t about left-wing values when they supported the Letta government, or when they allied with Salvini and Berlusconi against the referendum. They're just petty, self-righteous hypocrites who desecrate all the great left-wing ideals they claim to defend. They're worthless hacks and the Italian left is better off about them. I'd rather have a sincere Blairite than f**king Molletists.

Emiliano seems different though. I'm glad he made the right choice and stayed. I'm leaning toward voting for him in the primary.

[ApatheticAustrian]

my knowledge of italian politics is quite limited but...isn't it quire hard anyway, to get anything done in italy, without selling your soul to 5-6 other groups and pray that your proposals fly through the parliament?

makes me often wonder how the country is able to stay as functionable as it does.....

[Antonio the Sixth]

my knowledge of italian politics is quite limited but...isn't it quire hard anyway, to get anything done in italy, without selling your soul to 5-6 other groups and pray that your proposals fly through the parliament?

Yeah. That's one of the things Renzi wanted to change, but thanks to Bersani&co standing up for MUH CONSTITUTION that will never happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

[SPQR]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

[Lord Halifax]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

Nothing, really. Lega/FdI and M5S might have a lot in common rhetorically, but there's no way they'd actually govern together.

Italian-boy, what's your opinion on the Consip affair? This looks pretty damning to me tbh. I don't see how Renzi gets out of it politically, even if he's not directly involved in the inquiry.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is DISGUSTING.

i was always more critical of 5 stars than most leftist but since 1-2 years they have gone full-public-enemy.

some people just want to see the world burn.

[SPQR]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

Nothing, really. Lega/FdI and M5S might have a lot in common rhetorically, but there's no way they'd actually govern together.

Italian-boy, what's your opinion on the Consip affair? This looks pretty damning to me tbh. I don't see how Renzi gets out of it politically, even if he's not directly involved in the inquiry.

It's the only chance M5S has of governing with a proportional electoral law, so I wouldn't rule it out really. Especially if Forza Italia declines an alliance with the hard right.


As for CONSIP, I don't know, there have been loooooots of enquiries which have then turned out to be nothing. The evidence which has come out on the newspapers is far from damning, to be honest.
What is troubling is the fact that it adds up to Verdini being condemned a few days ago, to the split up of PD and its congress, to the continuous attacks by the M5S on the government... it's not a nice moment for Renzi and the center-left in general.
But as for the CONSIP enquiry itself, I'm skeptical.

[Max Stirner]

pisapia and emiliano are very ridiculous, useful idiots of renzi...

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think italy is going to rue rejecting the renzi-rendum in more ways than usually imagined.

[Lord Halifax]

pisapia and emiliano are very ridiculous, useful idiots of renzi...

How so?