Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway I'll start working on some maps later today.

[Diouf]

Calabria finished. Another 3 seats for M5S and one for FI.

Centre-right 27
Lega 9
Forza Italia 11
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Andrea]

Campania and Sicilia finished. 20 additional seats, all M5S.

Centre-right 26
Lega 9
Forza Italia 10
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 35

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

The big ones left are

TOSCANA and EMILIA-ROMAGNA: most likely evenly split between Center-Right and Center-Left
LAZIO: Mostly Center-Right
LOMBARDIA:  Most likely near Center-Right (really Lega) sweep

Center-left won one of the Milan constituencies at Senate. Rest of the region is all Center-Right.

Toscana is 4 FPTP seats for Center-Right and 3 Center-Left
Emilia Romagna is 4 Center-right and 4 Center-Left
Lazio is likely 6 Center Right, 3 5 Stars, 1 for Emma Bonino

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a nice image, all credit goes to Oliver at the alternate history forum.

[Meeker]

Is there a portion of M5S that would never tolerate going into a coalition with Lega?

[TheSaint250]

Is there a portion of M5S that would never tolerate going into a coalition with Lega?

From what I can guess, it's more likely than not that M5S avoids Lega. The party does not go to the right as much as Lega and (to more directly answer your question) does have a notable left-wing branch. In addition, besides looking to cut back on migrant numbers, the party seems to be mainly made up of centrist and center-left positions.

It does look like many PD voters and others leaning to the left voted for M5S, and I doubt they would be happy if the party sided with Lega.

(If someone could enlighten me on M5S's ideological stance, please do.)

[DavidB.]

From EuropeElects:
Matteo Salvini, leader of Lega Nord (LN-ENF) refutes possibility of alliance with M5S (EFDD), will stick to Center-Right coalition commitment#Elezioni4Marzo2018 #ItalyElection #Lega

[Diouf]

Lombardia finished.

Centre-right 44
Lega 17
Forza Italia 17
FdI 8
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 6
PD 3
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[CatoMinor]

How long should it take to get the final seat count?

[Diouf]

How long should it take to get the final seat count?

Less than 100 polling places are left to announce their result, so it shouldn't be too long. However, all results are needed before the proportional seats can be officially announced as well. There is a few seats from Italians abroad, that might take a bit longer to get results from.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a nice image, all credit goes to Oliver at the alternate history forum.

Guys, you can host your maps on this very site using the image gallery (top right corner of the page). Stop posting links to broken images.

[DavidB.]

So Salvini doesn't want to talk about an M5S-LN majority government. I think this is powerplay: as the leader of the largest party in the largest "bloc", Salvini wants to have the initiative to form a government first (and to become PM). Once that doesn't work out, Salvini's tactical commitment to the center-right alliance can be dropped and M5S-LN should still be on the table.

[Meeker]

This is the best results page I've been able to find in the media: http://elezioni.repubblica.it/2018/cameradeideputati

[Diouf]

Toscana also done. 

Centre-right 48
Lega 18
Forza Italia 19
FdI 9
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 9
PD 5
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1

[Diouf]

Emilia-Romagna done. Only Sardinia and Lazio left.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a nice image, all credit goes to Oliver at the

Guys, you can host your maps on this very site using the image gallery (top right corner of the page). Stop posting links to broken images.

It works for me since it isn't coming from imgur but instead alternate history forum. Anyway, here is a reupload. Also I should add, he made this a while ago, so things probably changed.

[Diouf]

M5S swept the three Sardinia seats. Now we are only waiting for Lazio, and we should have the full results.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 41

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

[jaichind]

So it seems that it is possible to vote for a FPTP candidate without voting for a party.  How does it work.  Does the voter mark off the name of the candidate and not the party?

[TheSaint250]

The crumbling of the center-left is certainly continuing this year. Looking at the situation from 10 years ago compared to today is even worse.

[FrancoAgo]

lazio 2 M5S 1 +Europa, 6 cdx, 1 toss up

[jaichind]

M5S swept the three Sardinia seats. Now we are only waiting for Lazio, and we should have the full results.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 41

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

How did you figure out the party identity of the FPTP winners?  None of the sites I looked at has that info.

[FrancoAgo]

So it seems that it is possible to vote for a FPTP candidate without voting for a party.  How does it work.  Does the voter mark off the name of the candidate and not the party?

yes, but this are reappointed to parties proportionally in the coalition or directly if is a single list candidate

[jaichind]

lazio 2 M5S 1 +Europa, 6 cdx, 1 toss up

I thought there are 2 tossups (3rd (center-right ahead) and 4th (M5S ahead))

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I said: Italy counts slower than Atlanta.

[DavidB.]