On Weiland: there are several issues that may be causing these results. The most obvious is biased polling/inclusion of a libertarian who'll suck votes from Rounds. Additionally, though, Rounds has been publicly pro-shutdown/default while Weiland has been very anti-shutdown, which lets Weiland hit Rounds on the farm bill, social security, veterans benefits, etc. But more importantly (there was an
NPR report on this, otherwise I'd have had no idea, hasn't gotten a lot of news coverage) there was a massive blizzard in western South Dakota a week or two ago, with tens thousands of cattle dead. There's been basically no response because of the government shutdown, which Weiland (as a former FEMA director) can use.