MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead
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  MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead
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Author Topic: MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead  (Read 4321 times)
dmmidmi
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« Reply #25 on: October 16, 2013, 07:29:27 AM »

Junky, but even if you unskew this it looks like Snyder is recovering. You could even argue for Tilt R now.

This is, by far, the most reasonable and accurate post in this thread. Snyder's current ad blitz might be helping, but my guess (without seeing any polling to confirm this) is that Medicaid expansion and his handling of the Detroit bankruptcy process will significantly help his re-election chances.

It certainly won't be the economy, because the unemployment rate has gone essentially unchanged for nearly two years. And while most polls showed support/opposition for Right to Work in Michigan to be pretty close, its effects largely haven't been felt yet: http://www.freep.com/article/20130901/BUSINESS06/309010025/.

Coupled with Mark Schauer's virtually non-existent campaign, and absolutely no threat of a primary challenger from the right (so they've threatened to go after Lt. Gov. Brian Calley--illustrating how pathetic the Tea Party is in Michigan), and it seems like Snyder is going to be in really good shape for re-election next year.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: October 16, 2013, 09:13:38 AM »

This polling firm had Obama and Romney tied last year... joke poll!

Why are all of the Michigan polling firms God awful?

Mackinac Institution, a right-wing think tank. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2013, 10:54:19 AM »

This is the only poll showing a downswing on Dems. Every poll thus far, since the shutdown has been favorable, Synder is no more than four Pts ahead and Peters is 3 Pts ahead.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2013, 03:29:35 PM »

My question in all of this is why is Rick Snyder running ahead of Terri Land. Is Mark Schauer That bad of a candidate?
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2013, 03:32:57 PM »

My question in all of this is why is Rick Snyder running ahead of Terri Land. Is Mark Schauer That bad of a candidate?

Well even though Land is a lot stronger than Snyder, Peters is also a lot stronger than Schauer. No matter what happens, Michigan's Class 2 Senator will probably be better than its Governor from 2014-2018. There's also the fact that Snyder is an incumbent, whereas the Senate seat is currently held by a Democrat.
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morgieb
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2013, 10:41:10 PM »

My question in all of this is why is Rick Snyder running ahead of Terri Land. Is Mark Schauer That bad of a candidate?
Incumbency? Michigan being more willing to elect state Republicans than federal Republicans?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2013, 12:40:32 AM »

My question in all of this is why is Rick Snyder running ahead of Terri Land. Is Mark Schauer That bad of a candidate?


Snyder is an incumbent, and Schauer hasn't really done much with his campaign yet except announce and fundraise a bit.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2013, 07:08:50 AM »

My question in all of this is why is Rick Snyder running ahead of Terri Land. Is Mark Schauer That bad of a candidate?

Snyder gets an awful lot of front-page headlines, so it's easy to have an opinion of him. Furthermore, he's likely to receive a lot of crossover support, due to his position on Medicaid expansion, the bridge, and a few other things.

And this is certainly my guess (so take it with a grain of salt), but I imagine that when people are polled about the Senate race, they're essentially being asked "Do you plan on voting for the Democrat from Metro Detroit, or the Republican from Grand Rapids?" Neither campaign has really started, and neither candidate has done anything to show that they'll stray far from their respective party's platform.
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CnstutnlCnsrvatv
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« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2013, 02:32:40 PM »

this race is likely r, it would proalby be safer if the michigan didnt bus in brown ones from nearby chicago to swing the election and do a motorcycle gang voter fraud and ask for free handouts, snyder is an ok governor, i like what he did with unions and other cry babies in michigan
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2013, 12:39:31 AM »

this race is likely r, it would proalby be safer if the michigan didnt bus in brown ones from nearby chicago to swing the election and do a motorcycle gang voter fraud and ask for free handouts, snyder is an ok governor, i like what he did with unions and other cry babies in michigan

The unions are going to have one big GOTV drive in Michigan. Snyder ran as a moderate and has gone far to the Right on reproductive rights as well. 2014 will have a vastly-different political climate from 2010.

The bridge is a good idea, and so is Medicaid expansion -- but on those he did nothing that a Democrat couldn't do.

Scott Walker without the corruption.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2013, 02:13:34 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2013, 07:11:27 PM by pbrower2a »



Nate Silver has something here. Michigan has lots of  one-state pollsters, and most of them lean clearly R. If those pollsters were right, then we would have never gotten this result:

Michigan      total votes -- 4,743,887    margin 49,313        Obama/Biden  2,564,569 (54.06%)

Romney/Ryan 2,115,256  (44.59%)   

margin 49,313 (9.47% D)


others    64,062 (1.35%)


There really was no big late-season collapse by Romney. Polls in Michigan from May to late August by pollsters other than the forgettable "We Ask America" had President Obama getting winning Michigan by about 7%, and he won by about 2.5% more.

Now -- are one-state pollsters useful? Maybe if they are university polls. At least with those one has some effort at objectivity. One may have professors of political science or statistics in charge, and such people may have their objectivity on the line.  Polls by or for special-interest groups get things right only by accident.

One can always have doubts on a poll on behalf of a labor union, trade association, or minority group. I would not trust a poll by the NAACP.

  
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #36 on: November 25, 2013, 10:07:37 PM »

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Mitchell/Detroit News on 2013-10-10

Summary: D: 36%, R: 50%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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