PUTTING YOUR OWN VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[Jake]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

It's the name.  A Democrat doesn't win by 30+ points by "doing a good job". Not in PA.  The reason almost 15% of Bush voters also voted for Casey was the name.  Same reason why Bill Scranton is still in the running to be Governor.  Casey isn't a fool, but he would never be where he is today without the name.

[12th Doctor]

casey=klink part 2

Sorry but you really can't compare the two.

except one is running on a famous name.

And unfortunatley that's what gives him a clear edge.

Remember what I said about the Philly burbs, though.

Remember too that Santorum has been in office for 6 more years now and he, himself, has gained a bigger name.  That's something he earned.  It wasn't just handed to him.

[Wakie]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

You're a joke. His name is why he is a candidate. His name is the reason why he is a State Treasurer.

He's the candidate for several reasons.

1) He's a moderate ... probably the most famous PA Dem moderate.
2) He does have a famous name.  But then again so does Chris Heinz and he isn't running.
3) He's done a great job as auditor general.
4) He won his last election by an obscenely large margin.

[12th Doctor]

Also, Casey's credability has suffered, in my mind, at least.  He basically ran for an important state possition that he clearly had no intention of holding onto.

[Keystone Phil]

casey=klink part 2

Sorry but you really can't compare the two.

except one is running on a famous name.

And unfortunatley that's what gives him a clear edge.

Remember what I said about the Philly burbs, though.

And I agree; however, he is still disliked.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

You're a joke. His name is why he is a candidate. His name is the reason why he is a State Treasurer.

He's the candidate for several reasons.

1) He's a moderate ... probably the most famous PA Dem moderate.
2) He does have a famous name.  But then again so does Chris Heinz and he isn't running.
3) He's done a great job as auditor general.
4) He won his last election by an obscenely large margin.

1) So was Klink.
2) Casey is more well liked than Heinz.
3) That's not the reason why he's running.
4) ...because of his name.

[Nation]

I dunno, I think people are underestimating Santorum. Casey will most likely run a good race and win, but it's going to be a lot closer than folks think. That's my opinion.

[Cashcow]

It amuses me that the non-Pennsylvanians are the ones saying Santorum will win, while almost everyone in the state disagrees.

[The Dowager Mod]

Putting my own views aside i still don't really care.

[Keystone Phil]

It amuses me that the non-Pennsylvanians are the ones saying Santorum will win, while almost everyone in the state disagrees.

I will say though that it's very possible for this thing to turn around and end up a Santorum win. Not by 5-6 points but he could win.

[WMS]

The important thing to note is, Santorum, ideologically is closer to the philly burbs than casey is...

they might both be far out...but Santorum's to the moon, Casey...Mars.

 Enough to counter the RINO's of Philadelphia?

Actually, the Republicans of Philadelphia are rather conservative. Take, for example, Northeast Philadelphia Republicans (that would be me). Most are much more conservative than our Republican counterparts in the suburbs (maybe that's what you were thinking about).

Ah, yes, the Bullmoose suburban Republicans are what I was thinking of.

[bullmoose88]

I still don't know how I'm personally voting...

I'm leaning slightly to Casey (his name is gold in this state, I generally like him, plus I dislike Santorum).

Whether that changes in a year and a half (Casey slips up, Santorum redeems himself or the libertarians are the only option) remains to be seen.

[Smash255]

Casey will win the Philly burbs for the reason that he isn't Santorum.  Casey being a moderate Dem & pro-life will help him much more in the western portion of the state than it will hurt him in the Philly burbs. 

[12th Doctor]

It amuses me that the non-Pennsylvanians are the ones saying Santorum will win, while almost everyone in the state disagrees.

I'm making the case that Santorum will win.  Bullmoose kinda agrees with me.

[12th Doctor]

The latest poll only shows Casey up by 5%.  I would say that is very good news for Santorum.  I would have honestly expected it to be more like 10%-15% heading out of the gate.

[Frodo]

A lot can happen in a year, but if all things are the same I'd say Casey is a shoe-in.  PA is a moderate state and what we have here is a moderate Dem vs an extremist Repub.

Throw in Santorum's latest move to do away with many of the labor laws (that will go over like a lead brick in Pittsburgh) and you have a guy who seems to want to lose and lose badly.

let's not get ahead of ourselves -i don't want to see the Pennsylvania Democratic Party get so complacent with expectations of a Casey win that they sleep while Santorum works like a busy little bee (and i choose this metaphor from the the movie 'Gladiator' purposefully) in getting support for his reelection bid.  let us assume that Santorum has the edge as the incumbent, and that Casey is the underdog with a very real chance of losing, and fight like hell to win, rather than expecting the seat to fall into our laps.  because i fully expect that Republicans will work furiously and laboriously to ensure thet Santorum wins a second term -therefore let us not sleep at the wheel. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As much as I think the GOP would like the left-wing of the Democratic party to stay home, they simply aren't.  Not when they have a chance to knock off Rick Santorum.  Seriously, Santorum has the image of being one of the most conservative guys in the Senate.  That alone will fire up my side's base.

yes. Like I said, I would vote for Pinochet over Santorum.

[AuH2O]

The number of rabidly anti-Santorum people is far lower than many people seem to believe. Most voters just aren't involved enough in politics to have that strong of feelings.

[bullmoose88]

I still can't believe I'm possibly contemplating voting for Rick.

*shocked*

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still can't believe I'm possibly contemplating voting for Rick.

*shocked*

I know Casey isn't your type of ideology, but is he a nutcase who has a bizarre obsession with man on dog sex? Think of it that way.

[bullmoose88]

I still can't believe I'm possibly contemplating voting for Rick.

*shocked*

I know Casey isn't your type of ideology, but is he a nutcase who has a bizarre obsession with man on dog sex? Think of it that way.

Put it this way. I doubt Santorum-policy wise-is significantly different from Casey on social issues.

Then it becomes a question of economics (and clout)...santorum wins.

Like I said...lots of time to figure this out.

[danwxman]

The number of rabidly anti-Santorum people is far lower than many people seem to believe. Most voters just aren't involved enough in politics to have that strong of feelings.

Santorum's base, especially in western PA,  isn't all that thrilled with him either after his negative press.

[Democratic Hawk]

Casey - he is the kind of Democrat, who can defeat Santorum and the sooner PA Democrats unite behind him (i.e. no bruising primary), the better

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

I still can't believe I'm possibly contemplating voting for Rick.

*shocked*

I know Casey isn't your type of ideology, but is he a nutcase who has a bizarre obsession with man on dog sex? Think of it that way.

Put it this way. I doubt Santorum-policy wise-is significantly different from Casey on social issues.

Then it becomes a question of economics (and clout)...santorum wins.

Like I said...lots of time to figure this out.

I'm glad to see you're looking at it that way.

[12th Doctor]

Remember, Casey's performance in the 2002 Democratic Primary was not impressive.  It was not simply because Rendell had Philadelphia, either.

It was because Casey is not the type of Democrat who Democrats in PA can warm up to for such an important office.  There is going to be a fight.  Peopel from Philadelphia will get behind a socially liberal fiscally moderate-to-conservative candidate.

In the general election, I would not be suprised to see an insurgent Left-wing candidate from the Green Party or other political party.

Specter (assuming he is loyal and has some gratitude) will, unlike 2000, use his organization to help Santorum.  I trust Specter's organization before Rendell's any day of the week.  They have been in the game a lot longer.

It will be close, but no one should assume that Casey has any advantages right now.