Statistical tie. Right now looks like a pure toss-up, but look at this...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?
34% Approve
62% Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?
34% Approve
48% Disapprove
Who do you blame most for the federal government shutdown?
40% President Obama and the Democrats
35% Republicans in Congress
24% Both are equally to blame
Obama's approval is even worse than the 37% of the vote he got in Arkansas in 2012. And a 48-34 disapproval is horrible for an incumbent up for re-election. On top of that, a plurality of people blame the democrats and Obama for the shutdown! Republicans have a massive blame lead in the polls but not in red state Arkansas. This is amazing what were seeing here besides the original question. Also:
Angry Hillary supporters.
