LA Mayor's race

[The Duke]

imagine how powerful Democrats would be in New York City if they could achieve the same level of success in settling differences between the two largest constituencies in such major urban centers as they have done in Los Angeles:

A Black-Latino Coalition Emerges in Los Angeles
By JOHN M. BRODER

Published: April 24, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/national/24mayor.html?

Its not a real coalition , though.  Its simply the one time result of Hahn firing Bernie Parks as police chief.

Not all politics is local, but local politics sure is.  Its about pleasing geographic and ethnic constituencies.  Hahn angered a constituency by firing a black man.  Unless Antonio expects to run for re-election against Hahn, he can forget about keeping black voters in 2009.

Black voters aren't a huge chunk of the electorate anyway in LA.

[Moooooo]

LA-Mayor: Hahn Cracks in Debate

From Swing State Project:

Struggling in the polls, Hahn assumed the role of a challenger, accusing Villaraigosa of being the candidate of inertia and shopworn ideas.

"(Villaraigosa) wants to defend the status quo," said Hahn, who is seeking a second, four-year term.

When the incumbent calls the challenger the status quo candidate it is time for a serious ass whoopin. If that isn't enough evidence, you know Villaraigosa is going to win when Hahn is bogged down in denials:

Hahn responded by saying that "no one has found that anyone has done anything wrong in my administration so far."

[Beet]

LA has a subway (Route map here).  No one, and I mean no one, rides the thing.  Last time anyone even saw one of our trains was the climactic scene in SpeedHonestly, I don't even know where my nearest station is.

A subway will never be a viable solution for LA since the city is so huge.  It is by far the largest city in America in area, with parts of the San Fernando Valley 30-40 miles from downtown LA, or the same distance from downtown LA as Anaheim.

The construction of a subway system would be:

1. Prohibitively expensive given the area it would have to cover to even be a viable option for most people.

2. Laughable to most voters, since we have empty trains running underground since they tried it last time.

Not that I live in LA, and yes the following are quotes from dkos readers, but it seems that traffic is the city's worst problem

"What I like about Antonio is that he has been pushing hard for a subway line extension, push the Red Line all the way to Santa Monica.  More rail wouldn't cure traffic woes (at least not unless we built like 200 miles of it), but it would make a big difference.

The other candidates offered just mealy-mouthed proposals about recalibrating traffic lights, as if that will do anything." - reader 1

"I move to Maine, and now they push the subway through to the Westside.  Bad timing!  About time they found something to take the stress off those hideous MTA buses.  They got so bad that the riders (Often Latino groundskeepers, maids and such) formed a bus rider's union, complete with ad campaigns depicting the contrast between the spacious white-collar commuter lines and the overcrowded  blue-collar buslines.
My recollection is that the big obstacle to a Westside connection was Beverly Hills, who ostensibly didn't want 'undesirables' being shuttled through their premises.  This is a class warfare perfected by LA basin municipalities:  if you don't like LA, secede!  That'll keep property values up, and the little people can go stuff themselves."- reader 2

"...And my pet peeve is that he campaigned on improving traffic intersections (better timing, more left turn signals) but almost nothing has happened."

"If anyone can name another accomplishment, I'd like to hear it. Hahn has just wasted four years in office while traffic gets worse.  And believe me, traffic is L.A.'s worst problem.  Other than traffic this place is a paradise (unless you are in a high crime, gang infested neighborhood of course)." - reader 3

"No one here is willing to bite the bullet and deal with traffic.  When Richard Riordan was elected Mayor in 1993, he made the suggestion that two major East-West thoroughfares, Olympic and Pico Boulevards, be made one way.  The idea was that Olympic would be Westbound from downtown LA to Santa Monica and Pico (parallel and about two blocks South of Olympic) would be Eastbound.  All the traffic lights would be timed and traffic could move along at a comfortable 35 mph.  Nothing was ever done. " - reader 4

"Traffic is very important (none / 0)

And I'm not referring strictly to commuters, but the very act of doing business in LA: you have to drive everywhere, Everywhere.
Look at the manhours lost for shipping companies, deliveries, communications. We have got to get this under control.

It also has an impact on quality of life. Many people are curtailing their routines as a result of the delays and frustration.

Many of us are also ready to throttle every single human who gets in our way. Civility on the road is nearly extinct." - reader 5

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is by far the largest city in America in area

Actually it is only 14th: http://www.city-data.com/top8.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is by far the largest city in America in area

Actually it is only 14th: http://www.city-data.com/top8.html

Wow, Sitka, Alaska has a bit over 3 people per square mile. Alaska has some strange definition of a city.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

well a lot of times they will expand a city to include an entire county or rural areas surrounding it for some reason.

However as far as cities where the city limits contain only an actual city and not empty space, it is still beat by Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Houston and Phoenix.

[No more McShame]

Believe it or not, Phoenix actually contains several rural areas.

[Moooooo]

Villaraigosa Stomping Hahn:

Channel 7 released a new mayoral poll by Survey USA today. The results:


Villaraigosa: 62%
Hahn: 33%
Undecided: 5%

[Sarnstrom]

With the polls closing in a couple of hours I figured I'd give my prediction:

Villaraigosa        58%
Hahn                  42%

[Keystone Phil]

Prediction

Villaraigosa - 55%
Hahn - 45%

[Kodratos]

I was really hoping Hahn would pull this one out. It's sad that a man is going to get elected because of his race.

[Kodratos]

It is by far the largest city in America in area

Actually it is only 14th: http://www.city-data.com/top8.html

Wow, I can't believe that. They must not be including either of the valleys. Anyway it's by far the biggest metropolitan area in the country.

[Moooooo]

Prediction

Villaraigosa - 57%
Hahn - 43%

[bgwah]

53 villa-whatever
47-hahn

[King]

Prediction -

Villaraigosa: 61%
Hahn: 39%

[King]

With 9% precincts reporting:

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA    (61,435) 51.42%
JAMES KENNETH HAHN          (58,045) 48.58%

[Moooooo]

With 9% precincts reporting:

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA    (61,435) 51.42%
JAMES KENNETH HAHN          (58,045) 48.58%

I knew I should have guessed lower. I was actually going to guess 53-47 in favor of Villaraigosa.

[CARLHAYDEN]

With 9% precincts reporting:

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA    (61,435) 51.42%
JAMES KENNETH HAHN          (58,045) 48.58%

]]

Did they say where the precints were from?

[No more McShame]

http://cityclerk.lacity.org/clk/election/Results.htm

probably not the most up to date, but it does tell what council districts the reporting precints are in.  Somebody who knows more about LA than I would be able to make sence of it.

[Sam Spade]

With 9% precincts reporting:

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA    (61,435) 51.42%
JAMES KENNETH HAHN          (58,045) 48.58%

These are the absentee ballots.  Hahn needed to be winning these a margin in order to win.

Given these numbers, my prediction would be Villaraigosa 55%- Hahn 45%, much like Keystone Phil, though if I am off, it will be more votes to the Villaraigosa side than to the Hahn side.

[Beet]

With 56% precincts reporting:

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA          (175,941) 59.12%
JAMES KENNETH HAHN                 (121,662) 40.88%

[Frodo]

with 70% of precincts reporting, Villaraigosa  is still winning by a three to two margin. 

i congratulate him on his victory -i'll give him a year or so before passing judgment on his ability to govern.  i have seen comments on this thread that have a doom-and-gloom quality to them with regard to the prospects for Los Angeles of a Villaraigosa mayoralty.  besides the fact that everyone seems to be jumping the gun, i have never really believed them, since he has yet to prove himself.  so, everyone, give him a chance.  see how he performs as mayor before casting judgment on him.  you may be pleasantly suprised.     

[Moooooo]

With 98 percent of the city's precincts reporting...

Villaraigosa 59% (258,405)

Hahn 41% (182,582)

[minionofmidas]

Typical LA, someone does something about the crime problem and they railroad him out of the city (hall).

He basically threatened to lock them all up.

[King]

East LA votes against any white guy who wants to put their gang in jail.